Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.41 · now $22.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STAA has typically landed between $17.30 and $28.84 — a range of −22.8% to +28.7% from the issuance price $22.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.42 (-4.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.27–$23.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.3–$28.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −55.1% | −55.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-19 | −52.9% | −55.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-05-28 | +168.2% | +0.0% | +168.2% |
| 2009-05-29 | +143.4% | −2.0% | +143.4% |
| 2009-06-02 | +140.2% | +0.0% | +149.5% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
35%
−2.5%
n=20
Feb
45%
−3.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+7.4%
n=20
May
55%
+3.8%
n=20
Jun
65%
+12.7%
n=20
Jul
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Aug
60%
+11.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
−2.0%
n=20
Nov
40%
−2.8%
n=20
Dec
30%
−1.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 316,017 @ $18.61 | $5.9M | +2.0% of holding | +24.5% | +7.0% | 16,123,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +24.5% | +7.0% | 16,123,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 299,432 @ $18.12 | $5.4M | +1.9% of holding | +42.7% | +7.9% | 15,807,825 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +42.7% | +7.9% | 15,807,825 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 54,764 @ $17.52 | $960K | +0.4% of holding | +49.0% | +20.0% | 15,508,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +49.0% | +20.0% | 15,508,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 27,485 @ $22.05 | $606K | +0.2% of holding | −21.5% | +14.7% | 15,453,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −21.5% | +14.7% | 15,453,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,240 @ $21.94 | $71K | +0.0% of holding | −23.3% | +14.2% | 15,426,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −23.3% | +14.2% | 15,426,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 66,467 @ $22.00 | $1.5M | +0.4% of holding | −20.9% | +15.0% | 15,422,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −20.9% | +15.0% | 15,422,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 186,946 @ $21.01 | $3.9M | +1.2% of holding | −21.4% | +16.2% | 15,206,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $22.38 | $3.4M | +1.0% of holding | −21.4% | +16.2% | 15,356,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −21.4% | +16.2% | 15,356,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −21.4% | +16.2% | 15,206,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 797,486 @ $27.86 | $22.2M | +5.6% of holding | −19.2% | −2.4% | 15,019,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −19.2% | −2.4% | 15,019,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 393,382 @ $27.14 | $10.7M | +2.8% of holding | −16.8% | +6.2% | 14,222,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −16.8% | +6.2% | 14,222,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 309,132 @ $26.42 | $8.2M | +2.3% of holding | −8.0% | +9.6% | 13,828,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −8.0% | +9.6% | 13,828,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 900 @ $15.18 | $14K | +0.0% of holding | +19.1% | +46.2% | 13,519,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +19.1% | +46.2% | 13,519,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-09 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 8,200 @ $15.08 | $124K | +0.1% of holding | +19.5% | +41.9% | 13,518,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +19.5% | +41.9% | 13,518,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 166,527 @ $15.28 | $2.5M | +1.2% of holding | +15.6% | +39.3% | 13,498,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 11,600 @ $15.95 | $185K | +0.1% of holding | +15.6% | +39.3% | 13,510,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +15.6% | +39.3% | 13,498,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +15.6% | +39.3% | 13,510,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 126,465 @ $15.58 | $2.0M | +1.0% of holding | +9.2% | +32.1% | 13,320,675 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 11,589 @ $15.98 | $185K | +0.1% of holding | +9.2% | +32.1% | 13,332,264 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +9.2% | +32.1% | 13,332,264 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-07 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +9.2% | +32.1% | 13,320,675 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-04 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 492,631 @ $15.90 | $7.8M | +3.9% of holding | +6.5% | +34.9% | 13,189,210 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.46 | $82K | +0.0% of holding | +6.5% | +34.9% | 13,194,210 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +6.5% | +34.9% | 13,194,210 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +6.5% | +34.9% | 13,189,210 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 209,535 @ $16.97 | $3.6M | +1.7% of holding | +4.1% | +30.6% | 12,696,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +4.1% | +30.6% | 12,696,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 31,780 @ $17.43 | $554K | +0.3% of holding | +7.7% | +36.6% | 12,487,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +7.7% | +36.6% | 12,487,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 22,189 @ $17.46 | $387K | +0.2% of holding | +4.4% | +32.6% | 12,455,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +4.4% | +32.6% | 12,455,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 8,131 @ $17.47 | $142K | +0.1% of holding | +4.5% | +30.8% | 12,433,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-28 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +4.5% | +30.8% | 12,433,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-27 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,620 @ $17.48 | $63K | +0.0% of holding | +6.2% | +35.2% | 12,424,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +6.2% | +35.2% | 12,424,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 101,633 @ $17.50 | $1.8M | +0.8% of holding | +5.8% | +35.9% | 12,421,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +5.8% | +35.9% | 12,421,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 34,296 @ $17.44 | $598K | +0.3% of holding | +7.4% | +37.8% | 12,319,691 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-25 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +7.4% | +37.8% | 12,319,691 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-21 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 102,400 @ $17.74 | $1.8M | +0.8% of holding | +3.4% | +32.7% | 12,285,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +3.4% | +32.7% | 12,285,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 108,720 @ $17.96 | $2.0M | +0.9% of holding | +1.1% | +33.6% | 12,182,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-20 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | +1.1% | +33.6% | 12,182,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-18 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 58,734 @ $17.41 | $1.0M | +0.5% of holding | −5.7% | +30.4% | 12,039,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 34,390 @ $17.76 | $611K | +0.3% of holding | −5.7% | +30.4% | 12,074,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −5.7% | +30.4% | 12,074,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BROADWOOD PARTNERS, L.P. | director | Purchase | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −5.7% | +30.4% | 12,039,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,730 | 97,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,797 | 40,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Withheld for tax | 2,662 | 38,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,865 | 95,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Option exercise | 1,100 | 41,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Withheld for tax | 559 | 40,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Award / grant | 22,493 | 22,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Award / grant | 40,471 | 40,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Award / grant | 37,962 | 37,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Award / grant | 131,830 | 131,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Award / grant | 123,659 | 123,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 3,666 | 97,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Option exercise | 5,499 | 43,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Option exercise | 5,499 | 5,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 5,233 | 41,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Michna Magda | officer | Option exercise | 1,100 | 1,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Award / grant | 4,975 | 4,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Award / grant | 8,952 | 8,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Award / grant | 29,159 | 29,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 7,331 | 93,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 3,666 | 93,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Foust Warren | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,576 | 86,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Withheld for tax | 10,576 | 36,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 20,787 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 20,787 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 20,787 | 46,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 20,787 | 46,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 20,787 | 97,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Foust Warren | officer | Option exercise | 20,787 | 97,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Withheld for tax | 6,480 | 26,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 13,955 | 27,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 13,955 | 32,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | ANDREWS DEBORAH J | director | Option exercise | 13,955 | 32,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bradsher Neal C | director | Award / grant | 11,145 | 11,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Option exercise | 5,341 | 9,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Option exercise | 5,341 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Award / grant | 4,458 | 4,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Butcher Arthur C | director | Award / grant | 3,709 | 3,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jiang Wei | director | Option exercise | 10,683 | 77,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jiang Wei | director | Option exercise | 10,683 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.