SWSmurfit Westrock plcConsumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.58 · now $44.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SW has typically landed between $37.77 and $51.25 — a range of −15.3% to +15.0% from the issuance price $44.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,570 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-06-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.77worst · -15.3%$51.25best · +15.0%
  • now $44.58 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $44.93 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.92–$47.94
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.77–$51.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,570 windows spanning 2008-06-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-19−63.4%−63.4%+0.0%
2008-09-22−59.3%−59.3%+0.0%
2008-09-24−53.9%−53.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-21+144.2%+0.0%+144.2%
2009-04-20+144.2%+0.0%+144.2%
2009-04-17+144.2%+0.0%+144.2%

4,570 overlapping windows · 2008-06-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$25.5B
market cap
$0.72
EPS (TTM)
67.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$31.2B
'20'25
Net income$699M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr3.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.75
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $44.58$13.79$61.27
  • DCF (intrinsic)$26.32
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$17.07
  • Analyst target · range $50.00–$58.00$55.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$44.58

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+3.6%
n=18
Feb
50%
+2.1%
n=18
Mar
44%
−1.1%
n=18
Apr
61%
+4.2%
n=18
May
56%
+6.8%
n=18
Jun
39%
+1.0%
n=18
Jul
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Aug
63%
+6.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$322026-02-19: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — SMURFIT ANTHONY P J, Bowles Ken2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $782K — Sellier Laurent …2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $3.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SMURFIT ANTHONY P J — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bowles Ken — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sellier Laurent — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sellier Laurent — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-19SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorSale40,000 @ $51.54$2.1M−2.4% of holding−22.3%−14.1%1,642,610Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Bowles KendirectorSale10,000 @ $51.26$513K−6.2% of holding−22.3%−14.1%151,644Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Sellier LaurentofficerSale9,877 @ $50.22$496K−7.9% of holding−24.9%−17.6%115,339Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Sellier LaurentofficerSale5,685 @ $50.28$286K−4.3% of holding−24.9%−17.6%125,216Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Finan IrialdirectorPurchase15,180 @ $39.21$595K+38.2% of holding+3.8%−28.0%54,893Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Henao AlvaroofficerSale4,000 @ $53.90$216K−8.3% of holding−12.0%−21.3%44,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorSale78,000 @ $55.04$4.3M−4.9% of holding−9.6%−27.4%1,504,545Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Bowles KendirectorSale24,225 @ $55.06$1.3M−17.9% of holding−9.6%−27.4%111,458Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10BERNLOHR TIMOTHY JdirectorAward / grant4857,619Form 4
2026-09-10Arnold Colleen F.directorAward / grant34436,623Form 4
2026-09-10SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorAward / grant91085,854Form 4
2026-09-10Sellier LaurentofficerAward / grant140139,015Form 4
2026-09-10Sellier LaurentofficerAward / grant33531,666Form 4
2026-09-10WILSON ALAN DdirectorAward / grant67467,580Form 4
2026-09-10SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorAward / grant4861,728,994Form 4
2026-09-10Rasmussen Jorgen BuhldirectorAward / grant4814,790Form 4
2026-09-10Page IreneofficerAward / grant15214,361Form 4
2026-09-10Page IreneofficerAward / grant2362,787Form 4
2026-09-10Mayer SaverioofficerAward / grant40338,054Form 4
2026-09-10Mayer SaverioofficerAward / grant119241,684Form 4
2026-09-10Hietala KaisadirectorAward / grant4810,115Form 4
2026-09-10Henao AlvaroofficerAward / grant20819,703Form 4
2026-09-10Henao AlvaroofficerAward / grant3572,871Form 4
2026-09-10Harrison Suzan F.directorAward / grant4828,054Form 4
2026-09-10Garren BenofficerAward / grant5614,996Form 4
2026-09-10Finan IrialdirectorAward / grant7558,973Form 4
2026-09-10FergusonMchugh MaryLynndirectorAward / grant488,644Form 4
2026-09-10Fairweather CaroldirectorAward / grant4811,644Form 4
2026-09-10Brown Carole LynnettedirectorAward / grant486,836Form 4
2026-09-10Bowles KendirectorAward / grant45843,228Form 4
2026-09-10Bowles KendirectorAward / grant140174,487Form 4
2026-08-14Henao AlvaroofficerAward / grant6772,836Form 4
2026-08-14Garren BenofficerAward / grant7114,940Form 4
2026-08-14Sellier LaurentofficerAward / grant234138,875Form 4
2026-08-14SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorAward / grant7841,728,508Form 4
2026-08-14Page IreneofficerAward / grant2962,764Form 4
2026-08-14Mayer SaverioofficerAward / grant195241,565Form 4
2026-08-14Bowles KendirectorAward / grant234174,347Form 4
2026-06-10Arnold Colleen F.directorAward / grant36836,279Form 4
2026-06-10SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorAward / grant5211,727,724Form 4
2026-06-10SMURFIT ANTHONY P JdirectorAward / grant97584,944Form 4
2026-06-10Sellier LaurentofficerAward / grant150138,641Form 4
2026-06-10Sellier LaurentofficerAward / grant35931,331Form 4
2026-06-10WILSON ALAN DdirectorAward / grant72166,907Form 4
2026-06-10Rasmussen Jorgen BuhldirectorAward / grant5114,742Form 4
2026-06-10Page IreneofficerAward / grant16314,209Form 4
2026-06-10Page IreneofficerAward / grant2562,735Form 4
2026-06-10Mayer SaverioofficerAward / grant43237,651Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.