Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.60 · now $15.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STRO has typically landed between $10.58 and $22.36 — a range of −32.2% to +43.3% from the issuance price $15.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,981 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STRO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.03 (-3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.7–$17.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.58–$22.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-06 | −63.1% | −63.1% | +2.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +4.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-27 | +99.1% | +0.0% | +99.1% |
| 2023-11-28 | +91.2% | +0.0% | +99.1% |
| 2023-11-13 | +89.9% | +0.0% | +89.9% |
1,981 overlapping windows · 2018-09-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-15 | MATSUI CONNIE | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $0.80 | $40K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.1% | +297.1% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Chow Gregory K. | officer | Purchase | 19,750 @ $0.81 | $16K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.1% | +297.1% | 19,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Purchase | 17,000 @ $0.80 | $14K | +31.0% of holding | +18.1% | +297.1% | 71,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Chung Jane | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $0.80 | $10K | +11.3% of holding | +18.1% | +297.1% | 122,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Pauling David | officer | Purchase | 12,504 @ $0.80 | $10K | +21.1% of holding | +18.1% | +297.1% | 71,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Dybbs Michael | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lobacki Joseph M | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hunter Heidi | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Petree Daniel H | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Wigginton Jon Marc | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jagpal Sukhi | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | MATSUI CONNIE | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | PANEK JAMES P | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Chow Gregory K. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Chow Gregory K. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Chung Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 282 | 21,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pauling David | officer | Withheld for tax | 277 | 9,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pauling David | officer | Option exercise | 675 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pauling David | officer | Option exercise | 675 | 10,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 788 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 788 | 21,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chung Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 2,779 | 20,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,170 | 9,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pauling David | officer | Withheld for tax | 970 | 9,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chung Jane | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pauling David | officer | Option exercise | 2,356 | 10,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pauling David | officer | Option exercise | 2,356 | 7,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pauling David | officer | Award / grant | 4,200 | 4,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pauling David | officer | Award / grant | 33,600 | 33,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Option exercise | 2,843 | 10,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Option exercise | 2,843 | 8,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chow Gregory K. | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chow Gregory K. | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 7,750 | 23,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 7,750 | 23,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chung Jane | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chung Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 1,271 | 15,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pauling David | officer | Withheld for tax | 551 | 7,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 463 | 7,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,125 | 2,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gerber Hans-Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,125 | 8,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 688 | 14,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Chung Jane | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 17,079 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.