Issued 2026-08-13 at $32.97 · now $31.31 (2026-08-13, −5.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, STOK has typically landed between $23.30 and $46.92 — a range of −29.3% to +42.3% from the issuance price $32.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,777 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-19 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($32.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STOK has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $32.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $31.31 (-5.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.9 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.61–$37.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.3–$46.92
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-21 | −53.5% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-28 | −53.0% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-27 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-03-12 | +103.6% | −12.5% | +113.7% |
| 2024-03-20 | +101.2% | +0.0% | +136.6% |
| 2024-03-19 | +100.9% | +0.0% | +144.3% |
1,777 overlapping windows · 2019-06-19 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Double-blind Study Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Zorevunersen in Patients With Dravet Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Open-Label Extension Study of STK-001 for Patients With Dravet Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.