Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.06 · now $13.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SWBI has typically landed between $10.84 and $15.37 — a range of −17.0% to +17.7% from the issuance price $13.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SWBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.05 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.2–$13.91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.84–$15.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-19 | −59.2% | −59.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-18 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-02-17 | +123.6% | +0.0% | +128.7% |
| 2009-02-18 | +122.5% | −0.6% | +124.4% |
| 2009-02-19 | +121.4% | +0.0% | +125.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Tengwall Kyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,721 | 147,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 4,481 | 576,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Withheld for tax | 880 | 158,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Withheld for tax | 653 | 121,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 23,473 | 580,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,854 | 122,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,660 | 159,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Award / grant | 90,956 | 604,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tengwall Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 14,618 | 155,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tengwall Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 29,234 | 29,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Award / grant | 27,612 | 166,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Award / grant | 55,222 | 55,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Award / grant | 27,612 | 129,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Award / grant | 55,222 | 55,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Award / grant | 181,912 | 181,912 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,211 | 98,914 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | SCOTT ROBERT L | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 89,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Lohmeier Michelle | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 38,161 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | MONHEIT BARRY M | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 24,822 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Diaz Fred M | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 48,615 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | BRITT ANITA D | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 68,029 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Suggs Denis G | director | Award / grant | 12,711 | 48,315 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 2,045 | 511,435 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Withheld for tax | 615 | 137,484 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Cupero Susan Jean | officer | Withheld for tax | 447 | 53,804 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 3,002 | 513,480 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Cupero Susan Jean | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,311 | 54,251 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Withheld for tax | 913 | 138,099 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Withheld for tax | 662 | 100,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 12,780 | 510,478 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Cupero Susan Jean | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,176 | 55,562 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,109 | 139,012 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,512 | 100,787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Award / grant | 147,898 | 523,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Award / grant | 44,898 | 103,299 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Smith Mark Peter | director | Award / grant | 295,794 | 295,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Award / grant | 44,898 | 143,121 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | McPherson Deana L | officer | Award / grant | 89,794 | 89,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Maxwell Kevin Alden | officer | Award / grant | 89,794 | 89,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Cupero Susan Jean | officer | Withheld for tax | 468 | 62,738 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.