Issued 2026-09-25 at $5.00 · now $5.00 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SVRA has typically landed between $4.12 and $6.47 — a range of −17.6% to +29.5% from the issuance price $5.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,343 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($5.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SVRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.05 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.51–$5.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.12–$6.47
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-05-16 | −79.7% | −79.7% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-15 | −79.0% | −79.0% | +3.4% |
| 2019-05-29 | −78.6% | −78.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-11-27 | +322.6% | +0.0% | +322.6% |
| 2019-12-10 | +233.6% | +0.0% | +286.2% |
| 2019-11-29 | +223.8% | −11.9% | +255.6% |
2,343 overlapping windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Inhaled Molgramostim in Pediatric Participants With Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis (aPAP). (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Sale | 394,528 @ $5.68 | $2.2M | −42.4% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 536,032 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-19 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.06 | $121K | −0.8% of holding | +5.5% | −11.9% | 2,533,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-29 | McCracken Joseph S | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.08 | $21K | +4.0% of holding | −3.2% | +123.4% | 260,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $2.77 | $416K | +6.3% of holding | +16.4% | +9.1% | 2,513,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Pauls Matthew | director | Sale | 54,702 @ $3.31 | $181K | −3.4% of holding | −8.9% | −35.7% | 1,536,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-16 | Lowrance David L | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $3.33 | $83K | −6.2% of holding | −8.9% | −35.7% | 381,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-16 | Hawkins Richard J | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $3.32 | $27K | −10.6% of holding | −8.9% | −35.7% | 67,241 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-19 | McCracken Joseph S | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.95 | $59K | +10.5% of holding | +10.6% | −2.1% | 210,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-18 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.88 | $288K | +4.5% of holding | +2.3% | −0.8% | 2,323,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Parker Braden C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,323 | 75,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lutz Robert Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 328,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lutz Robert Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 60,057 | 893,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 218,750 | 953,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 53,387 | 930,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 87,650 | 983,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,928 | 689,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 129,350 | 718,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,682 | 589,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 611,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,491 | 735,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 56,937 | 746,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,114 | 896,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 906,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 129,350 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 56,937 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 87,650 | 187,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 218,750 | 31,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,885 | 492,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 130,650 | 524,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,174 | 342,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 80,684 | 366,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,661 | 393,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 417,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,518 | 536,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 24,850 | 552,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,037 | 527,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 538,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,485 | 526,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 43,063 | 535,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 24,850 | 275,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 80,684 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 130,650 | 129,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 43,063 | 56,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lowrance David L | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | McCracken Joseph S | director | Option exercise | 1,807 | 302,644 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.