Issued 2026-09-25 at $42.66 · now $42.66 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SUPN has typically landed between $37.08 and $49.06 — a range of −13.1% to +15.0% from the issuance price $42.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,600 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-01 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($42.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SUPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $42.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.05 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.4–$45.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.08–$49.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,600 windows spanning 2012-05-01 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2012-11-15 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.6% |
| 2012-11-13 | −43.2% | −43.2% | +0.6% |
| 2012-11-20 | −42.9% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-06-15 | +192.2% | +0.0% | +192.2% |
| 2012-06-18 | +189.1% | −1.8% | +189.1% |
| 2012-06-19 | +160.0% | −1.0% | +191.4% |
3,600 overlapping windows · 2012-05-01 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: BIS-001-ER for the Treatment of Adult Focal Impaired Awareness Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study in Adults With Major Depressive Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: RENAISSANCE 2: SPN-817 Phase 2, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study in Adults With Focal Onset Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Tolerability Study of SPN-817 in Adult Patients With Treatment Resistant Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: SPN-817 Open-Label Extension Study in Adults With Focal Onset Seizures (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
+5.4%
n=14
Feb
50%
−0.7%
n=14
Mar
50%
+3.6%
n=14
Apr
57%
+2.0%
n=14
May
50%
+4.3%
n=14
Jun
67%
+9.1%
n=15
Jul
60%
+2.9%
n=15
Aug
53%
+1.4%
n=15
Sep
33%
−2.4%
n=15
Oct
50%
−0.2%
n=14
Nov
57%
−0.6%
n=14
Dec
50%
−0.6%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 6,838 @ $49.55 | $339K | −28.1% of holding | −3.4% | −28.5% | 17,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 412 @ $50.48 | $21K | −2.4% of holding | −3.4% | −28.5% | 17,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 27,710 @ $49.95 | $1.4M | −41.3% of holding | −8.0% | −31.3% | 39,334 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 22,290 @ $50.73 | $1.1M | −56.7% of holding | −8.0% | −31.3% | 17,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 34,114 @ $50.18 | $1.7M | −50.9% of holding | −5.4% | −31.3% | 32,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 15,886 @ $50.49 | $802K | −48.2% of holding | −5.4% | −31.3% | 17,044 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 24,138 @ $50.09 | $1.2M | −2.4% of holding | −4.7% | −32.1% | 968,962 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 10,742 @ $51.00 | $548K | −1.1% of holding | −4.7% | −32.1% | 958,220 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 120 @ $51.75 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −32.1% | 958,100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Hudson Frederick M. | director | Sale | 5,369 @ $50.61 | $272K | −8.2% of holding | −4.3% | −32.8% | 60,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Horich William Todd | officer | Sale | 4,439 @ $55.00 | $244K | −100.0% of holding | −4.7% | −34.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Horich William Todd | officer | Sale | 4,438 @ $54.00 | $240K | −50.0% of holding | −4.7% | −35.2% | 4,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mottola Frank | officer | Sale | 1,623 @ $53.65 | $87K | −8.1% of holding | −4.7% | −35.2% | 18,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | GEMAYEL GEORGES | director | Sale | 8,787 @ $53.00 | $466K | −24.4% of holding | −3.7% | −34.3% | 27,277 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | GEMAYEL GEORGES | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $53.71 | $537K | −26.2% of holding | −3.9% | −33.1% | 28,159 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensenig Bethany | director | Sale | 3,258 @ $51.27 | $167K | −100.0% of holding | −2.0% | −19.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensenig Bethany | director | Sale | 1,217 @ $50.31 | $61K | −27.2% of holding | −2.0% | −19.6% | 3,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Mottola Frank | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $50.47 | $757K | −49.2% of holding | −5.9% | −20.6% | 15,496 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Mottola Frank | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $50.22 | $251K | −24.4% of holding | −5.9% | −20.6% | 15,496 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Sale | 710 @ $44.44 | $32K | −4.7% of holding | −1.1% | −19.1% | 14,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 58,371 @ $50.55 | $3.0M | −4.6% of holding | −7.0% | −1.9% | 1,208,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | NEWHALL CHARLES W III | director | Sale | 23,800 @ $50.73 | $1.2M | −18.4% of holding | −7.0% | −1.9% | 105,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 1,529 @ $51.46 | $79K | −0.1% of holding | −7.0% | −1.9% | 1,206,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | NEWHALL CHARLES W III | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $51.55 | $62K | −1.1% of holding | −7.0% | −1.9% | 104,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 1,904 @ $48.06 | $92K | −0.2% of holding | +13.0% | +6.4% | 1,161,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 40,173 @ $48.07 | $1.9M | −3.3% of holding | +15.9% | +6.4% | 1,160,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 8,588 @ $48.25 | $414K | −0.7% of