Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.55 · now $6.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STI has typically landed between $3.02 and $12.37 — a range of −53.8% to +88.8% from the issuance price $6.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,064 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.56 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.86–$7.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.02–$12.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-01-23 | −95.1% | −95.1% | +14.8% |
| 2024-01-24 | −94.1% | −95.0% | +16.4% |
| 2024-01-29 | −93.7% | −95.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-22 | +695.6% | +0.0% | +695.6% |
| 2026-05-06 | +566.4% | −14.6% | +566.4% |
| 2024-03-06 | +519.2% | +0.0% | +519.2% |
1,064 overlapping windows · 2022-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Tjon Karin-Joyce | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $7.20 | $36K | +9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Prantsevich Vlad | officer | Purchase | 1,030 @ $7.13 | $7K | +42.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Winters Jaymes | director | Purchase | 984 @ $7.11 | $7K | +26.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,709 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 192,437 @ $37.31 | $7.2M | −89.1% of holding | −79.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,600 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,500 @ $44.89 | $606K | −2.6% of holding | −79.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 511,310 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,000 @ $35.99 | $72K | +0.9% of holding | −79.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,037 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 188,951 @ $23.43 | $4.4M | −26.5% of holding | −66.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 524,810 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 175,000 @ $21.09 | $3.7M | −10.0% of holding | −66.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,569,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,000 @ $24.66 | $567K | +3.3% of holding | −66.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 713,761 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000 @ $4.85 | $5K | +0.1% of holding | +54.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 690,761 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 750 @ $7.87 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +10.5% | +167.8% | 1,744,695 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 568 @ $7.87 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +8.4% | +161.3% | 1,745,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,225 @ $10.39 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −29.1% | −65.9% | 1,746,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,910 @ $10.53 | $52K | −0.3% of holding | −42.4% | −68.4% | 1,749,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,865 @ $10.89 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | −40.5% | −69.6% | 1,754,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,000 @ $5.67 | $23K | −0.3% of holding | +308.5% | −11.4% | 1,306,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-11 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,532 @ $5.25 | $34K | −0.5% of holding | −1.2% | −17.2% | 1,310,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,468 @ $5.38 | $126K | −1.8% of holding | +4.6% | −22.3% | 1,316,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,018 @ $3.40 | $17K | −0.4% of holding | +27.2% | +116.0% | 1,340,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 746 @ $3.51 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +25.1% | +127.6% | 1,345,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,323 @ $3.43 | $18K | +0.4% of holding | +20.3% | +109.5% | 1,345,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99,717 @ $0.10 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −41.6% | +97.7% | 67,555,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-28 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99,183 @ $0.10 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −39.1% | +117.0% | 67,654,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 301,100 @ $0.11 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | −42.4% | +114.8% | 67,753,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
15 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Prantsevich Vlad | officer | Other acquisition | 2,425 | 2,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Winters Jaymes | director | Other acquisition | 3,725 | 3,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ MARK N | director | Award / grant | 4,296 | 4,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Davis John Linzy | director | Award / grant | 12,853 | 52,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ellen Kimi L | director | Award / grant | 4,296 | 4,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Robinson Dante W | director | Award / grant | 4,296 | 4,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tjon Karin-Joyce | director | Award / grant | 12,853 | 52,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tjon Karin-Joyce | director | Other acquisition | 200 | 53,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 214,037 | 237,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 214,037 | 214,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 214,037 | 2,544,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ikezi Henry | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 246,664 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-09 | Global Graphene Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 450,000 | 1,756,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-09 | Davis John Linzy | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-09 | Tjon Karin-Joyce | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Lofgren | House | sale | 2019-08-07 | 2019-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2019-07-19 | 2019-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2019-04-25 | 2019-03-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-04-11 | 2019-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2019-03-04 | 2019-01-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-18 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | sale | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-26 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-10 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-10 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | sale | 2019-01-11 | 2018-12-26 | $1–15K |
| Pete Sessions | House | sale | 2018-12-21 | 2018-08-01 | $15–50K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2018-12-06 | 2018-10-09 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Macarthur | House | purchase | 2018-12-06 | 2018-10-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.