Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.29 · now $48.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STEP has typically landed between $39.28 and $57.54 — a range of −18.7% to +19.1% from the issuance price $48.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,486 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STEP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.26 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.47–$53.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $39.28–$57.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,486 windows spanning 2020-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | −37.5% | −39.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-30 | +46.5% | +0.0% | +46.5% |
| 2020-11-27 | +45.7% | +0.0% | +45.7% |
| 2020-12-01 | +45.0% | +0.0% | +45.0% |
1,486 overlapping windows · 2020-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+2.4%
n=6
Feb
33%
−6.6%
n=6
Mar
33%
−3.5%
n=6
Apr
33%
−5.0%
n=6
May
50%
+4.5%
n=6
Jun
50%
+2.1%
n=6
Jul
100%
+11.7%
n=6
Aug
100%
+8.8%
n=6
Sep
50%
−2.9%
n=6
Oct
50%
+2.6%
n=6
Nov
67%
+0.3%
n=6
Dec
67%
+7.5%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | McCabe Michael I | director | Purchase | 96,887 @ $41.71 | $4.0M | +30.9% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 410,065 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | McCabe Michael I | director | Purchase | 23,113 @ $42.44 | $981K | +5.6% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 433,178 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 2,290 @ $42.64 | $98K | −100.0% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 85,200 @ $46.41 | $4.0M | −83.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 14,800 @ $47.33 | $700K | −86.6% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 56,176 @ $48.57 | $2.7M | −32.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 28,324 @ $47.90 | $1.4M | −14.0% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 12,117 @ $49.78 | $603K | −10.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 3,383 @ $50.59 | $171K | −3.2% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,290 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Purchase | 11,507 @ $44.18 | $508K | +894.8% of holding | +12.4% | +2.3% | 12,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Purchase | 1,200 @ $44.65 | $54K | ownership Δ n/a | +12.4% | +2.3% | 1,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Purchase | 86 @ $44.33 | $4K | +7.2% of holding | +12.4% | +2.3% | 1,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 5,384 @ $72.97 | $393K | −100.0% of holding | −36.4% | −45.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 4,616 @ $71.99 | $332K | −46.2% of holding | −36.4% | −45.0% | 5,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $66.17 | $662K | −50.0% of holding | +9.8% | −44.7% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 108,538 @ $66.15 | $7.2M | −25.6% of holding | +9.6% | −40.8% | 315,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 74,214 @ $66.14 | $4.9M | −37.8% of holding | +9.6% | −40.8% | 122,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 9,300 @ $66.82 | $621K | −2.9% of holding | +9.6% | −40.8% | 306,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $61.70 | $617K | −33.3% of holding | +3.8% | −33.1% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 55,444 @ $62.18 | $3.4M | −78.8% of holding | +1.1% | −23.4% | 14,958 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 14,958 @ $62.75 | $939K | −100.0% of holding | +1.1% | −23.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 57,798 @ $62.70 | $3.6M | −43.1% of holding | +3.2% | −22.6% | 76,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 6,586 @ $61.73 | $407K | −4.7% of holding | +3.2% | −22.6% | 134,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 6,020 @ $63.17 | $380K | −7.9% of holding | +3.2% | −22.6% | 70,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 70,204 @ $61.41 | $4.3M | −33.2% of holding | +7.2% | −18.9% | 141,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Sale | 200 @ $62.07 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +7.2% | −18.9% | 140,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $64.34 | $643K | −25.0% of holding | −1.6% | −24.5% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 8,589 @ $64.62 | $555K | −17.2% of holding | −5.0% | −25.7% | 41,411 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 1,411 @ $65.18 | $92K | −3.4% of holding | −5.0% | −25.7% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Park David Y | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $63.26 | $63K | −4.3% of holding | −0.5% | −29.5% | 22,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $61.44 | $614K | −16.7% of holding | +3.4% | −32.1% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $61.28 | $613K | −14.3% of holding | −1.5% | +9.9% | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-10 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.29 | $603K | −12.5% of holding | −4.7% | +8.3% | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 67,718 @ $56.54 | $3.8M | −13.8% of holding | +2.2% | +4.1% | 423,864 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 199,641 @ $59.92 | $12.0M | −28.9% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 491,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 51,377 @ $59.90 | $3.1M | −20.7% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 196,423 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Ment Jason P | officer | Sale | 34,690 @ $60.14 | $2.1M | −38.6% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 55,073 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 27,697 @ $60.06 | $1.7M | −25.7% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | Ment Jason P | officer | Sale | 20,318 @ $61.65 | $1.3M | −36.9% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 34,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | Ment Jason P | officer | Sale | 600 @ $62.02 | $37K | −1.7% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 34,155 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | McCabe Michael I | director | Sale | 100 @ $60.46 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −10.7% | −10.0% | 491,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 1,403 @ $60.01 | $84K | −1.3% of holding | −10.6% | −9.7% | 107,697 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Ment Jason P | officer | Sale | 900 @ $60.00 | $54K | −1.0% of holding | −10.6% | −9.7% | 89,763 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 900 @ $60.01 | $54K | −0.8% of holding | −10.1% | −9.8% | 109,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Ment Jason P | officer | Sale | 800 @ $60.02 | $48K | −0.9% of holding | −10.1% | −9.8% | 90,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 6,814 @ $61.00 | $416K | −5.7% of holding | −3.6% | −6.6% | 113,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 2,755 @ $62.27 | $172K | −2.4% of holding | −3.6% | −6.6% | 110,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Hart Scott W | director | Sale | 431 @ $62.79 | $27K | −0.4% of holding | −3.6% | −6.6% | 110,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Keathley Anthony | officer | Sale | 538 @ $63.00 | $34K | −28.0% of holding | −4.4% | −10.4% | 1,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Hoffmeister David F | director | Award / grant | 5,616 | 19,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Brown Valerie Gay | director | Award / grant | 5,518 | 12,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Raymond Anne L | director | Award / grant | 5,124 | 32,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Award / grant | 4,828 | 17,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Disposition | 200,000 | 3,016,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 3,016,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 3,016,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 64 | 50,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 64 | 50,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Keck Thomas | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 21,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Hart Scott W | director | Award / grant | 27,722 | 78,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 18,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Keck Thomas | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 21,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Keathley Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 1,612 | 3,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 9,814 | 28,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 22,178 | 50,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Ment Jason P | officer | Award / grant | 15,525 | 49,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 9,814 | 28,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 22,178 | 50,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Hart Scott W | director | Award / grant | 27,722 | 78,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 18,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Ment Jason P | officer | Award / grant | 15,525 | 49,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Keathley Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 1,612 | 3,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | McCabe Michael I | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 313,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | McCabe Michael I | director | Award / grant | 7,152 | 313,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Park David Y | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,480 | 18,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Keathley Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 296 | 1,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Park David Y | officer | Award / grant | 109 | 22,129 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Disposition | 200,000 | 3,216,601 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 30,623 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 2,520,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 211,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 211,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fernandez Jose A | director | Conversion | 200,000 | 3,216,601 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 2,520,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 30,623 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 2,520,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Keck Thomas | director | Gift | 30,623 | 30,623 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.