Issued 2026-09-25 at $18.67 · now $18.67 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SRPT has typically landed between $13.04 and $24.15 — a range of −30.2% to +29.4% from the issuance price $18.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,005 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($18.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SRPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $18.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.49 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.68–$20.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.04–$24.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,005 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2013-10-14 | −71.4% | −71.4% | +4.7% |
| 2016-01-07 | −70.3% | −70.3% | +0.0% |
| 2015-12-28 | −69.9% | −69.9% | +4.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-18 | +193.8% | +0.0% | +193.8% |
| 2012-07-23 | +191.3% | +0.0% | +193.6% |
| 2012-07-20 | +181.4% | −4.2% | +181.4% |
5,005 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Compare Safety and Efficacy of High Doses of Eteplirsen in Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) (MIS51ON) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of SRP-1003 in Participants With Type 1 Myotonic Dystrophy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-05-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Gene Transfer Therapy Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Delandistrogene Moxeparvovec (SRP-9001) in Non-Ambulatory and Ambulatory Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of SRP-1001 in Adult and Adolescent Participants With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy Type 1 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2033-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Long-term Follow-up Study of Participants Who Received Delandistrogene Moxeparvovec (SRP-9001) in a Previous Clinical Study (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−1.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Mar
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Apr
30%
−1.2%
n=20
May
60%
+9.6%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+9.5%
n=20
Aug
65%
+5.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
+7.7%
n=20
Oct
45%
−6.0%
n=20
Nov
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Dec
60%
−0.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Mayo Stephen | director | Sale | 7,239 @ $17.02 | $123K | −80.4% of holding | +24.6% | +4.7% | 1,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Sale | 13,187 @ $22.31 | $294K | −6.4% of holding | −7.5% | −32.3% | 193,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Nicaise Claude | director | Sale | 2,491 @ $99.64 | $248K | −8.2% of holding | −43.7% | −100.4% | 27,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Sale | 10,500 @ $124.84 | $1.3M | −31.5% of holding | −2.5% | −82.2% | 22,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Boor Kathryn Jean | director | Sale | 1,636 @ $125.55 | $205K | −21.8% of holding | +1.2% | −69.1% | 5,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-30 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Sale | 5,985 @ $137.36 | $822K | −15.0% of holding | −11.1% | −24.8% | 33,946 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-16 | Chambers Michael Andrew | director | Purchase | 18,284 @ $134.06 | $2.5M | +7.0% of holding | −7.4% | −31.0% | 278,386 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-16 | Chambers Michael Andrew | director | Purchase | 13,106 @ $133.07 | $1.7M | +5.3% of holding | −7.4% | −31.0% | 260,102 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-16 | Chambers Michael Andrew | director | Purchase | 5,648 @ $134.66 | $761K | +2.0% of holding | −7.4% | −31.0% | 284,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 17,581 @ $162.65 | $2.9M | −42.8% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 23,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 7,644 @ $158.07 | $1.2M | −13.6% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 48,442 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 4,168 @ $161.82 | $674K | −9.2% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 41,099 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 3,898 @ $163.23 | $636K | −18.3% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 17,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 3,840 @ $163.53 | $628K | −16.3% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 19,678 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 2,549 @ $164.52 | $419K | −13.0% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 17,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $159.14 | $350K | −4.5% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 46,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-25 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 975 @ $160.31 | $156K | −2.1% of holding | −5.5% | −33.5% | 45,267 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-24 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 5,580 @ $162.31 | $906K | −19.2% of holding | −10.6% | −37.0% | 23,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 1,055 @ $163.83 | $173K | −4.5% of holding | −10.6% | −37.0% | 22,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 700 @ $166.10 | $116K | −3.2% of holding | −10.6% | −37.0% | 21,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 300 @ $164.61 | $49K | −1.3% of holding | −10.6% | −37.0% | 22,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 224 @ $167.13 | $37K | −1.0% of holding | −10.6% | −37.0% | 21,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-02 | Murray Dallan | officer | Sale | 3,635 @ $140.00 | $509K | −16.7% of holding | −9.4% | −16.8% | 18,125 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-11 | Boor Kathryn Jean | director | Sale | 761 @ $122.93 | $94K | −9.2% of holding | +3.0% | −3.6% | 7,516 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-08 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Sale | 11,745 @ $123.10 | $1.4M | −33.9% of holding | +0.3% | −4.8% | 22,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-08 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Sale | 3,155 @ $123.85 | $391K | −8.3% of holding | +0.3% | −4.8% | 34,685 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-08 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Sale | 100 @ $122.39 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | +0.3% | −4.8% | 22,840 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-05 | Mayo Stephen | director | Sale | 3,135 @ $122.96 | $385K | −32.1% of holding | +0.9% | +0.4% | 6,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | Brown Ryan Edward | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $125.34 | $251K | −5.9% of holding | −2.8% | −5.1% | 31,827 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 1,543 @ $128.58 | $198K | −5.4% of holding | −2.8% | −5.1% | 27,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $128.30 | $154K | −3.0% of holding | −2.8% | −5.1% | 39,114 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | Arif Bilal | officer | Sale | 457 @ $129.71 | $59K | −1.7% of holding | −2.8% | −5.1% | 26,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
268 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,799 | 177,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Rothfuss Cristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,025 | 115,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,423 | 203,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Wong Ryan Ho-Yan | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,272 | 121,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | SEVERINO MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 2,224,342 | 2,224,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | SEVERINO MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 756,104 | 756,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | SEVERINO MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 756,104 | 756,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Barry Richard | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 2,983,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Chambers Michael Andrew | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 27,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nicaise Claude | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 48,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | BEHRENS M KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 214,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | BEHRENS M KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 214,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 42,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mayo Stephen | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 18,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Boor Kathryn Jean | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 25,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wigzell Hans Lennart Rudolf | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 42,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Connelly Deirdre P | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 22,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Barry Richard | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 2,983,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Boor Kathryn Jean | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 25,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Chambers Michael Andrew | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 27,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Connelly Deirdre P | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 22,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mayo Stephen | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 18,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nicaise Claude | director | Award / grant | 16,875 | 48,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,097 | 201,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Rothfuss Cristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 974 | 137,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 948 | 225,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Wong Ryan Ho-Yan | officer | Withheld for tax | 256 | 135,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,036 | 203,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 895 | 226,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 583 | 203,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 504 | 227,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Rothfuss Cristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 484 | 138,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Rothfuss Cristin | officer | Withheld for tax | 346 | 138,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wong Ryan Ho-Yan | officer | Withheld for tax | 162 | 135,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wong Ryan Ho-Yan | officer | Withheld for tax | 113 | 135,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,718 | 228,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,301 | 205,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Estepan Ian Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 875 | 204,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Rodino-Klapac Louise | officer | Withheld for tax | 767 | 227,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wong Ryan Ho-Yan | officer | Withheld for tax | 450 | 135,595 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.