STROSutro Biopharma, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.60 · now $15.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STRO has typically landed between $10.58 and $22.36 — a range of −32.2% to +43.3% from the issuance price $15.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,981 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-272026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STRO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.58worst · -32.2%$22.36best · +43.3%
  • now $15.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.03 (-3.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.7$17.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.58$22.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,981 windows spanning 2018-09-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-06−63.1%−63.1%+2.0%
2025-02-28−59.1%−59.1%+0.0%
2025-03-03−58.7%−58.7%+4.2%
3 best
2023-11-27+99.1%+0.0%+99.1%
2023-11-28+91.2%+0.0%+99.1%
2023-11-13+89.9%+0.0%+89.9%

1,981 overlapping windows · 2018-09-272026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+1.1%
n=8
Feb
38%
−3.4%
n=8
Mar
63%
−1.4%
n=8
Apr
25%
+1.0%
n=8
May
50%
−3.2%
n=8
Jun
38%
−4.7%
n=8
Jul
50%
+2.5%
n=8
Aug
63%
+4.5%
n=8
Sep
38%
−9.4%
n=8
Oct
63%
+7.3%
n=8
Nov
38%
−2.9%
n=8
Dec
50%
+8.4%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$41$72025-10-15: 5 insider purchases, $90K — MATSUI CONNIE, Chow Gregory K., Gerber Hans-Peter, Chung Jane …2025-10: 5 open-market purchases, $90K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MATSUI CONNIE — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Chow Gregory K. — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gerber Hans-Peter — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chung Jane — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pauling David — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-10-15MATSUI CONNIEdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $0.80$40Kownership Δ n/a+18.1%+297.1%50,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Chow Gregory K.officerPurchase19,750 @ $0.81$16Kownership Δ n/a+18.1%+297.1%19,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Gerber Hans-PeterofficerPurchase17,000 @ $0.80$14K+31.0% of holding+18.1%+297.1%71,832Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Chung JanedirectorPurchase12,500 @ $0.80$10K+11.3% of holding+18.1%+297.1%122,850Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Pauling DavidofficerPurchase12,504 @ $0.80$10K+21.1% of holding+18.1%+297.1%71,737Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Dybbs MichaeldirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05Lobacki Joseph MdirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05Hunter HeididirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05Petree Daniel HdirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05Wigginton Jon MarcdirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05Jagpal SukhidirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05MATSUI CONNIEdirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-05PANEK JAMES PdirectorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-06-02Chow Gregory K.officerOption exercise2,5004,725Form 4
2026-06-02Chow Gregory K.officerOption exercise2,5007,500Form 4
2026-03-04Chung JanedirectorWithheld for tax28221,285Form 4
2026-03-04Pauling DavidofficerWithheld for tax2779,748Form 4
2026-03-04Pauling DavidofficerOption exercise6750Form 4
2026-03-04Pauling DavidofficerOption exercise67510,025Form 4
2026-03-04Chung JanedirectorOption exercise7880Form 4
2026-03-04Chung JanedirectorOption exercise78821,567Form 4
2026-03-02Chung JanedirectorWithheld for tax2,77920,779Form 4
2026-03-02Gerber Hans-PeterofficerWithheld for tax1,1709,518Form 4
2026-03-02Pauling DavidofficerWithheld for tax9709,350Form 4
2026-03-02Chung JanedirectorAward / grant175,000175,000Form 4
2026-03-02Pauling DavidofficerOption exercise2,35610,320Form 4
2026-03-02Pauling DavidofficerOption exercise2,3567,069Form 4
2026-03-02Pauling DavidofficerAward / grant4,2004,200Form 4
2026-03-02Pauling DavidofficerAward / grant33,60033,600Form 4
2026-03-02Gerber Hans-PeterofficerOption exercise2,84310,688Form 4
2026-03-02Gerber Hans-PeterofficerOption exercise2,8438,532Form 4
2026-03-02Gerber Hans-PeterofficerAward / grant5,0005,000Form 4
2026-03-02Gerber Hans-PeterofficerAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-03-02Chow Gregory K.officerAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-03-02Chow Gregory K.officerAward / grant5,0005,000Form 4
2026-03-02Chung JanedirectorOption exercise7,75023,558Form 4
2026-03-02Chung JanedirectorOption exercise7,75023,250Form 4
2026-03-02Chung JanedirectorAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-03-01Chung JanedirectorWithheld for tax1,27115,808Form 4
2026-03-01Pauling DavidofficerWithheld for tax5517,964Form 4
2026-03-01Gerber Hans-PeterofficerWithheld for tax4637,845Form 4
2026-03-01Gerber Hans-PeterofficerOption exercise1,1252,250Form 4
2026-03-01Gerber Hans-PeterofficerOption exercise1,1258,308Form 4
2026-03-01Chung JanedirectorOption exercise68814,579Form 4
2026-03-01Chung JanedirectorOption exercise2,50017,079Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.