STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Basic Materials · Steelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $238.23 · now $238.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STLD has typically landed between $204.22 and $284.69 — a range of −14.3% to +19.5% from the issuance price $238.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($238.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where STLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $238.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$204.22worst · -14.3%$284.69best · +19.5%
  • now $238.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $244.86 (+2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $227.11–$262.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $204.22–$284.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−66.4%−66.4%+1.5%
2008-09-11−64.0%−64.0%+6.1%
2008-09-10−60.1%−60.1%+7.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+98.3%+0.0%+144.7%
2008-11-19+85.3%−17.3%+102.4%
2008-12-04+81.5%+0.0%+81.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$35.6B
market cap
$11.03
EPS (TTM)
22.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-19
next earnings
Revenue$18.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$502M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $238.23$81.72$289.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$96.04
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$263.25
  • Analyst target · range $260.00–$275.00$267.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$238.23

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
79%
+4.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
+3.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.4%
n=19
May
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
37%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.3%
n=19
Aug
37%
−3.7%
n=19
Sep
47%
−3.3%
n=19
Oct
78%
+5.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$282$1242026-06-05: 4 insider sales, $2.7M — Anderson James Stanley …2026-05-13: 3 insider sales, $2.1M — Graham Christopher A …2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $538K — Poinsatte Richard A2026-04-23: 5 insider sales, $2.2M — Cornew Kenneth W., Alvarez Miguel …2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Alvarez Miguel2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-04: 5 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Anderson James Stanley — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Anderson James Stanley — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Anderson James Stanley — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Anderson James Stanley — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Graham Christopher A — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Graham Christopher A — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Graham Christopher A — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Poinsatte Richard A — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cornew Kenneth W. — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alvarez Miguel — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alvarez Miguel — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alvarez Miguel — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cornew Kenneth W. — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alvarez Miguel — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Anderson James StanleyofficerSale4,401 @ $269.22$1.2M−4.1% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open103,159Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05Anderson James StanleyofficerSale4,177 @ $268.42$1.1M−3.7% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open107,560Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05Anderson James StanleyofficerSale1,100 @ $267.35$294K−1.0% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open111,737Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05Anderson James StanleyofficerSale322 @ $269.93$87K−0.3% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open102,837Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-13Graham Christopher AofficerSale3,000 @ $237.01$711K−4.0% of holding+19.3%not yet — horizon still open71,748Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Graham Christopher AofficerSale3,001 @ $236.90$711K−4.2% of holding+19.3%not yet — horizon still open68,747Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Graham Christopher AofficerSale2,999 @ $236.52$709K−3.9% of holding+19.3%not yet — horizon still open74,748Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Poinsatte Richard AofficerSale2,300 @ $234.11$538K−7.4% of holding+20.1%not yet — horizon still open28,618Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-23Cornew Kenneth W.directorSale4,800 @ $224.85$1.1M−13.2% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open31,499Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Alvarez MiguelofficerSale3,825 @ $225.11$861K−3.0% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open123,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Alvarez MiguelofficerSale700 @ $227.82$159K−0.6% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open122,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Alvarez MiguelofficerSale300 @ $226.36$68K−0.2% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open122,957Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Cornew Kenneth W.directorSale200 @ $225.39$45K−0.6% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open31,299Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-29Alvarez MiguelofficerSale8,251 @ $162.79$1.3M−6.6% of holding+3.3%+35.7%117,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-30Graham Christopher AofficerSale6,001 @ $126.84$761K−7.6% of holding+1.0%+33.7%72,737Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-30Graham Christopher AofficerSale5,999 @ $126.57$759K−8.2% of holding+1.0%+33.7%66,738Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Shaheen GabrieldirectorSale1,254 @ $134.11$168K−1.5% of holding−2.2%+9.5%81,812Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-20Alvarez MiguelofficerSale7,495 @ $135.26$1.0M−5.6% of holding−7.5%+3.1%125,319Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-11Pushis GlennofficerSale23,649 @ $134.67$3.2M−16.2% of holding+0.3%−10.6%122,140Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant725,376Form 4
2026-07-28MILLETT MARK DdirectorGift3003,016,401Form 4
2026-07-10BARGABOS SHEREE LdirectorAward / grant4327,105Form 4
2026-07-10DOLAN TRACI MdirectorAward / grant10258,970Form 4
2026-07-10Sierra Luis ManueldirectorAward / grant711,523Form 4
2026-07-10Seaman Bradley SdirectorAward / grant10951,600Form 4
2026-07-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant185,304Form 4
2026-07-10Cornew Kenneth W.directorAward / grant232,013Form 4
2026-06-01DOLAN TRACI MdirectorAward / grant71258,868Form 4
2026-06-01Seaman Bradley SdirectorAward / grant71251,491Form 4
2026-06-01Sierra Luis ManueldirectorAward / grant71211,516Form 4
2026-06-01BARGABOS SHEREE LdirectorAward / grant71227,062Form 4
2026-06-01Cornew Kenneth W.directorAward / grant71232,011Form 4
2026-06-01Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant7125,286Form 4
2026-05-14Poinsatte Richard AofficerGift20028,418Form 4
2026-05-06Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant794,574Form 4
2026-05-06BARGABOS SHEREE LdirectorAward / grant15826,350Form 4
2026-05-06TEETS RICHARD P JRdirectorAward / grant1584,980,252Form 4
2026-05-01Bickford ChadofficerWithheld for tax16624,025Form 4
2026-04-10Cornew Kenneth W.directorAward / grant536,299Form 4
2026-04-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant164,495Form 4
2026-04-10Seaman Bradley SdirectorAward / grant12950,779Form 4
2026-04-10Shaheen GabrieldirectorAward / grant15782,520Form 4
2026-04-10BARGABOS SHEREE LdirectorAward / grant5826,192Form 4
2026-04-10TEETS RICHARD P JRdirectorAward / grant94,980,094Form 4
2026-04-10Sierra Luis ManueldirectorAward / grant1210,804Form 4
2026-04-10DOLAN TRACI MdirectorAward / grant12058,156Form 4
2026-03-13MILLETT MARK DdirectorWithheld for tax20,6253,016,701Form 4
2026-03-13SCHNEIDER BARRYofficerWithheld for tax11,662246,399Form 4
2026-03-13Wagler Theresa EdirectorWithheld for tax9,114495,038Form 4
2026-03-13Alvarez MiguelofficerWithheld for tax7,232127,082Form 4
2026-03-13Graham Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax7,23277,747Form 4
2026-03-13Anderson James StanleyofficerWithheld for tax6,468112,837Form 4
2026-03-13Poinsatte Richard AofficerWithheld for tax2,74430,918Form 4
2026-03-13MILLETT MARK DdirectorAward / grant46,4223,037,326Form 4
2026-03-13Graham Christopher AofficerAward / grant16,47984,979Form 4
2026-03-13Wagler Theresa EdirectorAward / grant20,766504,152Form 4
2026-03-13Alvarez MiguelofficerAward / grant16,479134,314Form 4
2026-03-13SCHNEIDER BARRYofficerAward / grant26,571258,061Form 4
2026-03-13Poinsatte Richard AofficerAward / grant6,25333,662Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-07-082024-06-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-07-082024-06-20$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.