Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.95 · now $1.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SRG has typically landed between $1.44 and $2.31 — a range of −25.9% to +18.4% from the issuance price $1.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,795 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.91 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.76–$2.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.44–$2.31
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −82.9% | −82.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −81.0% | −82.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −80.3% | −80.3% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +162.5% | −17.6% | +162.5% |
| 2022-06-16 | +138.2% | −1.9% | +138.2% |
| 2022-06-17 | +138.2% | −0.6% | +141.4% |
2,795 overlapping windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | LAMPERT EDWARD S | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,864 @ $4.50 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | −10.7% | −36.6% | 13,420,298 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | LAMPERT EDWARD S | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.40 | $176K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | −41.6% | 13,444,162 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
4 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Olshan Andrea | director | Withheld for tax | 26,605 | 192,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Fernand Matthew E | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,074 | 66,029 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Dinenberg Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,772 | 44,321 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-18 | Dinenberg Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,350 | 49,093 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.