Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.76 · now $2.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STIM has typically landed between $1.85 and $4.36 — a range of −32.9% to +57.9% from the issuance price $2.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,044 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STIM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.62 (-4.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.09–$3.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.85–$4.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-15 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +5.8% |
| 2020-02-21 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-07-12 | −60.2% | −60.2% | +7.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-08 | +157.3% | +0.0% | +157.3% |
| 2020-07-13 | +156.7% | +0.0% | +156.7% |
| 2025-01-02 | +131.5% | +0.0% | +131.5% |
2,044 overlapping windows · 2018-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,000 @ $3.16 | $44K | +0.1% of holding | −12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,602,988 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $3.21 | $321 | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $1.78 | $62K | +0.3% of holding | +78.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,588,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.17 | $117K | +1.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,553,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 475,000 @ $1.34 | $637K | +4.8% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,453,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.51 | $151K | +1.0% of holding | −25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,978,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.58 | $158K | +1.0% of holding | −28.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,878,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 385,442 @ $1.25 | $482K | +4.1% of holding | +21.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,778,988 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-27 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.35 | $675K | +5.6% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,393,276 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.44 | $36K | +0.3% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,893,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 125,000 @ $1.40 | $175K | +1.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,868,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 169,472 @ $1.41 | $239K | +2.0% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,743,276 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 450,000 @ $1.33 | $599K | +5.5% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,573,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 46,289 @ $1.34 | $62K | −2.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,590,924 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Sale | 16,431 @ $1.34 | $22K | −1.9% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 828,781 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 16,005 @ $1.34 | $21K | −1.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 897,270 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 607,400 @ $1.35 | $820K | +8.1% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,123,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 531,000 @ $1.16 | $616K | +7.6% of holding | +8.9% | +111.4% | 7,516,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 609 @ $1.34 | $816 | −0.1% of holding | +18.3% | +96.0% | 879,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 8,452 @ $1.35 | $11K | −0.6% of holding | −1.4% | +96.0% | 1,524,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 3,427 @ $1.35 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | −1.4% | +96.0% | 880,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 33,847 @ $1.65 | $56K | −2.2% of holding | −12.1% | +94.3% | 1,533,165 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 14,120 @ $1.65 | $23K | −2.1% of holding | −12.1% | +94.3% | 673,561 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 40,976 @ $1.55 | $64K | −2.5% of holding | −9.2% | +107.7% | 1,567,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 3,485 @ $1.55 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −9.2% | +107.7% | 687,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,925,554 @ $3.72 | $10.9M | −14.4% of holding | −12.7% | −73.5% | 17,333,542 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 381,640 @ $3.72 | $1.4M | −14.4% of holding | −12.7% | −73.5% | 2,261,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 192,806 @ $3.72 | $717K | −14.4% of holding | −12.7% | −73.5% | 1,142,351 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 6,540 @ $4.16 | $27K | −1.6% of holding | −17.3% | −67.6% | 410,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 193,460 @ $4.27 | $826K | −31.7% of holding | −10.9% | −65.9% | 416,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 1,867 @ $4.48 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −20.3% | −47.6% | 610,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 377 @ $4.48 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −20.3% | −47.6% | 526,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 24,440 @ $4.70 | $115K | −1.9% of holding | +18.5% | −30.1% | 1,232,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 25,934 @ $4.41 | $114K | −2.0% of holding | +7.5% | −37.9% | 1,257,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 18,965 @ $4.11 | $78K | −4.9% of holding | +21.3% | −24.9% | 369,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 17,307 @ $4.11 | $71K | −3.7% of holding | +21.3% | −24.9% | 454,420 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 12,175 @ $3.83 | $47K | −3.0% of holding | +20.3% | −18.1% | 388,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 10,845 @ $3.83 | $42K | −2.2% of holding | +20.3% | −18.1% | 471,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Sale | 40,992 @ $3.28 | $134K | −3.1% of holding | +27.6% | −6.9% | 1,283,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Furlong Stephen | officer | Sale | 14,836 @ $3.28 | $49K | −3.0% of holding | +27.6% | −6.9% | 482,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Sale | 1,970 @ $3.28 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | +27.6% | −6.9% | 400,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Naor Nir | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Amin Avinash | director | Other acquisition | 34,932 | 34,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,934 | 1,435,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Amin Avinash | director | Other acquisition | 4,634 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 34,932 | 17,104,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,634 | 2,269,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Amin Avinash | director | Other acquisition | 2,934 | 69,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rosengarten Megan | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 170,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,071 | 1,433,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 24,658 | 17,069,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,271 | 2,264,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Amin Avinash | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 72,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | CASCELLA ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 36,250 | 625,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | CONLEY SHERYL L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 251,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Cucuz Sasha | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 1,542,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | MUIR GLENN P | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 401,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | REUVERS DANIEL L. | director | Award / grant | 1,500,000 | 1,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 845,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Sullivan Keith J | director | Award / grant | 112,500 | 1,637,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Award / grant | 33,750 | 913,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 820,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Award / grant | 210,000 | 883,561 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Award / grant | 170,212 | 570,212 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | MACAN WILLIAM ANDREW | officer | Award / grant | 164,361 | 691,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | MUIR GLENN P | director | Award / grant | 7,554 | 371,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Cucuz Sasha | director | Award / grant | 6,410 | 1,512,798 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | CASCELLA ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 10,531 | 588,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | CONLEY SHERYL L | director | Award / grant | 7,326 | 221,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | Pfanstiel Steven | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 337,312 | 17,044,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Madryn Asset Management, LP | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 337,312 | 1,430,953 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | CASCELLA ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 36,250 | 578,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | CONLEY SHERYL L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 214,390 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Amin Avinash | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 42,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | MUIR GLENN P | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 364,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Cucuz Sasha | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 1,506,388 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Amin Avinash | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 42,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | CASCELLA ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 36,250 | 578,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | CONLEY SHERYL L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 214,390 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.