SRESempraUtilities · Diversified Utilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $81.70 · now $81.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SRE has typically landed between $74.56 and $90.15 — a range of −8.7% to +10.3% from the issuance price $81.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($81.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $81.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$74.56worst · -8.7%$90.15best · +10.3%
  • now $81.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $82.5 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.32–$85.67
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $74.56–$90.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−44.3%−44.3%+1.2%
2020-02-21−40.4%−44.1%+0.0%
2020-02-14−38.9%−44.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-16+38.5%+0.0%+48.8%
2020-03-23+32.3%+0.0%+39.7%
2009-03-05+24.5%−3.3%+24.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$60.8B
market cap
$3.13
EPS (TTM)
29.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$13.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$6.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr5.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.15
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $81.70$-204.05$141.86
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-180.19
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$70.66
  • Analyst target · range $101.00–$118.00$103.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$81.70

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Mar
95%
+3.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.9%
n=19
May
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
−0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$99$772026-06-17: 2 insider sales, $724K — Winn Caroline Ann …2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $233K — Ferrero Pablo2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $304K — DAY DIANA L2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $109K — BIRD JUSTIN CHRISTOPHER2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $147K — Wold Dyan Z.2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $93K — Kirk Jennifer M2026-03-11: 2 insider purchases, $484K — MARK RICHARD J, WARNER CYNTHIA J2026-03-09: 3 insider sales, $451K — Sedgwick Karen L …2026-01-05: 3 insider sales, $2.0M — Martin Jeffrey W …2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $2.7M — Martin Jeffrey W …2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $698K — Sedgwick Karen L2025-11-19: 2 insider sales, $184K — Wold Dyan Z., Winn Caroline Ann2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $504K — Winn Caroline Ann2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $400K — Larroque Alexander Lisa2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Sagara Kevin C.2025-09-15: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Sagara Kevin C. …2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $419K — Winn Caroline Ann2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $419K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $3.7M2025-11: 5 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-01: 5 open-market sales, $4.7M2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $577K2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $598K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $109K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $537K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $724K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Winn Caroline Ann — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed same daydirector Winn Caroline Ann — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed same daydirector Ferrero Pablo — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DAY DIANA L — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed same dayofficer BIRD JUSTIN CHRISTOPHER — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same dayofficer Wold Dyan Z. — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same daydirector Kirk Jennifer M — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MARK RICHARD J — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed same daydirector WARNER CYNTHIA J — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed same dayofficer Sedgwick Karen L — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same dayofficer Sedgwick Karen L — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same dayofficer Sedgwick Karen L — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector Martin Jeffrey W — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed same daydirector Martin Jeffrey W — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed same daydirector Martin Jeffrey W — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed