Issued 2026-09-16 at $209.90 · now $209.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STE has typically landed between $189.01 and $234.19 — a range of −10.0% to +11.6% from the issuance price $209.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($209.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $209.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $209.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $210.11 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $200.11–$220.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $189.01–$234.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −35.7% | −35.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −31.1% | −31.1% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −30.2% | −30.2% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +40.0% | +0.0% | +46.1% |
| 2008-07-07 | +31.2% | +0.0% | +31.2% |
| 2020-03-19 | +29.9% | −11.1% | +29.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$256.19
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$217.60
- Analyst target · range $269.00–$270.00$269.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$209.90
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Sale | 4,058 @ $235.78 | $957K | −14.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,305 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Sale | 1,419 @ $209.28 | $297K | −3.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 1,374 @ $212.00 | $291K | −2.1% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,647 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 3,054 @ $214.64 | $656K | −4.5% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Breeden Richard C | director | Sale | 1,481 @ $209.51 | $310K | −3.7% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | FELDMANN CYNTHIA L | director | Sale | 3,098 @ $237.21 | $735K | −81.5% of holding | −4.7% | −19.0% | 705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Madsen Julia | officer | Sale | 2,872 @ $262.00 | $752K | −21.1% of holding | −7.7% | −33.5% | 10,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Madsen Julia | officer | Sale | 2,136 @ $262.00 | $560K | −16.6% of holding | −7.7% | −33.5% | 10,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Sale | 3,324 @ $257.43 | $856K | −31.0% of holding | −4.6% | −27.5% | 7,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $257.76 | $387K | −20.8% of holding | −4.6% | −27.5% | 5,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Sale | 212 @ $258.03 | $55K | −2.9% of holding | −4.6% | −27.5% | 7,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $265.14 | $4.0M | −30.8% of holding | −6.0% | −28.8% | 33,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 159 @ $241.82 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −0.0% | −7.2% | 51,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Sale | 3,204 @ $249.24 | $799K | −30.7% of holding | −4.3% | −7.4% | 7,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Burton Karen L | officer | Sale | 7,900 @ $241.73 | $1.9M | −56.9% of holding | −1.4% | −7.7% | 5,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Sale | 4,110 @ $241.96 | $994K | −15.5% of holding | −1.4% | −7.7% | 22,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | FELDMANN CYNTHIA L | director | Sale | 3,495 @ $241.56 | $844K | −83.2% of holding | −1.4% | −7.7% | 705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Sale | 1,648 @ $241.61 | $398K | −4.7% of holding | −10.5% | −10.0% | 33,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Sale | 330 @ $240.63 | $79K | −0.9% of holding | −10.5% | −10.0% | 35,408 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 7,520 @ $241.85 | $1.8M | −10.9% of holding | −9.2% | −8.1% | 61,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 5,126 @ $243.49 | $1.2M | −9.1% of holding | −9.2% | −8.1% | 51,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Sale | 4,980 @ $242.67 | $1.2M | −8.1% of holding | −9.2% | −8.1% | 56,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Majors Cary L | officer | Sale | 8,247 @ $249.73 | $2.1M | −34.1% of holding | −6.2% | −8.6% | 15,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Majors Cary L | officer | Sale | 4,581 @ $250.71 | $1.1M | −28.7% of holding | −6.2% | −8.6% | 11,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
168 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Option exercise | 4,058 | 28,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Option exercise | 4,058 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Alegria Esther M. | director | Award / grant | 1,506 | 1,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Award / grant | 1,229 | 8,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 1,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Shapiro Louis | director | Award / grant | 1,025 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Shah Nirav R | director | Award / grant | 512 | 7,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Shah Nirav R | director | Award / grant | 1,506 | 1,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Martin Paul Edward | director | Award / grant | 512 | 5,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Martin Paul Edward | director | Award / grant | 1,506 | 1,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | HOLLAND CHRISTOPHER S | director | Award / grant | 1,025 | 5,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | FELDMANN CYNTHIA L | director | Award / grant | 512 | 8,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | FELDMANN CYNTHIA L | director | Award / grant | 1,506 | 1,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Boulud Pierre | director | Award / grant | 1,025 | 1,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Alegria Esther M. | director | Award / grant | 512 | 3,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Withheld for tax | 1,837 | 24,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Option exercise | 3,781 | 26,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sohi Mohsen | director | Option exercise | 3,781 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,889 | 68,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Fraser Mary Clare | officer | Withheld for tax | 600 | 13,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 401 | 36,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Madsen Julia | officer | Withheld for tax | 195 | 12,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Kohler Kenneth E | officer | Withheld for tax | 150 | 11,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Burton Karen L | officer | Withheld for tax | 90 | 13,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Withheld for tax | 65 | 6,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Withheld for tax | 2,619 | 69,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 365 | 37,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Fraser Mary Clare | officer | Withheld for tax | 311 | 14,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Madsen Julia | officer | Withheld for tax | 239 | 12,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Burton Karen L | officer | Withheld for tax | 190 | 13,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kohler Kenneth E | officer | Withheld for tax | 184 | 11,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Tamaro Renato | officer | Withheld for tax | 64 | 6,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Breeden Richard C | director | Option exercise | 3,781 | 40,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Carestio Daniel A | director | Withheld for tax | 995 | 72,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fraser Mary Clare | officer | Withheld for tax | 591 | 14,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | McGowan Lindsey | officer | Withheld for tax | 329 | 5,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Zangerle John Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 247 | 37,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Madsen Julia | officer | Withheld for tax | 127 | 12,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Majors Cary L | officer | Withheld for tax | 67 | 17,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kohler Kenneth E | officer | Withheld for tax | 66 | 11,666 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-11 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-16 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.