SUNSunoco LPas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.92 · now $78.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SUN has typically landed between $71.92 and $88.70 — a range of −8.9% to +12.4% from the issuance price $78.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,483 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SUN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$71.92worst · -8.9%$88.7best · +12.4%
  • now $78.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $80.16 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $76.61–$83.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $71.92–$88.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,483 windows spanning 2012-09-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.0%−61.0%+1.4%
2020-02-21−57.4%−61.5%+0.0%
2020-02-24−55.3%−61.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+74.4%+0.0%+74.4%
2020-04-03+69.7%+0.0%+69.7%
2020-03-18+69.2%+0.0%+69.2%

3,483 overlapping windows · 2012-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
86%
+6.2%
n=14
Feb
57%
−0.4%
n=14
Mar
36%
−2.9%
n=14
Apr
79%
+9.5%
n=14
May
36%
−1.4%
n=14
Jun
50%
−0.6%
n=14
Jul
86%
+4.3%
n=14
Aug
57%
+1.7%
n=14
Sep
36%
−1.2%
n=14
Oct
64%
+1.3%
n=14
Nov
64%
+3.6%
n=14
Dec
57%
+1.4%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$80$46↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25Hand Brian AofficerAward / grant20,000190,914Form 4
2026-06-25Harkness AustinofficerAward / grant20,000124,551Form 4
2026-01-02Washburne Ray WdirectorAward / grant2,43612,815Form 4
2026-01-02Skidmore David KdirectorAward / grant2,43619,248Form 4
2026-01-02Smith W BrettdirectorAward / grant2,4366,117Form 4
2026-01-02Barron Bradley CdirectorAward / grant2,43624,640Form 4
2026-01-02Alvarez Oscar A.directorAward / grant2,43625,676Form 4
2025-12-05Kim JosephdirectorWithheld for tax33,810494,688Form 4
2025-12-05Fails Karl RofficerWithheld for tax14,600255,952Form 4
2025-12-05Harkness AustinofficerWithheld for tax9,40584,676Form 4
2025-12-05Hand Brian AofficerWithheld for tax9,149151,039Form 4
2025-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerWithheld for tax9,02042,609Form 4
2025-12-05Raymer RickofficerWithheld for tax3,51933,875Form 4
2025-12-05Kim JosephdirectorAward / grant97,200591,888Form 4
2025-12-05Fails Karl RofficerAward / grant35,100291,052Form 4
2025-12-05Raymer RickofficerAward / grant5,43839,313Form 4
2025-12-05Harkness AustinofficerAward / grant19,875104,551Form 4
2025-12-05Hand Brian AofficerAward / grant19,875170,914Form 4
2025-12-05Hand Brian AofficerAward / grant6,6259,959Form 4
2025-12-05Fails Karl RofficerAward / grant11,70017,200Form 4
2025-12-05Kim JosephdirectorAward / grant32,40044,900Form 4
2025-12-05Harkness AustinofficerAward / grant6,6259,959Form 4
2025-12-05Kim JosephdirectorAward / grant32,40044,900Form 4
2025-12-05Fails Karl RofficerAward / grant11,70017,200Form 4
2025-12-05Hand Brian AofficerAward / grant6,6259,959Form 4
2025-12-05Harkness AustinofficerAward / grant6,6259,959Form 4
2025-02-18Kim JosephdirectorAward / grant50,000528,498Form 4
2025-02-18Fails Karl RofficerAward / grant25,000270,552Form 4
2025-01-02Smith W BrettdirectorAward / grant2,2043,681Form 4
2025-01-02Skidmore David KdirectorAward / grant2,20416,812Form 4
2025-01-02Alvarez Oscar A.directorAward / grant2,20423,240Form 4
2025-01-02Washburne Ray WdirectorAward / grant2,20410,379Form 4
2025-01-02Barron Bradley CdirectorAward / grant2,20422,204Form 4
2024-12-05Kim JosephdirectorWithheld for tax24,573422,248Form 4
2024-12-05Fails Karl RofficerWithheld for tax10,114220,802Form 4
2024-12-05Hand Brian AofficerWithheld for tax8,067145,188Form 4
2024-12-05Harkness AustinofficerWithheld for tax4,60579,081Form 4
2024-12-05Bramhall DylanofficerWithheld for tax3,07051,629Form 4
2024-12-05Raymer RickofficerWithheld for tax1,87732,744Form 4
2024-12-05Hand Brian AofficerAward / grant15,000160,188Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-06-132024-05-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-06-132024-05-23$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2020-05-082020-04-15$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2020-01-102019-12-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-01-092019-12-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-09-112019-08-02$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2019-08-052019-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-07-112019-06-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-10-102018-09-17$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-10-102018-09-17$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2018-03-052018-02-09$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2018-03-052018-02-09$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2018-03-052018-02-05$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2018-02-012018-01-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.