holding | +13.3% | +8.7% | 1,147,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 10,235 @ $48.02 | $491K | −0.9% of holding | +8.2% | +10.0% | 1,144,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 29,513 @ $47.23 | $1.4M | −2.5% of holding | +7.5% | +7.3% | 1,140,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 16,587 @ $47.02 | $780K | −1.5% of holding | +7.2% | +6.6% | 1,122,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Mottola Frank | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $45.87 | $229K | −24.4% of holding | +5.3% | +8.1% | 15,496 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 6,322 @ $46.29 | $293K | −0.6% of holding | +1.5% | +12.2% | 1,111,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 55,578 @ $46.01 | $2.6M | −4.8% of holding | +1.0% | +12.4% | 1,110,231 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 24,150 @ $45.12 | $1.1M | −2.2% of holding | +2.4% | +15.0% | 1,092,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 10,650 @ $45.05 | $480K | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | +14.7% | 1,078,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | NEWHALL CHARLES W III | director | Sale | 3,588 @ $45.01 | $161K | −2.7% of holding | +1.7% | +14.7% | 129,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Mottola Frank | officer | Sale | 14,000 @ $44.51 | $623K | −47.5% of holding | +2.8% | +18.3% | 15,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | NEWHALL CHARLES W III | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $45.00 | $45K | −0.7% of holding | +2.8% | +18.3% | 133,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $45.00 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | +2.8% | +18.3% | 1,071,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | DEC TIMOTHY C | officer | Sale | 11,780 @ $44.49 | $524K | −90.4% of holding | +1.3% | +11.6% | 1,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $45.00 | $68K | −0.1% of holding | +1.3% | +11.6% | 1,070,848 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | NEWHALL CHARLES W III | director | Sale | 1,412 @ $45.00 | $64K | −1.0% of holding | +1.3% | +11.6% | 134,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Hudson Frederick M. | director | Sale | 7,457 @ $42.26 | $315K | −13.9% of holding | +1.8% | +14.2% | 46,307 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Sensenig Bethany | director | Sale | 5,369 @ $42.25 | $227K | −100.0% of holding | +1.8% | +14.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 63,500 @ $43.12 | $2.7M | −5.6% of holding | +6.1% | +8.6% | 1,069,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 38,000 @ $42.00 | $1.6M | −3.5% of holding | +6.1% | +8.6% | 1,052,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Sale | 38,500 @ $40.24 | $1.5M | −3.6% of holding | +6.1% | +8.6% | 1,030,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
253 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Withheld for tax | 12,642 | 1,258,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,158 | 18,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mottola Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 797 | 19,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | DEC TIMOTHY C | officer | Withheld for tax | 604 | 9,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Rubin Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 363 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mottola Frank | officer | Option exercise | 1,650 | 20,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Option exercise | 29,849 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Option exercise | 29,849 | 1,270,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | DEC TIMOTHY C | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | DEC TIMOTHY C | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 9,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 19,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Rubin Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Rubin Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 750 | 14,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mottola Frank | officer | Option exercise | 1,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Award / grant | 29,849 | 29,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | DEC TIMOTHY C | officer | Award / grant | 1,250 | 1,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Rubin Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 750 | 750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mottola Frank | officer | Award / grant | 1,650 | 1,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 7,250 | 24,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 7,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 22,750 | 39,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 67,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 12,250 | 52,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 12,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 22,750 | 7,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 22,750 | 39,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 18,000 | 62,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 67,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 4,250 | 44,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 4,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 18,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Bhatt Padmanabh P. | officer | Option exercise | 22,750 | 12,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 993,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 1,241,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 1,241,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 993,100 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.