STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.98 · now $14.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STWD has typically landed between $13.51 and $16.44 — a range of −9.8% to +9.8% from the issuance price $14.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,279 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-08-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STWD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.51worst · -9.8%$16.44best · +9.8%
  • now $14.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.98 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.44–$15.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.51–$16.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,279 windows spanning 2009-08-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-24−65.6%−65.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−65.3%−65.3%+0.0%
2020-02-19−60.6%−60.6%+1.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+45.7%+0.0%+54.2%
2020-03-24+35.6%+0.0%+69.2%
2020-04-02+35.2%−4.9%+46.6%

4,279 overlapping windows · 2009-08-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+3.3%
n=17
Feb
53%
+0.4%
n=17
Mar
71%
−0.7%
n=17
Apr
53%
+1.7%
n=17
May
41%
−0.9%
n=17
Jun
53%
+1.9%
n=17
Jul
59%
+2.2%
n=17
Aug
53%
+0.8%
n=17
Sep
33%
−1.7%
n=18
Oct
47%
+0.6%
n=17
Nov
65%
+3.3%
n=17
Dec
59%
+0.9%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$152026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $120K — Dishner Jeffrey G.2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $120K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Dishner Jeffrey G. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-01Dishner Jeffrey G.directorSale7,013 @ $17.13$120K−4.0% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open168,152Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6661,450,004Form 4
2026-06-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6663,561,724Form 4
2026-06-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6663,561,724Form 4
2026-06-22STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition4,1823,285,058Form 4
2026-06-02STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition5,0633,289,240Form 4
2026-05-26Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorAward / grant9,691126,795Form 4
2026-05-26Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorAward / grant9,691126,795Form 4
2026-05-26Dishner Jeffrey G.directorAward / grant2,423170,575Form 4
2026-05-26Dishner Jeffrey G.directorAward / grant2,423170,575Form 4
2026-05-15STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant111,5893,405,892Form 4
2026-05-15STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant111,5893,405,892Form 4
2026-04-22STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition3,6613,294,303Form 4
2026-04-14STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition3,7413,297,964Form 4
2026-04-01STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition16,6843,301,705Form 4
2026-03-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6661,726,670Form 4
2026-03-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6663,318,389Form 4
2026-03-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise276,6663,318,389Form 4
2026-03-18STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition661,3423,110,295Form 4
2026-03-16Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorAward / grant5,828117,104Form 4
2026-03-16Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorOther acquisition111,000111,276Form 4
2026-03-16Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorAward / grant5,828117,104Form 4
2026-03-16STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant3,5653,771,637Form 4
2026-03-16DiModica Jeffrey F.officerAward / grant11,0861,302,265Form 4
2026-03-16Paniry RinaofficerAward / grant34,274655,774Form 4
2026-03-16STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant3,5653,771,637Form 4
2026-03-16Paniry RinaofficerAward / grant34,274655,774Form 4
2026-03-16DiModica Jeffrey F.officerAward / grant11,0861,302,265Form 4
2026-03-16Pollack Jonathan LeedirectorOther acquisition111,000111,276Form 4
2026-03-10STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant670,0002,003,336Form 4
2026-02-25STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant65,0073,768,072Form 4
2026-02-25STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant65,0073,768,072Form 4
2025-12-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise220,8331,333,336Form 4
2025-12-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise220,8333,703,065Form 4
2025-12-31STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise220,8333,703,065Form 4
2025-12-15STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition6,8483,482,232Form 4
2025-11-01STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOther acquisition6,6673,489,080Form 4
2025-09-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise345,8331,554,169Form 4
2025-09-30Douglas Camille J.directorAward / grant7,74477,929Form 4
2025-09-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise345,8333,498,765Form 4
2025-09-30STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorOption exercise345,8333,498,765Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.