Issued 2026-08-13 at $47.87 · now $47.15 (2026-08-13, −1.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, SUPN has typically landed between $41.72 and $55.23 — a range of −12.8% to +15.4% from the issuance price $47.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,570 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-01 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($47.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SUPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $47.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $47.15 (-1.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.51 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.57–$51.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $41.72–$55.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2012-11-15 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.6% |
| 2012-11-13 | −43.2% | −43.2% | +0.6% |
| 2012-11-20 | −42.9% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-06-15 | +192.2% | +0.0% | +192.2% |
| 2012-06-18 | +189.1% | −1.8% | +189.1% |
| 2012-06-19 | +160.0% | −1.0% | +191.4% |
3,570 overlapping windows · 2012-05-01 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- September 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Open-label Study to Evaluate Long-term Safety and Efficacy of SPN-812 (Viloxazine Extended-release Capsule) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: BIS-001-ER for the Treatment of Adult Focal Impaired Awareness Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study in Adults With Major Depressive Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: RENAISSANCE 2: SPN-817 Phase 2, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study in Adults With Focal Onset Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Tolerability Study of SPN-817 in Adult Patients With Treatment Resistant Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: SPN-817 Open-Label Extension Study in Adults With Focal Onset Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.