SRI · TickerCove

SRIStoneridge, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.08 · now $7.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SRI has typically landed between $5.40 and $9.13 — a range of −23.8% to +28.9% from the issuance price $7.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.08 · 53% of range

$4.72 low$9.17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.0%

typical move · IQR 19.6%

−23.8%worst (p90)+28.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.08 (+0.0%)
typical $7.01 (-1.0%)
middle 50% $6.32–$7.7
90% range $5.4–$9.13

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-12-31	−66.9%	−66.9%	+4.4%
2008-10-22	−66.4%	−66.4%	+2.4%
2009-01-02	−65.9%	−66.4%	+6.0%
3 best
2009-05-13	+101.3%	−10.5%	+101.3%
2009-05-15	+84.8%	+0.0%	+125.0%
2009-05-28	+83.8%	+0.0%	+83.8%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−3.2%

n=20

Feb

60%

+2.8%

n=20

Mar

60%

+2.6%

n=20

Apr

60%

+3.6%

n=20

May

60%

+4.8%

n=20

Jun

50%

+4.6%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.0%

n=20

Aug

50%

−3.7%

n=20

Sep

35%

−3.6%

n=20

Oct

50%

+0.0%

n=20

Nov

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Dec

60%

+4.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	Humphrey Scott Randall	officer	Purchase	6,000 @ $7.01	$42K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	6,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10	Noblet Natalia	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $7.31	$37K	ownership Δ n/a	+2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	5,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Sale	9,000 @ $7.55	$68K	−69.3% of holding	−2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	3,996	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12	LASKY WILLIAM M	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $7.46	$37K	+2.7% of holding	−9.1%	not yet — horizon still open	192,666	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-03	Kaplan Ira C.	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $7.54	$38K	+5.3% of holding	−4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	100,046	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer	Sale	969 @ $5.47	$5K	−2.6% of holding	−11.0%	+39.6%	36,117	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

112 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Noblet Natalia	director	Option exercise	12,264	17,264	Form 4
2026-09-09	Noblet Natalia	director	Option exercise	12,264	49,599	Form 4
2026-06-15	Humphrey Scott Randall	officer	Award / grant	40,053	40,053	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Withheld for tax	169,465	292,637	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Disposition	142,933	31,439	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Option exercise	430,663	462,102	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Disposition	193,799	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Option exercise	142,933	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Zizelman James	director	Option exercise	142,933	174,372	Form 4
2026-03-16	Noblet Natalia	director	Award / grant	27,279	61,863	Form 4
2026-03-16	Reinhardt Carsten J	director	Award / grant	23,478	62,887	Form 4
2026-03-16	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Award / grant	20,801	42,545	Form 4
2026-03-16	Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer	Award / grant	40,611	54,405	Form 4
2026-03-16	Rutt Sheila M	director	Award / grant	23,478	65,539	Form 4
2026-03-16	Sklarsky Frank S	director	Award / grant	23,478	75,357	Form 4
2026-03-16	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Award / grant	46,376	102,791	Form 4
2026-03-16	English Aron R.	director	Award / grant	23,478	23,478	Form 4
2026-03-16	Kaplan Ira C.	director	Award / grant	23,478	49,672	Form 4
2026-03-16	Korth Kim	director	Award / grant	23,478	131,021	Form 4
2026-03-16	LASKY WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	23,478	187,666	Form 4
2026-03-02	Zizelman James	director	Withheld for tax	7,619	31,439	Form 4
2026-03-02	Horvath Matthew R.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,946	18,994	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,224	17,244	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Withheld for tax	1,337	12,996	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,063	38,202	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer	Option exercise	3,148	13,794	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hartman Robert J. Jr.	officer	Option exercise	3,148	39,265	Form 4
2026-03-02	Horvath Matthew R.	officer	Option exercise	9,052	22,940	Form 4
2026-03-02	Horvath Matthew R.	officer	Option exercise	9,052	73,187	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Option exercise	4,961	14,333	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Option exercise	4,961	21,744	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Option exercise	7,396	20,468	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Option exercise	7,396	56,415	Form 4
2026-03-02	Zizelman James	director	Option exercise	19,363	39,058	Form 4
2026-03-02	Zizelman James	director	Option exercise	19,363	193,799	Form 4
2026-01-31	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Award / grant	45,029	45,029	Form 4
2026-01-31	Zizelman James	director	Award / grant	142,933	142,933	Form 4
2025-06-20	Benedict Susan C.	officer	Disposition	29,103	13,072	Form 4
2025-06-20	Horvath Matthew R.	officer	Disposition	29,103	13,888	Form 4
2025-06-20	Ferraiolo Caetano Roberto	officer	Disposition	14,551	9,372	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i