Issued 2026-09-25 at $24.80 · now $24.80 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, STOK has typically landed between $17.53 and $35.29 — a range of −29.3% to +42.3% from the issuance price $24.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,807 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-19 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($24.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STOK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $24.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.9 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.66–$28.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.53–$35.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,807 windows spanning 2019-06-19 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-21 | −53.5% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-28 | −53.0% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-27 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-03-12 | +103.6% | −12.5% | +113.7% |
| 2024-03-20 | +101.2% | +0.0% | +136.6% |
| 2024-03-19 | +100.9% | +0.0% | +144.3% |
1,807 overlapping windows · 2019-06-19 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Double-blind Study Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Zorevunersen in Patients With Dravet Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Open-Label Extension Study of STK-001 for Patients With Dravet Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
29%
−3.4%
n=7
Feb
43%
+3.9%
n=7
Mar
29%
+1.1%
n=7
Apr
43%
−3.0%
n=7
May
57%
+12.7%
n=7
Jun
43%
−1.1%
n=7
Jul
50%
−4.8%
n=8
Aug
63%
+13.2%
n=8
Sep
25%
−11.6%
n=8
Oct
71%
+11.0%
n=7
Nov
43%
−2.5%
n=7
Dec
71%
+12.3%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 3,945 @ $30.51 | $120K | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $31.06 | $50K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 11,930 @ $32.01 | $382K | −8.7% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 4,525 @ $32.01 | $145K | −14.9% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,716 @ $32.01 | $87K | −11.3% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 637 @ $32.47 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,557 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 242 @ $32.47 | $8K | −0.9% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,655 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 145 @ $32.47 | $5K | −0.7% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 5,907 @ $28.95 | $171K | −21.4% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,269 @ $29.45 | $37K | −5.9% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 6,728 @ $32.62 | $219K | −19.3% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,098 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 500 @ $33.27 | $17K | −1.8% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,598 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,457 @ $29.95 | $44K | −7.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,086 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,795 @ $30.58 | $55K | −4.9% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 2,243 @ $32.79 | $74K | −5.8% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,621 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,838 @ $32.66 | $60K | −4.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 8,692 @ $33.64 | $292K | −30.1% of holding | −2.3% | −35.9% | 20,144 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 601 @ $34.41 | $21K | −3.0% of holding | −2.3% | −35.9% | 19,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,461 @ $29.99 | $44K | −3.5% of holding | +2.1% | −30.4% | 40,702 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 6,100 @ $31.28 | $191K | −12.8% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 41,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,222 @ $31.28 | $132K | −12.6% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 29,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Leggett Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,173 @ $31.28 | $68K | −17.3% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hoitt Jason | officer | Sale | 1,762 @ $31.28 | $55K | −14.4% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 483 @ $31.79 | $15K | −1.2% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 40,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 334 @ $31.79 | $11K | −1.1% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 28,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Leggett Thomas | officer | Sale | 172 @ $31.79 | $5K | −1.7% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hoitt Jason | officer | Sale | 139 @ $31.79 | $4K | −1.3% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 103 @ $32.85 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 40,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 72 @ $32.85 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 28,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Leggett Thomas | officer | Sale | 37 @ $32.85 | $1K | −0.4% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,172 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hoitt Jason | officer | Sale | 30 @ $32.85 | $986 | −0.3% of holding | +12.5% | −22.4% | 10,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 3,577 @ $32.74 | $117K | −6.7% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 50,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 2,587 @ $33.38 | $86K | −5.2% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 47,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,476 @ $32.74 | $81K | −6.6% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 35,255 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,791 @ $33.38 | $60K | −5.1% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 33,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Leggett Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,274 @ $32.74 | $42K | −8.6% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 13,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Hoitt Jason | officer | Sale | 1,033 @ $32.74 | $34K | −7.4% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 12,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Leggett Thomas | officer | Sale | 922 @ $33.38 | $31K | −6.8% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 12,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Hoitt Jason | officer | Sale | 748 @ $33.38 | $25K | −5.8% of holding | +2.6% | −27.8% | 12,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | LEVIN ARTHUR A | director | Sale | 605 @ $36.80 | $22K | −12.5% of holding | +2.9% | −26.0% | 4,237 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Krainer Adrian R. | director | Sale | 33,243 @ $39.74 | $1.3M | −10.5% of holding | −9.0% | −35.2% | 283,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | TZIANABOS ARTHUR | director | Sale | 4,355 @ $40.00 | $174K | −12.2% of holding | −9.0% | −35.2% | 31,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Krainer Adrian R. | director | Sale | 7,229 @ $39.66 | $287K | −2.2% of holding | −6.3% | −27.3% | 316,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 8,274 @ $32.52 | $269K | −14.1% of holding | +0.9% | −20.4% | 50,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 3,825 @ $31.44 | $120K | −6.1% of holding | +0.9% | −20.4% | 58,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,678 @ $32.61 | $87K | −18.5% of holding | +0.9% | −20.4% | 11,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 1,331 @ $33.10 | $44K | −2.6% of holding | +0.9% | −20.4% | 49,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $31.60 | $41K | −8.2% of holding | +0.9% | −20.4% | 14,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 6,367 @ $31.33 | $199K | −9.0% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 64,735 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 5,437 @ $31.08 | $169K | −23.0% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 18,153 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,344 @ $31.76 | $74K | −12.9% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 15,809 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,989 @ $31.35 | $62K | −9.1% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 19,798 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,673 @ $31.33 | $52K | −7.1% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 21,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 1,681 @ $31.15 | $52K | −2.6% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 63,054 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,004 @ $31.33 | $31K | −4.1% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 23,590 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 500 @ $31.85 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | +13.1% | −13.0% | 62,554 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 5,222 @ $30.76 | $161K | −6.7% of holding | +12.0% | −15.2% | 72,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Ticho Barry | officer | Sale | 1,373 @ $30.76 | $42K | −5.5% of holding | +12.0% | −15.2% | 23,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Sale | 1,231 @ $31.32 | $39K | −1.7% of holding | +12.0% | −15.2% | 71,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Sale | 824 @ $30.76 | $25K | −3.2% of holding | +12.0% | −15.2% | 24,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
173 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Cumbo Alexander | director | Award / grant | 39,674 | 39,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Option exercise | 26,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 30,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 24,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Option exercise | 26,250 | 137,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 19,441 | 19,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 17,786 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 29,747 | 29,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 29,747 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 7,639 | 7,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 21,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 19,441 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 7,639 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 29,555 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 29,555 | 29,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 14,777 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 14,777 | 14,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 11,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Gift | 11,650 | 11,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | McCauley Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 225,000 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Harrison Seth Loring | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Burstein Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kaye Edward M. MD | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Krainer Adrian R. | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | LEVIN ARTHUR A | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Smith Julie | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | TZIANABOS ARTHUR | director | Award / grant | 17,786 | 17,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kahn Clare | director | Award / grant | 30,782 | 30,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 1,365 | 42,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 1,365 | 83,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 25,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,475 | 19,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 10,750 | 32,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Ticho Barry | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,475 | 7,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Allan Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 37,731 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.