Issued 2026-08-13 at $921.37 · now $921.37 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, STX has typically landed between $771.70 and $1205.19 — a range of −16.2% to +30.8% from the issuance price $921.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($921.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $921.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $921.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $953.38 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $877.54–$1,029
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $771.7–$1,205
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-20 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +106.1% | +0.0% | +116.4% |
| 2009-03-05 | +96.2% | −9.3% | +96.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +95.8% | +0.0% | +113.8% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$26.59
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$360.52
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$1,600$930.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$921.37
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-20 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Award / grant | 13,976 | 13,976 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Award / grant | 5,241 | 5,241 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Award / grant | 4,258 | 4,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Chong Kian Fatt | officer | Award / grant | 1,278 | 1,278 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lee James CI | officer | Award / grant | 16,128 | 16,128 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lee James CI | officer | Award / grant | 6,048 | 6,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lee James CI | officer | Award / grant | 5,698 | 5,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lee James CI | officer | Award / grant | 1,710 | 1,710 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 153,700 | 153,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 25,617 | 25,617 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 21,065 | 21,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 6,320 | 6,320 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 18,816 | 18,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 7,056 | 7,056 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 4,070 | 4,070 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Morris John Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 1,221 | 1,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Award / grant | 53,756 | 53,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Award / grant | 20,158 | 20,158 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Award / grant | 9,129 | 9,129 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Romano Gianluca | officer | Award / grant | 2,739 | 2,739 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Award / grant | 24,192 | 24,192 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Award / grant | 9,071 | 9,071 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Award / grant | 7,595 | 7,595 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Teh Ban Seng | officer | Award / grant | 2,279 | 2,279 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2025-11-16 | 2025-10-28 | $15–50K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-08 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-08-14 | 2025-07-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.