Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.12 · now $9.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SVV has typically landed between $6.75 and $11.10 — a range of −25.9% to +21.8% from the issuance price $9.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
786 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-06-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SVV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.2 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.28–$10.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.75–$11.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 786 windows spanning 2023-06-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-12 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +1.6% |
| 2025-02-14 | −39.4% | −41.2% | +0.5% |
| 2025-10-08 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +4.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +54.5% | +0.0% | +54.5% |
| 2025-04-02 | +51.3% | −4.3% | +51.3% |
| 2025-04-03 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +58.1% |
786 overlapping windows · 2023-06-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+9.0%
n=3
Feb
33%
−11.2%
n=3
Mar
0%
−11.2%
n=3
Apr
67%
+12.7%
n=3
May
67%
−2.5%
n=3
Jun
67%
+1.6%
n=3
Jul
75%
−2.8%
n=4
Aug
75%
+1.5%
n=4
Sep
50%
−2.0%
n=4
Oct
0%
−17.7%
n=3
Nov
33%
−3.1%
n=3
Dec
100%
+9.2%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | ARES MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,000,000 @ $10.25 | $235.8M | −19.6% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,449,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ARES MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,000,000 @ $10.25 | $235.8M | −19.6% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,449,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 92,059 @ $11.93 | $1.1M | −66.0% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $12.20 | $1.2M | −67.9% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Maher Michael W | officer | Sale | 44,742 @ $12.33 | $552K | −64.0% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 36,964 @ $12.38 | $458K | −43.8% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 36,938 @ $12.38 | $457K | −27.5% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $12.48 | $250K | −65.4% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $12.48 | $187K | −51.0% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.98 | $180K | −32.9% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.98 | $180K | −33.8% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.48 | $172K | −24.8% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.48 | $172K | −25.2% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 13,062 @ $11.66 | $152K | −8.9% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,301 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 13,036 @ $11.67 | $152K | −13.4% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,327 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Maher Michael W | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.31 | $62K | −19.9% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $10.94 | $547K | −20.2% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $10.92 | $546K | −25.3% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $10.98 | $165K | −58.6% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $10.98 | $110K | −40.9% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 7,941 @ $11.02 | $88K | −14.4% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 14,059 @ $10.48 | $147K | −57.1% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $10.48 | $105K | −40.9% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 941 @ $10.48 | $10K | −8.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 41,600 @ $10.08 | $419K | −46.8% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,363 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 300 @ $10.00 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $10.15 | $31K | −3.4% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Tanious Jubran N. | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $8.30 | $374K | −22.5% of holding | −0.1% | +7.4% | 154,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Tanious Jubran N. | officer | Sale | 57,706 @ $9.21 | $531K | −36.7% of holding | +12.1% | −4.3% | 99,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $13.69 | $274K | −100.0% of holding | −5.1% | −43.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $13.69 | $274K | −100.0% of holding | −5.1% | −43.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 34,184 @ $13.08 | $447K | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −42.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 9,052 @ $13.04 | $118K | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −42.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $13.00 | $27K | −100.0% of holding | −3.8% | −38.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $12.99 | $16K | −100.0% of holding | −3.8% | −38.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 3,970 @ $13.01 | $52K | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | −37.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 3,615 @ $12.98 | $47K | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | −37.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 4,096 @ $13.02 | $53K | −100.0% of holding | −3.2% | −39.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 1,333 @ $13.03 | $17K | −100.0% of holding | −3.2% | −39.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 14,000 @ $12.98 | $182K | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | −37.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Sale | 5,650 @ $13.00 | $73K | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | −37.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $13.00 | $30K | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | −37.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $12.51 | $219K | −100.0% of holding | −1.2% | −36.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 14,000 @ $12.48 | $175K | −100.0% of holding | −1.2% | −36.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.98 | $180K | −100.0% of holding | +6.0% | −32.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $11.98 | $144K | −100.0% of holding | +6.0% | −32.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | ALLEN WILLIAM T | director | Sale | 12,402 @ $11.15 | $138K | −42.7% of holding | +11.5% | −10.3% | 16,655 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.48 | $172K | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −15.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 7,824 @ $11.48 | $90K | −100.0% of holding | +2.0% | −15.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 45,735 @ $11.04 | $505K | −100.0% of holding | +6.3% | −19.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 4,176 @ $11.48 | $48K | −100.0% of holding | +6.3% | −19.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 2,637 @ $10.48 | $28K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | −10.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 4,228 @ $10.51 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | +7.7% | −7.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $10.51 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | +9.7% | −8.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $10.53 | $19K | −100.0% of holding | +11.0% | −7.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $10.80 | $518K | −100.0% of holding | +6.1% | −23.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Sale | 17,619 @ $10.65 | $188K | −100.0% of holding | +6.1% | −23.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | ARES MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,250,000 @ $8.86 | $19.9M | −1.9% of holding | −8.5% | −25.1% | 117,449,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | ARES MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,250,000 @ $8.86 | $19.9M | −1.9% of holding | −8.5% | −25.1% | 117,449,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | ARES MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,960,000 @ $8.86 | $132.5M | −11.1% of holding | −1.8% | −33.4% | 119,699,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
222 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 139,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 660,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 42,059 | 89,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 42,059 | 540,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 710,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 147,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 582,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 97,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Maher Michael W | officer | Option exercise | 44,742 | 89,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Maher Michael W | officer | Option exercise | 44,742 | 69,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 760,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 247,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 632,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 26,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 60,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 197,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 16,656 | 31,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 16,656 | 87,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 23,344 | 54,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 23,344 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 315,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 59,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 147,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 810,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 97,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 682,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 25,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 76,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 23,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 24,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 7,941 | 55,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Walsh Mark T. | director | Option exercise | 7,941 | 732,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 14,059 | 24,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 14,059 | 91,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 24,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Medway Richard A. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 33,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 941 | 11,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Geisser Melinda L. | officer | Option exercise | 941 | 105,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Hunsinger T. Charles | officer | Option exercise | 20,333 | 47,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Hunsinger T. Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,663 | 42,059 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.