STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.Industrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $482.67 · now $482.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STRL has typically landed between $401.79 and $641.88 — a range of −16.8% to +33.0% from the issuance price $482.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($482.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STRL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $482.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$401.79worst · -16.8%$641.88best · +33.0%
  • now $482.67 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $505.03 (+4.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $447.98–$562.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $401.79–$641.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2015-01-13−50.7%−50.7%+0.0%
2015-01-09−50.6%−50.6%+0.3%
2015-01-14−50.5%−50.5%+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-07+131.9%+0.0%+131.9%
2026-04-06+104.7%−2.9%+104.7%
2015-03-05+98.3%+0.0%+99.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−2.7%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Mar
35%
−0.3%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.0%
n=20
May
55%
+7.1%
n=20
Jun
55%
+2.8%
n=20
Jul
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
+2.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
+3.2%
n=20
Oct
60%
+3.1%
n=20
Nov
70%
+7.9%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$994$2742026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Wolf Mark D.2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $24.9M — CUTILLO JOSEPH A2026-03-25: 1 insider sale, $22.7M — CUTILLO JOSEPH A2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $511K — Wilson Dwayne Andree2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $19.8M — CUTILLO JOSEPH A2026-03-09: 2 insider sales, $23.1M — CUTILLO JOSEPH A, Dill Julie2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $495K — Wilson Dwayne Andree2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $820K — O'Brien Dana C.2026-02-06: 2 insider sales, $790K — O'Brien Dana C. …2026-01-16: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Wilson Dwayne Andree2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $66.6M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $24.9M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wolf Mark D. — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CUTILLO JOSEPH A — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CUTILLO JOSEPH A — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Wilson Dwayne Andree — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CUTILLO JOSEPH A — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CUTILLO JOSEPH A — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dill Julie — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector Wilson Dwayne Andree — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector O'Brien Dana C. — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector O'Brien Dana C. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector O'Brien Dana C. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Wilson Dwayne Andree — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25Wolf Mark D.officerSale2,500 @ $888.00$2.2M−8.2% of holding−28.7%not yet — horizon still open28,137Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorSale50,000 @ $497.57$24.9M−14.7% of holding+42.6%not yet — horizon still open290,593Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorSale50,000 @ $453.48$22.7M−12.8% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open340,593Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorSale1,260 @ $405.95$511K−9.3% of holding+10.2%+11.0%12,289Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-10CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorSale47,592 @ $416.21$19.8M−10.9% of holding+5.2%+7.1%390,593Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorSale52,408 @ $408.42$21.4M−10.7% of holding+3.0%+8.6%438,185Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Dill JuliedirectorSale4,500 @ $384.28$1.7M−20.1% of holding+3.0%+8.6%17,853Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-05Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorSale1,200 @ $412.36$495K−8.1% of holding+1.7%+1.2%13,549Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09O'Brien Dana C.directorSale2,000 @ $410.00$820K−14.8% of holding+3.0%+15.6%11,498Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06O'Brien Dana C.directorSale1,000 @ $400.00$400K−6.9% of holding+4.5%+19.2%13,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06O'Brien Dana C.directorSale1,000 @ $390.00$390K−6.5% of holding+4.5%+19.2%14,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorSale2,860 @ $350.00$1.0M−16.2% of holding+17.8%+89.1%14,749Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-24Wolf Mark D.officerSale3,500 @ $225.87$791K−10.7% of holding+5.6%+23.0%29,315Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16O'Brien Dana C.directorSale10,154 @ $206.58$2.1M−38.1% of holding+15.1%+38.7%16,498Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorPurchase8,120 @ $124.32$1.0M+1.7% of holding−5.4%+109.7%473,147Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Wolf Mark D.officerSale2,563 @ $122.16$313K−7.2% of holding+0.1%+127.5%32,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18O'Brien Dana C.directorSale2,000 @ $175.89$352K−7.2% of holding+16.2%+32.8%25,901Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Govin Daniel P.officerWithheld for tax6,55943,485Form 4
2026-07-10GRINDSTAFF NICHOLAS MofficerWithheld for tax5566,037Form 4
2026-06-18Dill JuliedirectorGift32517,709Form 4
2026-05-20CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorAward / grant40,000330,593Form 4
2026-05-07Bosway William TdirectorAward / grant1812,198Form 4
2026-05-07CREGG ROGER AdirectorAward / grant18145,333Form 4
2026-05-07O'Brien Dana C.directorAward / grant18111,679Form 4
2026-05-07Schulz David S.directorAward / grant181654Form 4
2026-05-07ROSE B ANDREWdirectorAward / grant181654Form 4
2026-05-07Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorAward / grant18112,470Form 4
2026-05-07Dill JuliedirectorAward / grant18118,034Form 4
2026-02-25CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorWithheld for tax11,668490,593Form 4
2026-02-25Wolf Mark D.officerWithheld for tax1,19330,637Form 4
2026-02-25Wolf Mark D.officerAward / grant2,99631,830Form 4
2026-02-25CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorAward / grant30,488502,261Form 4
2026-01-01Wolf Mark D.officerAward / grant46328,834Form 4
2026-01-01Govin Daniel P.officerAward / grant1,80750,044Form 4
2026-01-01GRINDSTAFF NICHOLAS MofficerAward / grant1,0296,593Form 4
2026-01-01CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorAward / grant8,046471,773Form 4
2025-12-31CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorWithheld for tax9,545463,727Form 4
2025-12-31Wolf Mark D.officerWithheld for tax89428,371Form 4
2025-12-31Govin Daniel P.officerWithheld for tax75548,237Form 4
2025-12-31GRINDSTAFF NICHOLAS MofficerWithheld for tax615,564Form 4
2025-12-15Wolf Mark D.officerGift5029,265Form 4
2025-11-12O'Brien Dana C.directorGift1,00015,498Form 4
2025-09-02BALLSCHMIEDE RONALD AofficerAward / grant1,674258,332Form 4
2025-08-06Govin Daniel P.officerWithheld for tax6,55948,851Form 4
2025-07-10Schulz David S.directorAward / grant473473Form 4
2025-07-10GRINDSTAFF NICHOLAS MofficerAward / grant5,0005,000Form 4
2025-07-10GRINDSTAFF NICHOLAS MofficerAward / grant5605,560Form 4
2025-07-10ROSE B ANDREWdirectorAward / grant473473Form 4
2025-05-08CREGG ROGER AdirectorAward / grant75145,152Form 4
2025-05-08Bosway William TdirectorAward / grant7512,017Form 4
2025-05-08Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorAward / grant75117,609Form 4
2025-05-08O'Brien Dana C.directorAward / grant75126,652Form 4
2025-05-08Dill JuliedirectorAward / grant75122,353Form 4
2025-03-12BALLSCHMIEDE RONALD AofficerGift211256,658Form 4
2025-03-04VILLAVERDE SHARONofficerWithheld for tax1,11610,434Form 4
2025-02-26CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorWithheld for tax23,188465,027Form 4
2025-02-26BALLSCHMIEDE RONALD AofficerWithheld for tax8,014256,869Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.