STTState Street CorporationFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $182.90 · now $182.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STT has typically landed between $161.08 and $208.29 — a range of −11.9% to +13.9% from the issuance price $182.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($182.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $182.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$161.08worst · -11.9%$208.29best · +13.9%
  • now $182.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $186.22 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $176.78–$195.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $161.08–$208.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-12-17−62.8%−62.8%+10.6%
2008-12-18−56.0%−61.6%+14.1%
2008-12-22−48.4%−60.4%+17.8%
3 best
2009-03-06+84.5%−2.1%+84.6%
2009-03-09+83.4%+0.0%+88.5%
2009-03-05+71.9%−8.8%+71.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$51.3B
market cap
$11.33
EPS (TTM)
16.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-16
next earnings
Revenue$22.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.07
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $182.90$122.77$590.15
  • DCF (intrinsic)$557.91
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$185.61
  • Analyst target · range $155.00–$200.00$183.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$182.90

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−1.3%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.1%
n=19
May
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+5.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$194$1082026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $91K — Schaefer Elizabeth2026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Hu W. Bradford2026-07-21: 2 insider sales, $3.7M — O HANLEY RONALD P, Horgan Kathryn M2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $895K — Horgan Kathryn M2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $243K — RICHARDS MICHAEL L2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $3.7M — O HANLEY RONALD P, Hu W. Bradford2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $75K — Schaefer Elizabeth2026-04-22: 2 insider sales, $1.9M — TAHIRI MOSTAPHA, RICHARDS MICHAEL L2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — PLANSKY JOHN2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $312K — Porter Brian J.2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $3.7M — O HANLEY RONALD P2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $320K — RICHARDS MICHAEL L2026-02-23: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — AMBROSIUS JOERG, Horgan Kathryn M2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $673K — Horgan Kathryn M2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $176K — RICHARDS MICHAEL L2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $115K — RICHARDS MICHAEL L2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — O HANLEY RONALD P2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $175K — Schaefer Elizabeth2025-08-12: 2 insider sales, $4.6M — O HANLEY RONALD P …2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $6.4M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $176K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $673K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $312K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $3.8M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $5.5M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $91K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schaefer Elizabeth — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hu W. Bradford — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2026-07-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Horgan Kathryn M — Sale on 2026-07-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Horgan Kathryn M — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS MICHAEL L — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hu W. Bradford — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schaefer Elizabeth — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer TAHIRI MOSTAPHA — Sale on 2026-04-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS MICHAEL L — Sale on 2026-04-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer PLANSKY JOHN — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Porter Brian J. — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS MICHAEL L — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer AMBROSIUS JOERG — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Horgan Kathryn M — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Horgan Kathryn M — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS MICHAEL L — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS MICHAEL L — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schaefer Elizabeth — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector O HANLEY RONALD P — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Schaefer ElizabethofficerSale500 @ $181.19$91K−5.8% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open8,073Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24Hu W. BradfordofficerSale9,758 @ $184.52$1.8M−16.4% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open49,794Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-21O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale14,553 @ $184.17$2.7M−5.7% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open240,959Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-21Horgan Kathryn MofficerSale5,523 @ $184.17$1.0M−5.1% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open103,171Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11Horgan Kathryn MofficerSale5,500 @ $162.78$895K−4.8% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open108,694Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-08RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale1,500 @ $162.14$243K−3.5% of holding+9.9%not yet — horizon still open41,827Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale14,553 @ $155.35$2.3M−5.4% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open255,512Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Hu W. BradfordofficerSale9,212 @ $155.35$1.4M−13.4% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open59,552Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Schaefer ElizabethofficerSale500 @ $150.87$75K−5.4% of holding+10.7%not yet — horizon still open8,764Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-22TAHIRI MOSTAPHAofficerSale9,611 @ $152.93$1.5M−12.9% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open64,642Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-22RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale3,000 @ $153.89$462K−6.4% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open43,522Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11PLANSKY