STGW · TickerCove

STGWStagwell Inc.Communication Services · Advertising Agenciesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.33 · now $8.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STGW has typically landed between $6.63 and $10.50 — a range of −20.5% to +26.0% from the issuance price $8.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.33 · 79% of range

$4.4 low$9.35 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 18.6%

−20.5%worst (p90)+26.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where STGW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.33 (+0.0%)
typical $8.32 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $7.54–$9.1
90% range $6.63–$10.5

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2016-10-07	−70.2%	−70.2%	+3.7%
2016-10-06	−69.1%	−69.1%	+0.0%
2016-10-10	−67.3%	−71.0%	+0.7%
3 best
2016-11-07	+95.2%	+0.0%	+107.9%
2020-06-25	+87.0%	+0.0%	+88.7%
2016-11-04	+80.9%	−7.4%	+92.6%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−0.1%

n=20

Feb

65%

+3.6%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.5%

n=20

Apr

40%

+1.9%

n=20

May

45%

+0.5%

n=20

Jun

65%

+4.8%

n=20

Jul

55%

+6.5%

n=20

Aug

45%

−0.7%

n=20

Sep

45%

+0.3%

n=20

Oct

65%

+0.5%

n=20

Nov

50%

−2.2%

n=20

Dec

70%

+3.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Sale	62,000 @ $8.46	$525K	−11.2% of holding	+0.0%	not yet — horizon still open	491,977	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $5.88	$118K	+0.1% of holding	+11.1%	not yet — horizon still open	23,034,990	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04	Gross Bradley J.	director	Sale	2,163,790 @ $6.04	$13.1M	−99.6% of holding	−0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	8,789	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05	Samaha Eli	director	Purchase	240,000 @ $4.43	$1.1M	+3.1% of holding	+1.6%	+14.9%	8,014,322	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-04	Samaha Eli	director	Purchase	425,757 @ $4.27	$1.8M	+5.8% of holding	+1.6%	+9.4%	7,774,322	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-04	BARSHEFSKY CHARLENE	director	Purchase	24,350 @ $4.30	$105K	+15.1% of holding	+1.6%	+9.4%	185,316	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03	Leveton Jay	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $4.06	$10K	+0.1% of holding	+3.6%	+12.7%	2,693,720	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.87	$49K	+0.1% of holding	−9.6%	−5.0%	9,014,055	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21	ROGERS DESIREE G	director	Purchase	2,086 @ $4.75	$10K	+1.3% of holding	−9.6%	−5.0%	162,014	Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Samaha Eli	director	Purchase	200,903 @ $4.76	$956K	+2.8% of holding	−8.5%	−20.6%	7,348,565	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.74	$47K	+0.1% of holding	−8.5%	−20.6%	9,004,055	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	KAPLAN BETH J	director	Award / grant	15,459	15,459	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Disposition	500,000	23,034,990	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Option exercise	500,000	23,534,990	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Disposition	75,000	23,034,990	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Option exercise	75,000	23,109,990	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Option exercise	500,000	1,000,000	Form 4
2026-08-09	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Option exercise	75,000	150,000	Form 4
2026-08-01	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Award / grant	2,000,000	2,000,000	Form 4
2026-07-01	Samaha Eli	director	Award / grant	2,691	170,764	Form 4
2026-07-01	Vaughan Brandt A.	director	Award / grant	2,355	220,504	Form 4
2026-06-11	BARSHEFSKY CHARLENE	director	Award / grant	22,970	238,286	Form 4
2026-06-11	Oosterman Wade	director	Award / grant	22,970	203,936	Form 4
2026-06-11	ROGERS DESIREE G	director	Award / grant	22,970	214,984	Form 4
2026-06-11	SIMON IRWIN D	director	Award / grant	22,970	228,891	Form 4
2026-06-11	SLATER RODNEY E	director	Award / grant	22,970	140,680	Form 4
2026-06-11	Samaha Eli	director	Award / grant	22,970	168,073	Form 4
2026-06-11	Vaughan Brandt A.	director	Award / grant	22,970	218,149	Form 4
2026-04-01	Samaha Eli	director	Award / grant	3,180	145,103	Form 4
2026-04-01	Vaughan Brandt A.	director	Award / grant	2,782	195,179	Form 4
2026-04-01	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Award / grant	74,189	553,977	Form 4
2026-04-01	Greene Ryan	officer	Award / grant	69,825	1,391,279	Form 4
2026-04-01	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Award / grant	389,432	23,014,990	Form 4
2026-04-01	Leveton Jay	officer	Award / grant	97,040	2,009,454	Form 4
2026-04-01	McElligott Peter	officer	Award / grant	36,390	122,185	Form 4
2026-03-11	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Disposition	4,572,207	22,625,558	Form 4
2026-03-11	Leveton Jay	officer	Disposition	664,754	1,912,414	Form 4
2026-03-11	Greene Ryan	officer	Disposition	403,717	1,321,454	Form 4
2026-03-11	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Disposition	40,534	479,788	Form 4
2026-03-07	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Withheld for tax	75,447	27,197,765	Form 4
2026-03-07	Leveton Jay	officer	Withheld for tax	44,230	2,577,168	Form 4
2026-03-07	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Withheld for tax	16,208	520,322	Form 4
2026-03-07	Greene Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	9,359	1,725,171	Form 4
2026-03-07	McElligott Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	8,512	85,795	Form 4
2026-03-03	Penn Mark Jeffery	director	Withheld for tax	229,529	27,273,212	Form 4
2026-03-03	Leveton Jay	officer	Withheld for tax	60,467	2,621,398	Form 4
2026-03-03	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Withheld for tax	45,534	536,530	Form 4
2026-03-03	Greene Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	21,405	1,734,530	Form 4
2026-03-03	McElligott Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	10,121	94,307	Form 4
2026-03-03	McElligott Peter	officer	Disposition	1,831	104,428	Form 4
2026-03-03	Lanuto Frank P	officer	Disposition	12,264	582,064	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i