STVNStevanato Group S.p.A.Healthcare · Medical - Instruments & Suppliesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.53 · now $22.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STVN has typically landed between $18.23 and $27.27 — a range of −19.1% to +21.0% from the issuance price $22.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,277 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.23worst · -19.1%$27.27best · +21.0%
  • now $22.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.61 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.68–$24.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.23–$27.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,277 windows spanning 2021-07-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-06−34.4%−34.4%+1.5%
2024-05-06−30.6%−30.6%+3.6%
2024-05-08−30.6%−31.3%+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-07+39.3%−0.9%+39.3%
2021-08-16+36.6%+0.0%+39.0%
2026-04-10+35.3%+0.0%+40.5%

1,277 overlapping windows · 2021-07-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
−3.3%
n=5
Feb
40%
−2.0%
n=5
Mar
60%
+7.9%
n=5
Apr
60%
−1.0%
n=5
May
80%
−1.8%
n=5
Jun
40%
+3.3%
n=5
Jul
80%
+5.7%
n=5
Aug
67%
+4.8%
n=6
Sep
67%
+0.9%
n=6
Oct
20%
−2.4%
n=5
Nov
20%
−4.7%
n=5
Dec
60%
+2.0%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$132026-08-07: 3 insider sales, $166K — Dal Lago Marco, Magistretti Elisabetta, Santel Luciano2026-06-15: 4 insider sales, $102K — Flynn Karen, MOREL DONALD E JR, Balachandran Madhavan, FEDERICI WILLIAM J2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $102K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $166K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Dal Lago Marco — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Magistretti Elisabetta — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Santel Luciano — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Flynn Karen — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 11 days after the tradedirector MOREL DONALD E JR — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 11 days after the tradedirector Balachandran Madhavan — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 11 days after the tradedirector FEDERICI WILLIAM J — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 11 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Dal Lago MarcoofficerSale4,209 @ $20.09$85K−4.9% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open81,144Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07Magistretti ElisabettadirectorSale2,045 @ $20.09$41K−41.1% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open2,930Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07Santel LucianodirectorSale2,023 @ $20.09$41K−29.9% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open4,739Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Flynn KarendirectorSale1,493 @ $17.09$26K−20.6% of holding+21.2%not yet — horizon still open5,757Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2026-06-15MOREL DONALD E JRdirectorSale1,493 @ $17.09$26K−3.8% of holding+21.2%not yet — horizon still open37,424Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2026-06-15Balachandran MadhavandirectorSale1,493 @ $17.09$26K−2.1% of holding+21.2%not yet — horizon still open69,458Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2026-06-15FEDERICI WILLIAM JdirectorSale1,493 @ $17.09$26K−5.2% of holding+21.2%not yet — horizon still open26,991Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12FEDERICI WILLIAM JdirectorAward / grant4,97528,484Form 4
2026-06-12LIN SUE-JEANdirectorAward / grant4,9756,975Form 4
2026-06-12MOREL DONALD E JRdirectorAward / grant4,97538,917Form 4
2026-06-12Magistretti ElisabettadirectorAward / grant4,9754,975Form 4
2026-06-12Santel LucianodirectorAward / grant4,9756,762Form 4
2026-06-12Flynn KarendirectorAward / grant4,9757,250Form 4
2026-06-12Balachandran MadhavandirectorAward / grant4,97570,951Form 4
2026-06-12Dal Lago MarcoofficerAward / grant2,35677,356Form 4
2026-06-12Dal Lago MarcoofficerOption exercise7,99785,353Form 4
2026-06-12Dal Lago MarcoofficerOption exercise2,7700Form 4
2026-06-12Dal Lago MarcoofficerOption exercise2,9242,922Form 4
2026-06-12Dal Lago MarcoofficerOption exercise2,3034,607Form 4
2026-06-09Stocchi MauroofficerAward / grant2,101407,043Form 4
2026-06-09Stocchi MauroofficerOption exercise6,586413,629Form 4
2026-06-09Stocchi MauroofficerOption exercise2,4700Form 4
2026-06-09Stocchi MauroofficerOption exercise2,0632,063Form 4
2026-06-09Stocchi MauroofficerOption exercise2,0534,107Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.