JOHNofficerSale16,100 @ $124.32$2.0M−22.3% of holding+10.6%+40.9%56,162Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Porter Brian J.directorPurchase2,500 @ $124.99$312K+39.1% of holding+7.8%+42.7%8,898Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale29,107 @ $125.70$3.7M−9.7% of holding+2.7%+37.2%270,065Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale2,500 @ $127.91$320K−5.8% of holding+3.9%+41.4%40,555Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23AMBROSIUS JOERGofficerSale8,765 @ $128.00$1.1M−14.0% of holding+4.9%+41.9%53,925Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Horgan Kathryn MofficerSale5,676 @ $127.10$721K−5.1% of holding+4.9%+41.9%104,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-28Horgan Kathryn MofficerSale5,676 @ $118.55$673K−5.1% of holding+8.7%+24.3%104,978Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-27RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale1,500 @ $117.24$176K−3.7% of holding+0.7%+26.0%38,626Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale1,000 @ $115.17$115K−2.4% of holding−3.7%+8.3%40,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale13,330 @ $112.39$1.5M−5.2% of holding−4.4%+4.9%244,433Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Schaefer ElizabethofficerSale1,576 @ $111.07$175K−22.5% of holding−1.6%+9.0%5,432Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale39,466 @ $111.24$4.4M−35.4% of holding−1.0%+11.5%72,026Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale1,699 @ $111.47$189K−2.4% of holding−1.0%+11.5%70,327Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-22RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale990 @ $109.29$108K−2.3% of holding+0.5%+7.7%41,332Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale41,070 @ $96.21$4.0M−26.9% of holding+6.8%+8.8%111,586Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30Horgan Kathryn MofficerSale11,111 @ $96.61$1.1M−9.1% of holding+6.8%+8.8%110,654Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorSale94 @ $96.72$9K−0.1% of holding+6.8%+8.8%111,492Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerSale750 @ $94.04$71K−1.7% of holding−1.2%+8.4%42,527Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06Schaefer ElizabethofficerSale1,300 @ $90.72$118K−15.0% of holding+0.2%+8.3%7,354Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-02TAHIRI MOSTAPHAofficerSale3,989 @ $90.43$361K−6.9% of holding+2.0%+8.6%53,903Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01PLANSKY JOHNofficerSale11,622 @ $88.83$1.0M−16.8% of holding+2.3%+9.3%57,632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01Bisegna AnthonyofficerSale3,500 @ $88.74$311K−10.9% of holding+2.3%+9.3%28,557Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28de Saint-Aignan PatrickdirectorSale19,745 @ $98.24$1.9M−62.3% of holding−4.2%+8.5%11,955Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19AMBROSIUS JOERGofficerSale2,880 @ $100.07$288K−6.3% of holding−1.6%+9.1%43,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18SUMME GREGORY LdirectorSale10,815 @ $100.00$1.1M−9.8% of holding−2.9%+7.2%100,023Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18de Saint-Aignan PatrickdirectorSale8,028 @ $99.96$802K−20.2% of holding−2.9%+7.2%31,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Fogarty AnnofficerSale3,705 @ $99.47$369K−6.8% of holding−2.9%+7.2%50,816Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18SUMME GREGORY LdirectorSale3,000 @ $100.00$300K−100.0% of holding−2.9%+7.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

193 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerGift1,00940,622Form 4
2026-08-31Read Craig JackofficerAward / grant9,4089,408Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorDisposition2,204240,959Form 4
2026-08-14RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerWithheld for tax19641,631Form 4
2026-08-14TAHIRI MOSTAPHAofficerWithheld for tax5464,497Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorGift10,500230,459Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,204243,163Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2044,408Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2044,408Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2044,408Form 4
2026-08-14O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2044,408Form 4
2026-05-20Fawcett Amelia C.directorAward / grant1,52665,287Form 4
2026-05-20Chandoha Marie AdirectorAward / grant1,52615,853Form 4
2026-05-20MATHEW SARAdirectorAward / grant1,52625,087Form 4
2026-05-20Freda William CdirectorAward / grant1,52635,506Form 4
2026-05-20Rhea John BdirectorAward / grant2,53325,736Form 4
2026-05-20Porter Brian J.directorAward / grant1,52610,424Form 4
2026-05-20Halliday PatriciadirectorAward / grant1,5264,146Form 4
2026-05-20DeMaio DonnadirectorAward / grant1,52613,346Form 4
2026-05-20O'Sullivan SeandirectorAward / grant1,52628,696Form 4
2026-05-20Portalatin Julio AdirectorAward / grant1,52615,404Form 4
2026-05-20Meaney William LdirectorAward / grant1,52626,472Form 4
2026-05-20Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant1,5261,850Form 4
2026-05-15O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorDisposition2,204270,065Form 4
2026-05-15RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerWithheld for tax19543,327Form 4
2026-05-15Schaefer ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax1918,573Form 4
2026-05-15TAHIRI MOSTAPHAofficerWithheld for tax9164,551Form 4
2026-05-15O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,204272,269Form 4
2026-05-15O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2046,612Form 4
2026-05-15O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorOption exercise2,2046,612Form 4
2026-03-19Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant324324Form 4
2026-02-26AMBROSIUS JOERGofficerWithheld for tax35565,032Form 4
2026-02-26RICHARDS MICHAEL LofficerAward / grant5,96746,522Form 4
2026-02-26Shelton MarkofficerAward / grant10,72635,167Form 4
2026-02-26O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorAward / grant43,873299,172Form 4
2026-02-26Schaefer ElizabethofficerAward / grant4,2169,264Form 4
2026-02-26PLANSKY JOHNofficerAward / grant12,76972,262Form 4
2026-02-26Woods John FofficerAward / grant16,11294,215Form 4
2026-02-26TAHIRI MOSTAPHAofficerAward / grant14,25974,253Form 4
2026-02-26AMBROSIUS JOERGofficerAward / grant10,71664,641Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Jake AuchinclossHousesale2026-05-222026-05-18$15–50K
Jake AuchinclossHousesale2026-05-222026-05-18$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Jake AuchinclossHousesale2026-02-192026-02-17$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-11-21$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-05-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.