STSensata Technologies Holding plcas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.91 · now $41.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ST has typically landed between $36.56 and $48.96 — a range of −12.8% to +16.8% from the issuance price $41.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,122 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-03-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$36.56worst · -12.8%$48.96best · +16.8%
  • now $41.91 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.45 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.64–$44.25
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.56–$48.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,122 windows spanning 2010-03-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−51.4%−51.4%+2.2%
2020-02-14−47.3%−47.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−47.0%−51.1%+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-11+44.2%−3.6%+44.2%
2025-04-21+43.0%+0.0%+49.6%
2025-04-16+42.4%−1.5%+47.3%

4,122 overlapping windows · 2010-03-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=16
Feb
56%
+1.6%
n=16
Mar
56%
−1.7%
n=16
Apr
41%
+1.0%
n=17
May
53%
+1.4%
n=17
Jun
41%
−0.1%
n=17
Jul
65%
+2.3%
n=17
Aug
41%
−1.4%
n=17
Sep
47%
−1.4%
n=17
Oct
63%
+1.6%
n=16
Nov
81%
+3.9%
n=16
Dec
69%
+1.5%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$54$282026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $137K — Caljouw Lynne J2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $300K — Stott David K2026-04-07: 1 insider sale, $101K — Caljouw Lynne J2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $86K — Caljouw Lynne J2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $502K — von Schuckmann Stephan2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $94K — Caljouw Lynne J2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Mirshekari Ali John2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Mirshekari Ali John2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Mirshekari Ali John2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $26K — Stott David K2025-10-30: 1 insider sale, $104K — Caljouw Lynne J2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $82K — Caljouw Lynne J2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $82K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $104K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $7.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $94K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $502K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $86K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $101K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $300K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $137K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Stott David K — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2026-04-07, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector von Schuckmann Stephan — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Mirshekari Ali John — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same daydirector Mirshekari Ali John — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mirshekari Ali John — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Stott David K — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Caljouw Lynne J — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale2,723 @ $50.35$137K−3.9% of holding−13.4%not yet — horizon still open66,405Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20Stott David KofficerSale6,335 @ $47.40$300K−13.8% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open39,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-07Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale2,913 @ $34.71$101K−3.8% of holding+19.4%not yet — horizon still open72,842Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale2,480 @ $34.50$86K−3.9% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open61,560Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06von Schuckmann StephandirectorPurchase15,150 @ $33.11$502K+14.6% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open118,938Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale2,496 @ $37.53$94K−3.8% of holding−3.9%+1.4%64,040Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-21Mirshekari Ali JohndirectorSale33,933 @ $29.53$1.0M−100.0% of holding+6.7%+53.6%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20Mirshekari Ali JohndirectorSale108,438 @ $28.75$3.1M−76.2% of holding+13.9%+62.0%33,933Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Mirshekari Ali JohndirectorSale125,939 @ $28.83$3.6M−46.9% of holding+14.5%+56.4%142,371Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Stott David KofficerSale839 @ $30.80$26K−2.3% of holding+14.1%+47.1%35,444Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-30Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale3,207 @ $32.45$104K−4.6% of holding+0.3%+21.4%66,536Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09Caljouw Lynne JofficerSale2,576 @ $31.98$82K−3.2% of holding−4.2%+7.8%77,185Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23TEICH ANDREW CdirectorPurchase9,925 @ $25.19$250K+31.8% of holding+10.6%+6.5%41,117Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Hertzke Patrick NortonofficerWithheld for tax3,07439,856Form 4
2026-07-21Lynch Andrew CharlesofficerWithheld for tax1,38846,716Form 4
2026-07-01Lynch Andrew CharlesofficerWithheld for tax90348,104Form 4
2026-07-01Lynch Andrew CharlesofficerAward / grant1,36449,007Form 4
2026-06-09Eyler PhillipdirectorWithheld for tax54713,444Form 4
2026-06-09Absmeier John PdirectorWithheld for tax54731,174Form 4
2026-06-09Sullivan Martha N.directorWithheld for tax508373,209Form 4
2026-06-09TEICH ANDREW CdirectorWithheld for tax50650,219Form 4
2026-06-09Bolsinger Lorraine AdirectorWithheld for tax49528,295Form 4
2026-06-09Mirshekari Ali JohndirectorWithheld for tax43911,127Form 4
2026-06-09Sonnenberg Steven AlandirectorWithheld for tax43324,572Form 4
2026-06-09Skidmore Constance EllendirectorWithheld for tax41836,930Form 4
2026-06-09ZIDE STEPHEN MdirectorWithheld for tax28543,634Form 4
2026-06-09Vijayvargiya Jugal K.directorWithheld for tax24917,105Form 4
2026-06-09Black DanieldirectorWithheld for tax20824,675Form 4
2026-06-09Bolsinger Lorraine AdirectorAward / grant3,82728,790Form 4
2026-06-09Absmeier John PdirectorAward / grant3,82731,721Form 4
2026-06-09Sullivan Martha N.directorAward / grant3,827373,717Form 4
2026-06-09Vijayvargiya Jugal K.directorAward / grant3,82717,354Form 4
2026-06-09Skidmore Constance EllendirectorAward / grant3,82737,348Form 4
2026-06-09Black DanieldirectorAward / grant3,82724,883Form 4
2026-06-09Schupmann LauriedirectorAward / grant3,8273,827Form 4
2026-06-09ZIDE STEPHEN MdirectorAward / grant3,82743,919Form 4
2026-06-09TEICH ANDREW CdirectorAward / grant3,82750,725Form 4
2026-06-09Eyler PhillipdirectorAward / grant3,82713,991Form 4
2026-06-01SIEDEL RICHARD W. JR.officerWithheld for tax37416,635Form 4
2026-05-06Caljouw Lynne JofficerDisposition3,71469,128Form 4
2026-05-06Caljouw Lynne JofficerDisposition3,22672,842Form 4
2026-05-06Caljouw Lynne JofficerOption exercise3,22676,068Form 4
2026-05-06Caljouw Lynne JofficerOption exercise3,2260Form 4
2026-04-01Caljouw Lynne JofficerWithheld for tax9,79375,755Form 4
2026-04-01Wilkie Brian JohnofficerWithheld for tax8,16975,488Form 4
2026-04-01Stott David KofficerWithheld for tax5,12046,022Form 4
2026-04-01Lynch Andrew CharlesofficerWithheld for tax3,34147,643Form 4
2026-04-01McIntosh Alice MartinsofficerWithheld for tax2,02427,983Form 4
2026-04-01Chen JackieofficerWithheld for tax1,40821,645Form 4
2026-04-01SIEDEL RICHARD W. JR.officerWithheld for tax70917,009Form 4
2026-04-01von Schuckmann StephandirectorAward / grant111,285230,223Form 4
2026-04-01McIntosh Alice MartinsofficerAward / grant12,15227,554Form 4
2026-04-01McIntosh Alice MartinsofficerAward / grant2,45330,007Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-20$50–100K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-11$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-12$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-07$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-05-01$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-11-102025-10-10$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.