Issued 2026-09-25 at $916.83 · now $916.83 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, STX has typically landed between $767.41 and $1199.90 — a range of −16.3% to +30.9% from the issuance price $916.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($916.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $916.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $916.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $951.19 (+3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $875.24–$1,027
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $767.41–$1,200
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-20 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +106.1% | +0.0% | +116.4% |
| 2009-03-05 | +96.2% | −9.3% | +96.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +95.8% | +0.0% | +113.8% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$191.0B
market cap
$10.54
EPS (TTM)
80.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$9.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$818M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-324.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-11.03
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$26.59
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$360.52
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$1,600$930.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$916.83
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+6.7%
n=18
Feb
63%
+4.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
+5.4%
n=19
May
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
+2.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
72%
+4.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,040 @ $873.49 | $908K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $872.42 | $872K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 986 @ $874.50 | $862K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 974 @ $875.35 | $853K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 915 @ $894.27 | $818K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 760 @ $876.54 | $666K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 741 @ $881.16 | $653K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 520 @ $871.56 | $453K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 418 @ $877.36 | $367K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 320 @ $883.08 | $283K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 280 @ $878.38 | $246K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 200 @ $881.90 | $176K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 200 @ $879.71 | $176K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 200 @ $870.28 | $174K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 160 @ $868.11 | $139K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 120 @ $887.92 | $107K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 80 @ $897.28 | $72K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 80 @ $869.21 | $70K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,647 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 80 @ $865.11 | $69K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $902.07 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $899.53 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $893.15 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,768 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $890.54 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $886.27 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $865.80 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 40 @ $863.66 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Sale | 97,889 @ $772.14 | $75.6M | −20.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 378,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Sale | 49,984 @ $772.16 | $38.6M | −41.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 15,466 @ $772.15 | $11.9M | −33.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 7,259 @ $778.35 | $5.7M | −16.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 6,682 @ $779.27 | $5.2M | −18.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 4,147 @ $782.56 | $3.2M | −16.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 3,987 @ $777.22 | $3.1M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 3,451 @ $772.65 | $2.7M | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 3,242 @ $776.20 | $2.5M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 2,480 @ $800.47 | $2.0M | −29.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 2,453 @ $780.29 | $1.9M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 2,315 @ $775.01 | $1.8M | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 2,166 @ $795.95 | $1.7M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,760 @ $789.84 | $1.4M | −10.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,760 @ $783.28 | $1.4M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,717 @ $774.01 | $1.3M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,458 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,587 @ $796.90 | $1.3M | −14.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $781.35 | $1.3M | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,280 @ $794.72 | $1.0M | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,040 @ $786.14 | $818K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $784.45 | $784K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 914 @ $771.38 | $705K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 560 @ $791.36 | $443K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 530 @ $797.97 | $423K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 400 @ $799.03 | $320K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 280 @ $788.43 | $221K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 120 @ $787.26 | $94K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Sale | 1,870 @ $781.23 | $1.5M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Sale | 989 @ $779.00 | $770K | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Sale | 955 @ $781.24 | $746K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Sale | 493 @ $781.23 | $385K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Sale | 7,568 @ $830.74 | $6.3M | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,389 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Sale | 5,593 @ $829.77 | $4.6M | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,957 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Sale | 4,589 @ $831.71 | $3.8M | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 915 | 32,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 915 | 17,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 30,130 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 177,000 | 475,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Option exercise | 52,730 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Option exercise | 52,730 | 58,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 90,380 | 120,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 30,130 | 46,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 14,470 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 177,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 90,380 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 14,470 | 25,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 13,439 | 80,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 13,475 | 66,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 15,067 | 53,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 8,517 | 38,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 3,319 | 13,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 13,439 | 40,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 8,517 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 942 | 16,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 3,319 | 300,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 1,695 | 31,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 942 | 3,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 678 | 2,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 678 | 10,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 15,067 | 18,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Option exercise | 989 | 3,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Option exercise | 989 | 6,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 13,475 | 32,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 1,695 | 6,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 2,815 | 297,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 631 | 5,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 2,815 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 15,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 959 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 959 | 29,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Option exercise | 379 | 3,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Option exercise | 1,515 | 12,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 2,415 | 298,864 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2025-11-16 | 2025-10-28 | $15–50K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-08 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-08-14 | 2025-07-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.