same daydirector Martin Jeffrey W — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Martin Jeffrey W — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sedgwick Karen L — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed same dayofficer Wold Dyan Z. — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed same daydirector Winn Caroline Ann — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed same daydirector Winn Caroline Ann — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Larroque Alexander Lisa — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed same daydirector Sagara Kevin C. — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed same daydirector Sagara Kevin C. — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed same daydirector Sagara Kevin C. — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed same daydirector Winn Caroline Ann — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-17Winn Caroline AnndirectorSale7,900 @ $90.56$715K−23.9% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open25,164Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-17Winn Caroline AnndirectorSale100 @ $89.85$9K−0.3% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open33,064Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18Ferrero PablodirectorSale2,600 @ $89.53$233K−14.4% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open15,423Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14DAY DIANA LofficerSale3,300 @ $92.13$304K−12.6% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open22,870Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01BIRD JUSTIN CHRISTOPHERofficerSale1,128 @ $96.69$109K−5.0% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open21,632Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Wold Dyan Z.officerSale1,539 @ $95.38$147K−24.9% of holding−4.7%−28.0%4,633Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12Kirk Jennifer MdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $93.44$93Kownership Δ n/a+0.7%−24.7%1,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11MARK RICHARD JdirectorPurchase2,692 @ $93.30$251K+18.3% of holding+6.5%−20.8%17,376Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-11WARNER CYNTHIA JdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $92.95$232K+28.5% of holding+6.5%−20.8%11,275Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Sedgwick Karen LofficerSale2,699 @ $92.61$250K−6.3% of holding+6.5%−20.8%40,215Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Sedgwick Karen LofficerSale1,186 @ $93.52$111K−2.9% of holding+6.5%−20.8%39,029Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Sedgwick Karen LofficerSale987 @ $91.36$90K−2.2% of holding+6.5%−20.8%42,914Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-05Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale20,533 @ $87.13$1.8M−88.8% of holding−0.8%+1.5%2,580Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-05Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale2,278 @ $87.74$200K−88.3% of holding−0.8%+1.5%302Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-05Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale300 @ $88.93$27K−99.2% of holding−0.8%+1.5%2Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale27,606 @ $89.38$2.5M−54.4% of holding−4.0%−3.1%23,113Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-02Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale2,394 @ $88.31$211K−4.5% of holding−4.0%−3.1%50,719Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-24Sedgwick Karen LofficerSale7,564 @ $92.29$698K−15.5% of holding−8.3%−16.2%41,280Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-19Wold Dyan Z.officerSale1,510 @ $91.38$138K−30.3% of holding−6.8%−9.8%3,481Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-19Winn Caroline AnndirectorSale500 @ $91.70$46K−1.5% of holding−6.8%−9.8%33,664Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18Winn Caroline AnndirectorSale5,500 @ $91.58$504K−13.9% of holding−6.5%−11.8%34,164Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Larroque Alexander LisadirectorSale4,322 @ $92.55$400K−27.6% of holding−7.6%−9.6%11,325Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-29Sagara Kevin C.directorSale14,433 @ $89.50$1.3M−93.3% of holding+0.4%+12.1%1,042Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15Sagara Kevin C.directorSale17,224 @ $84.51$1.5M−52.7% of holding+9.8%+14.6%15,475Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15Sagara Kevin C.directorSale11,640 @ $83.76$975K−26.3% of holding+9.8%+14.6%32,699Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-14Winn Caroline AnndirectorSale5,114 @ $82.01$419K−11.5% of holding−0.6%+11.1%39,380Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-23Larroque Alexander LisadirectorSale1,576 @ $80.00$126K−9.2% of