STZConstellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.03 · now $123.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STZ has typically landed between $110.25 and $134.90 — a range of −10.4% to +9.6% from the issuance price $123.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$110.25worst · -10.4%$134.9best · +9.6%
  • now $123.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $123.01 (-0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.52–$128.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $110.25–$134.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−49.1%−49.1%+0.0%
2008-09-26−44.1%−44.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−42.5%−42.5%+0.0%
3 best
2012-06-01+53.6%−0.4%+53.6%
2012-06-13+53.3%+0.0%+53.3%
2012-06-12+51.2%+0.0%+51.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.2B
market cap
$10.48
EPS (TTM)
12.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-05
next earnings
Revenue$9.1B
'21'26
Net income$1.7B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.8B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr18.5%
'21'26
ROE · by yr20.9%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.39
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $123.03$-87.46$281.62
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-62.01
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$256.17
  • Analyst target · range $132.00–$186.00$167.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$123.03

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
74%
+3.9%
n=19
May
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
+2.4%
n=19
Jul
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$167$1212026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $631K — Bourdeau James O.2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $308K — Hernandez Ernesto M2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $85K — Glaetzer Samuel J2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $85K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $308K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $631K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bourdeau James O. — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hernandez Ernesto M — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Glaetzer Samuel J — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12Bourdeau James O.officerSale4,407 @ $143.24$631K−32.6% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open9,109Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27Hernandez Ernesto MdirectorSale2,000 @ $153.91$308K−43.6% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open2,582Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Glaetzer Samuel JofficerSale555 @ $153.78$85K−17.5% of holding+2.7%−26.6%2,615Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-21Bourdeau James O.officerSale821 @ $169.00$139K−8.0% of holding−2.4%−9.6%9,438Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08Baldwin Christopher JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $169.62$170K+82.8% of holding−2.2%−26.8%2,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-07Baldwin Christopher JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $171.27$171K+480.8% of holding−0.4%−26.6%1,208Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Glaetzer Samuel JofficerSale3,150 @ $188.54$594K−50.2% of holding−12.4%−45.9%3,126Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-17GILES WILLIAM TdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $186.39$186K+216.0% of holding−8.5%−9.6%1,463Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22Daniels JenniferdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22SANDS ROBERTdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Clark ChristydirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Baldwin Christopher JdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Madero Garza Jose ManueldirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Flatley Edith MorgandirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22MCCARTHY DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Zaramella LucadirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22GILES WILLIAM TdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22Hernandez Ernesto MdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-22SANDS RICHARDdirectorAward / grant1,4001,400Form 4
2026-07-10Madero Garza Jose ManueldirectorWithheld for tax3112,882Form 4
2026-07-10Hernandez Ernesto MdirectorWithheld for tax153,681Form 4
2026-07-10Zaramella LucadirectorOption exercise1,1141,617Form 4
2026-07-10Zaramella LucadirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Clark ChristydirectorOption exercise1,1143,922Form 4
2026-07-10Clark ChristydirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Madero Garza Jose ManueldirectorOption exercise1,1143,193Form 4
2026-07-10Madero Garza Jose ManueldirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Flatley Edith MorgandirectorOption exercise187187Form 4
2026-07-10Flatley Edith MorgandirectorOption exercise1870Form 4
2026-07-10Baldwin Christopher JdirectorOption exercise1,1143,825Form 4
2026-07-10GILES WILLIAM TdirectorOption exercise1,1143,080Form 4
2026-07-10GILES WILLIAM TdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10SANDS RICHARDdirectorOption exercise1,1141,114Form 4
2026-07-10SANDS RICHARDdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10SANDS ROBERTdirectorOption exercise1,1149,714Form 4
2026-07-10SANDS ROBERTdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Daniels JenniferdirectorOption exercise1,1144,505Form 4
2026-07-10Daniels JenniferdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Fink Nicholas I.directorOption exercise1,1143,476Form 4
2026-07-10Fink Nicholas I.directorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Hernandez Ernesto MdirectorOption exercise1,1143,696Form 4
2026-07-10Hernandez Ernesto MdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10MCCARTHY DANIEL JdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10Baldwin Christopher JdirectorOption exercise1,1140Form 4
2026-07-10MCCARTHY DANIEL JdirectorOption exercise1,1144,849Form 4
2026-05-20Flatley Edith MorgandirectorAward / grant187187Form 4
2026-05-01Hankinson GarthofficerWithheld for tax3,04318,286Form 4
2026-05-01Bourdeau James O.officerWithheld for tax2,10813,516Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.