Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.93 · now $16.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SRZN has typically landed between $11.18 and $24.44 — a range of −34.0% to +44.4% from the issuance price $16.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,406 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SRZN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.81 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.95–$19.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.18–$24.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,406 windows spanning 2021-01-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-11-11 | −77.2% | −77.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-08 | −76.5% | −76.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-10 | −75.8% | −75.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-12 | +113.3% | −4.5% | +113.3% |
| 2025-11-10 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +103.0% |
| 2025-11-11 | +96.5% | +0.0% | +97.6% |
1,406 overlapping windows · 2021-01-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−16.2%
n=5
Feb
67%
+25.7%
n=6
Mar
50%
−3.0%
n=6
Apr
50%
−5.4%
n=6
May
50%
−7.1%
n=6
Jun
50%
+2.1%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.5%
n=6
Aug
50%
+0.5%
n=6
Sep
33%
−7.6%
n=6
Oct
60%
+2.2%
n=5
Nov
60%
−1.9%
n=5
Dec
60%
+10.5%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 162,500 @ $21.25 | $3.5M | −22.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 162,500 @ $21.25 | $3.5M | −22.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Parker Craig C | director | Sale | 4,524 @ $33.33 | $151K | −21.5% of holding | −28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Williams Charles O | officer | Sale | 2,036 @ $33.33 | $68K | −10.9% of holding | −28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Li Yang | officer | Sale | 1,584 @ $33.33 | $53K | −8.4% of holding | −28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,329 @ $24.69 | $1.3M | +7.8% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 736,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,329 @ $24.69 | $1.3M | +7.8% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 736,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,612 @ $24.90 | $190K | +1.1% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 683,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,611 @ $24.90 | $190K | +1.1% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 683,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 595 @ $24.99 | $15K | +0.1% of holding | +20.7% | −44.1% | 675,610 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 595 @ $24.99 | $15K | +0.1% of holding | +20.7% | −44.1% | 675,613 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,717 @ $24.88 | $441K | +2.7% of holding | +21.2% | −44.7% | 675,018 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,716 @ $24.88 | $441K | +2.7% of holding | +21.2% | −44.7% | 675,015 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,187 @ $24.99 | $155K | +1.0% of holding | +12.0% | −42.0% | 657,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,187 @ $24.99 | $155K | +1.0% of holding | +12.0% | −42.0% | 657,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 547 @ $23.86 | $13K | +0.1% of holding | +4.4% | −18.1% | 651,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 546 @ $23.86 | $13K | +0.1% of holding | +4.4% | −18.1% | 651,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,882 @ $23.57 | $209K | +1.4% of holding | +6.8% | −16.5% | 650,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,881 @ $23.57 | $209K | +1.4% of holding | +6.8% | −16.5% | 650,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,178 @ $21.94 | $48K | +0.3% of holding | +25.1% | −17.1% | 641,685 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,177 @ $21.94 | $48K | +0.3% of holding | +25.1% | −17.1% | 641,682 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 366 @ $21.38 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | +30.6% | −12.0% | 639,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 365 @ $21.38 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | +30.6% | −12.0% | 639,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,136 @ $21.39 | $46K | +0.3% of holding | +26.3% | −9.0% | 639,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | TCG Crossover GP II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,135 @ $21.39 | $46K | +0.3% of holding | +26.3% | −9.0% | 639,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 9,568 @ $19.60 | $188K | +1.0% of holding | +48.8% | +9.9% | 1,016,658 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,568 @ $19.60 | $188K | +1.0% of holding | +48.8% | +9.9% | 1,016,658 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 8,484 @ $19.60 | $166K | +1.0% of holding | +48.8% | +9.9% | 900,292 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,484 @ $19.60 | $166K | +1.0% of holding | +48.8% | +9.9% | 900,292 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 1,358 @ $20.00 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | +26.2% | +6.2% | 1,007,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,358 @ $20.00 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | +26.2% | +6.2% | 1,007,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 1,204 @ $20.00 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | +26.2% | +6.2% | 891,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,204 @ $20.00 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | +26.2% | +6.2% | 891,808 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,303 @ $19.89 | $125K | +0.6% of holding | +24.0% | +3.0% | 1,005,732 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 6,303 @ $19.89 | $125K | +0.6% of holding | +24.0% | +3.0% | 1,005,732 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,590 @ $19.89 | $111K | +0.6% of holding | +24.0% | +3.0% | 890,604 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 5,590 @ $19.89 | $111K | +0.6% of holding | +24.0% | +3.0% | 890,604 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 2,927 @ $19.99 | $59K | +0.3% of holding | +23.6% | +1.6% | 999,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,927 @ $19.99 | $59K | +0.3% of holding | +23.6% | +1.6% | 999,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 2,596 @ $19.99 | $52K | +0.3% of holding | +23.6% | +1.6% | 885,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,596 @ $19.99 | $52K | +0.3% of holding | +23.6% | +1.6% | 885,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 6,609 @ $19.80 | $131K | +0.7% of holding | +22.1% | −8.3% | 996,502 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,609 @ $19.80 | $131K | +0.7% of holding | +22.1% | −8.3% | 996,502 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 5,861 @ $19.80 | $116K | +0.7% of holding | +22.1% | −8.3% | 882,418 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,861 @ $19.80 | $116K | +0.7% of holding | +22.1% | −8.3% | 882,418 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 8,003 @ $19.89 | $159K | +0.8% of holding | +10.1% | +10.2% | 989,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,003 @ $19.89 | $159K | +0.8% of holding | +10.1% | +10.2% | 989,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,097 @ $19.89 | $141K | +0.8% of holding | +10.1% | +10.2% | 876,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 7,097 @ $19.89 | $141K | +0.8% of holding | +10.1% | +10.2% | 876,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Williams Charles O | officer | Sale | 1,566 @ $19.87 | $31K | −10.8% of holding | +24.0% | +10.8% | 12,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Li Yang | officer | Sale | 1,118 @ $19.87 | $22K | −6.5% of holding | +24.0% | +10.8% | 16,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 16,381 @ $19.54 | $320K | +1.7% of holding | −3.3% | −3.0% | 981,890 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,381 @ $19.54 | $320K | +1.7% of holding | −3.3% | −3.0% | 981,890 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,503 @ $19.54 | $283K | +1.7% of holding | −3.3% | −3.0% | 869,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 14,503 @ $19.54 | $283K | +1.7% of holding | −3.3% | −3.0% | 869,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,791 @ $17.35 | $48K | +0.3% of holding | +6.5% | +4.9% | 965,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 2,791 @ $17.35 | $48K | +0.3% of holding | +6.5% | +4.9% | 965,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Purchase | 2,475 @ $17.35 | $43K | +0.3% of holding | +6.5% | +4.9% | 854,957 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,475 @ $17.35 | $43K | +0.3% of holding | +6.5% | +4.9% | 854,957 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | COLUMN GROUP III GP, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 167,307 @ $12.65 | $2.1M | +21.0% of holding | +77.1% | +115.9% | 962,718 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Li Yang | officer | Award / grant | 1,666 | 18,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Williams Charles O | officer | Award / grant | 1,666 | 18,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Parker Craig C | director | Award / grant | 1,622 | 18,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Maleki Andrew Pedrum | officer | Award / grant | 607 | 607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kutzkey Tim | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | WOODHOUSE DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rothenberg Mace | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Haak-Frendscho Mary | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BJERKHOLT ERIC | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Berkenblit Anna | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | CHAI CHRISTOPHER Y | director | Award / grant | 5,550 | 5,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Parker Craig C | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 5,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 4,375 | 4,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 18,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 4,375 | 18,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Parker Craig C | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 21,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 18,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Parker Craig C | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 21,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 4,375 | 18,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Li Yang | officer | Gift | 1,666 | 14,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Williams Charles O | officer | Award / grant | 102,900 | 102,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Parker Craig C | director | Award / grant | 242,200 | 242,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Li Yang | officer | Award / grant | 100,950 | 100,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Williams Charles O | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 17,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 14,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Williams Charles O | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 14,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Li Yang | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 17,209 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Li Yang | officer | Award / grant | 1,666 | 14,709 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Williams Charles O | officer | Award / grant | 1,666 | 11,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Parker Craig C | director | Award / grant | 1,553 | 8,577 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Maleki Andrew Pedrum | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Parker Craig C | director | Award / grant | 400 | 7,024 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Li Yang | officer | Award / grant | 400 | 13,043 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Williams Charles O | officer | Award / grant | 400 | 9,382 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Berkenblit Anna | director | Award / grant | 1,333 | 1,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | WOODHOUSE DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 1,333 | 1,333 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.