holding+2.0%+0.3%15,600Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14DAY DIANA LofficerSale5,217 @ $73.99$386K−20.9% of holding−2.7%+8.5%19,767Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14DAY DIANA LofficerSale2,798 @ $74.77$209K−14.2% of holding−2.7%+8.5%16,969Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01BIRD JUSTIN CHRISTOPHERofficerSale3,108 @ $71.07$221K−12.6% of holding+4.8%+6.9%21,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01BIRD JUSTIN CHRISTOPHERofficerSale1,709 @ $71.51$122K−8.0% of holding+4.8%+6.9%19,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18WALL PETER RofficerSale8,192 @ $70.81$580K−40.8% of holding+6.4%+0.7%11,867Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17Ferrero PablodirectorPurchase2,600 @ $70.96$184K+19.9% of holding+4.7%+1.4%15,649Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17CONESA ANDRESdirectorPurchase1,400 @ $71.54$100K+6.9% of holding+4.7%+1.4%21,668Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12YARDLEY JAMES CdirectorPurchase5,019 @ $69.74$350Kownership Δ n/a+3.8%+4.9%5,019Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10MEARS MICHAEL NdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $67.70$68K+25.0% of holding+3.8%+1.0%5,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06MARK RICHARD JdirectorPurchase7,160 @ $69.81$500K+130.1% of holding+7.0%+4.9%12,662Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06WARNER CYNTHIA JdirectorPurchase700 @ $70.65$49K+8.7% of holding+7.0%+4.9%8,759Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11Larroque Alexander LisadirectorSale2,755 @ $81.93$226K−16.5% of holding−9.8%−6.8%13,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-30Martin Jeffrey WdirectorSale49,737 @ $82.94$4.1M−100.0% of holding−10.7%−4.4%2Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-23WALL PETER RofficerSale3,923 @ $83.01$326K−24.8% of holding+7.3%−5.8%11,867Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

216 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01WARNER CYNTHIA JdirectorAward / grant31715,435Form 4
2026-07-01MEARS MICHAEL NdirectorAward / grant13722,566Form 4
2026-07-01YARDLEY JAMES CdirectorAward / grant13742,986Form 4
2026-07-01MARK RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant1372,006Form 4
2026-07-01Kirk Jennifer MdirectorAward / grant1376,500Form 4
2026-07-01CONESA ANDRESdirectorAward / grant13711,732Form 4
2026-07-01Taylor Jack TdirectorAward / grant13743,574Form 4
2026-07-01Sagara Kevin C.directorAward / grant1375,438Form 4
2026-07-01Weaving AnyadirectorAward / grant137932Form 4
2026-07-01Ferrero PablodirectorAward / grant13716,258Form 4
2026-05-12CONESA ANDRESdirectorWithheld for tax57624,018Form 4
2026-05-12Ferrero PablodirectorWithheld for tax57618,023Form 4
2026-05-12YARDLEY JAMES CdirectorAward / grant1,49942,849Form 4
2026-05-12MARK RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant1,49918,913Form 4
2026-05-12MEARS MICHAEL NdirectorAward / grant1,49922,429Form 4
2026-05-12WARNER CYNTHIA JdirectorAward / grant1,49915,118Form 4
2026-05-12Kirk Jennifer MdirectorAward / grant1,4996,364Form 4
2026-05-12CONESA ANDRESdirectorAward / grant1,49924,593Form 4
2026-05-12Sagara Kevin C.directorAward / grant1,4995,301Form 4
2026-05-12Ferrero PablodirectorAward / grant1,49918,599Form 4
2026-05-12Taylor Jack TdirectorAward / grant1,49943,437Form 4
2026-05-12Weaving AnyadirectorAward / grant1,4993,558Form 4
2026-04-01WARNER CYNTHIA JdirectorAward / grant29813,528Form 4
2026-04-01Taylor Jack TdirectorAward / grant12841,653Form 4
2026-04-01Kirk Jennifer MdirectorAward / grant1284,832Form 4
2026-04-01YARDLEY JAMES CdirectorAward / grant12841,069Form 4
2026-04-01MARK RICHARD JdirectorAward / grant1281,857Form 4
2026-04-01MEARS MICHAEL NdirectorAward / grant12820,788Form 4
2026-04-01Weaving AnyadirectorAward / grant128790Form 4
2026-04-01CONESA ANDRESdirectorAward / grant12811,517Form 4
2026-04-01Sagara Kevin C.directorAward / grant1283,777Form 4
2026-04-01Ferrero PablodirectorAward / grant12816,012Form 4
2026-03-19Martin Jeffrey WdirectorDiscretionary2,098212,992Form 4
2026-03-18Martin Jeffrey WdirectorDiscretionary2,093210,894Form 4
2026-03-17Martin Jeffrey WdirectorDiscretionary2,067208,802Form 4
2026-03-12Martin Jeffrey WdirectorDiscretionary2,140206,734Form 4
2026-03-11Martin Jeffrey WdirectorDiscretionary2,156204,594Form 4
2026-01-27Martin Jeffrey WdirectorWithheld for tax17,28120,985Form 4
2026-01-27Sagara Kevin C.directorWithheld for tax3,6054,890Form 4
2026-01-27Sedgwick Karen LofficerWithheld for tax1,78343,901Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-09-122025-06-26$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-08-072023-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-31$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2023-05-262021-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.