Issued 2026-08-13 at $5.70 · now $5.27 (2026-08-13, −7.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, SVRA has typically landed between $4.69 and $7.40 — a range of −17.7% to +29.8% from the issuance price $5.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,313 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($5.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SVRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $5.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.27 (-7.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.77 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.14–$6.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.69–$7.4
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-05-16 | −79.7% | −79.7% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-15 | −79.0% | −79.0% | +3.4% |
| 2019-05-29 | −78.6% | −78.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-11-27 | +322.6% | +0.0% | +322.6% |
| 2019-12-10 | +233.6% | +0.0% | +286.2% |
| 2019-11-29 | +223.8% | −11.9% | +255.6% |
2,313 overlapping windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Inhaled Molgramostim in Pediatric Participants With Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis (aPAP). (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.