STKS · TickerCove

STKSThe ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.53 · now $1.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STKS has typically landed between $1.17 and $1.96 — a range of −23.3% to +28.3% from the issuance price $1.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,052 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.53 · 0% of range

$1.53 low$3.12 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.1%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−23.3%worst (p90)+28.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where STKS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.53 (+0.0%)
typical $1.47 (-4.1%)
middle 50% $1.33–$1.6
90% range $1.17–$1.96

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,052 windows spanning 2014-06-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−80.9%	−80.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−73.3%	−73.3%	+2.9%
2020-02-20	−73.1%	−74.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-02-18	+90.4%	+0.0%	+90.4%
2021-02-16	+85.7%	+0.0%	+85.7%
2021-02-17	+81.5%	−3.2%	+81.5%

3,052 overlapping windows · 2014-06-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

42%

+2.3%

n=12

Feb

33%

−0.4%

n=12

Mar

58%

+2.8%

n=12

Apr

42%

+3.9%

n=12

May

50%

+1.6%

n=12

Jun

50%

−2.3%

n=12

Jul

31%

−3.5%

n=13

Aug

31%

−1.2%

n=13

Sep

46%

−1.1%

n=13

Oct

25%

−5.1%

n=12

Nov

58%

+11.9%

n=12

Dec

50%

−0.6%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-07-09	Kanen David	other	Sale	87,904 @ $4.70	$413K	−4.0% of holding	−44.5%	−67.3%	2,110,941	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-09	Kanen David	other	Sale	72,096 @ $4.70	$339K	−3.8% of holding	−44.5%	−67.3%	1,823,266	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-08	Kanen David	other	Sale	42,242 @ $4.77	$201K	−1.9% of holding	−40.3%	−69.1%	2,198,845	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08	Kanen David	other	Sale	34,638 @ $4.77	$165K	−1.8% of holding	−40.3%	−69.1%	1,895,362	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-07	Kanen David	other	Sale	48,780 @ $4.94	$241K	−2.1% of holding	−36.6%	−70.3%	2,241,087	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07	Kanen David	other	Sale	40,000 @ $4.94	$198K	−2.0% of holding	−36.6%	−70.3%	1,930,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27	Kanen David	other	Sale	24,431 @ $4.61	$113K	−1.1% of holding	−27.0%	−69.4%	2,289,867	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Loy Tyler	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $2.55	$26K	+4.8% of holding	+3.9%	−19.3%	220,246	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Segal Jonathan	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $2.46	$5K	+0.1% of holding	+23.7%	−13.0%	3,201,233	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	Segal Jonathan	director	Gift	600,000	2,661,400	Form 4
2026-06-30	CHAMBERS JAMES P.	director	Award / grant	15,547	97,078	Form 4
2026-06-30	ROSS SCOTT I	director	Award / grant	15,547	97,078	Form 4
2026-06-30	Angelis Dimitrios	director	Award / grant	15,547	206,908	Form 4
2026-06-30	BULLIS EUGENE M	director	Award / grant	15,547	275,337	Form 4
2026-06-30	Lintonsmith Susan	director	Award / grant	15,547	134,082	Form 4
2026-06-30	Olinger Haydee	director	Award / grant	15,547	143,822	Form 4
2026-06-30	Serruya Michael	director	Award / grant	15,547	337,843	Form 4
2026-04-29	Thaung Nicole	officer	Award / grant	46,059	184,875	Form 4
2026-04-29	Segal Jonathan	director	Award / grant	4,314	3,261,400	Form 4
2026-04-29	HILARIO EMANUEL N	director	Award / grant	11,505	2,013,429	Form 4
2026-04-29	Thaung Nicole	officer	Award / grant	17,521	202,396	Form 4
2026-04-15	HILARIO EMANUEL N	director	Withheld for tax	28,599	2,001,924	Form 4
2026-04-15	Segal Jonathan	director	Withheld for tax	11,262	3,257,086	Form 4
2026-04-15	Hing Christi	officer	Withheld for tax	5,590	101,352	Form 4
2026-04-15	Thaung Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	3,203	138,816	Form 4
2026-03-31	Angelis Dimitrios	director	Award / grant	17,556	191,361	Form 4
2026-03-31	ROSS SCOTT I	director	Award / grant	17,556	81,531	Form 4
2026-03-31	Lintonsmith Susan	director	Award / grant	17,556	118,535	Form 4
2026-03-31	CHAMBERS JAMES P.	director	Award / grant	17,556	81,531	Form 4
2026-03-31	Olinger Haydee	director	Award / grant	17,556	128,275	Form 4
2026-03-31	BULLIS EUGENE M	director	Award / grant	17,556	259,790	Form 4
2026-03-31	Serruya Michael	director	Award / grant	17,556	322,296	Form 4
2026-03-03	HILARIO EMANUEL N	director	Award / grant	91,146	1,929,250	Form 4
2026-03-03	Segal Jonathan	director	Award / grant	34,180	3,230,371	Form 4
2026-03-03	Thaung Nicole	officer	Award / grant	32,552	105,850	Form 4
2026-03-03	Hing Christi	officer	Award / grant	25,000	106,942	Form 4
2026-03-03	Thaung Nicole	officer	Award / grant	36,169	142,019	Form 4
2026-03-03	HILARIO EMANUEL N	director	Award / grant	101,273	2,030,523	Form 4
2026-03-03	Segal Jonathan	director	Award / grant	37,977	3,268,348	Form 4
2025-12-31	BULLIS EUGENE M	director	Award / grant	17,857	242,234	Form 4
2025-12-31	Serruya Michael	director	Award / grant	17,857	304,740	Form 4
2025-12-31	Angelis Dimitrios	director	Award / grant	17,857	173,805	Form 4
2025-12-31	CHAMBERS JAMES P.	director	Award / grant	17,857	63,975	Form 4
2025-12-31	ROSS SCOTT I	director	Award / grant	17,857	63,975	Form 4
2025-12-31	Olinger Haydee	director	Award / grant	17,857	110,719	Form 4
2025-12-31	Lintonsmith Susan	director	Award / grant	17,857	100,979	Form 4
2025-09-30	BULLIS EUGENE M	director	Award / grant	10,557	224,377	Form 4
2025-09-30	Angelis Dimitrios	director	Award / grant	10,557	155,948	Form 4
2025-09-30	ROSS SCOTT I	director	Award / grant	10,557	46,118	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i