SRCE1st Source CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.94 · now $85.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SRCE has typically landed between $77.98 and $97.36 — a range of −9.3% to +13.3% from the issuance price $85.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SRCE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$77.98worst · -9.3%$97.36best · +13.3%
  • now $85.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $86.61 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $82.13–$91.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $77.98–$97.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−42.3%−42.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−41.7%−41.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−40.9%−40.9%+1.0%
3 best
2008-12-02+56.2%+0.0%+57.5%
2008-07-07+55.9%+0.0%+55.9%
2008-07-03+46.6%−3.1%+49.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+0.9%
n=20
Apr
55%
+0.5%
n=20
May
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Jul
65%
+4.9%
n=20
Aug
35%
−0.1%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
60%
+3.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$562026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $44K — Bauer Brett A.2026-02-13: 1 insider purchase, $4K — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $78K — Buhr Jeffrey L2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $125K — GRIFFITH JOHN B2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $4K — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2025-08-15: 1 insider purchase, $3K — BIRMINGHAM MELODY2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $3K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $4K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $203K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $4K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $44K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bauer Brett A. — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed 25 days after the tradeofficer Buhr Jeffrey L — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same dayofficer GRIFFITH JOHN B — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 116 days after the tradedirector BIRMINGHAM MELODY — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 207 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Bauer Brett A.officerSale500 @ $87.89$44K−1.6% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open30,706Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase51 @ $69.14$4K+0.6% of holding−3.2%+12.2%9,139Form 4 · filed 25 days after the trade
2025-12-15Buhr Jeffrey LofficerSale1,175 @ $66.14$78K−1.7% of holding−3.3%+7.3%68,430Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10GRIFFITH JOHN BofficerSale1,900 @ $66.01$125K−2.8% of holding−5.6%+11.4%65,976Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase57 @ $61.71$4K+0.6% of holding+6.7%+9.4%9,088Form 4 · filed 116 days after the trade
2025-08-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase54 @ $61.31$3K+0.6% of holding+1.7%+12.3%9,031Form 4 · filed 207 days after the trade
2025-05-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase53 @ $62.42$3K+0.6% of holding−7.2%−14.8%8,977Form 4 · filed 299 days after the trade
2025-02-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase47 @ $66.41$3K+0.5% of holding+1.7%−12.8%8,924Form 4 · filed 389 days after the trade
2024-11-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase46 @ $66.53$3K+0.5% of holding−7.1%−4.8%8,878Form 4 · filed 480 days after the trade
2024-08-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase52 @ $57.02$3K+0.6% of holding+2.1%+5.9%8,831Form 4 · filed 572 days after the trade
2024-05-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase53 @ $52.43$3K+0.6% of holding−8.5%+13.7%8,779Form 4 · filed 664 days after the trade
2024-02-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase56 @ $49.50$3K+0.6% of holding−8.6%+1.7%8,726Form 4 · filed 754 days after the trade
2023-11-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase58 @ $47.21$3K+0.7% of holding+2.6%−11.9%8,669Form 4 · filed 846 days after the trade
2023-08-11BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase53 @ $48.21$3K+0.6% of holding−8.0%−2.9%8,611Form 4 · filed 942 days after the trade
2023-05-12BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase48 @ $40.98$2K+0.6% of holding+6.4%+7.3%8,558Form 4 · filed 1033 days after the trade
2023-02-16BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase39 @ $49.55$2K+0.5% of holding−5.8%−15.9%8,510Form 4 · filed 1118 days after the trade
2022-11-10BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase32 @ $57.58$2K+0.4% of holding−9.2%−34.4%8,471Form 4 · filed 1216 days after the trade
2022-08-12BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase38 @ $48.50$2K+0.5% of holding+3.1%+4.6%8,438Form 4 · filed 1306 days after the trade
2022-05-13BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase40 @ $44.35$2K+0.5% of holding+11.2%+32.6%8,400Form 4 · filed 1397 days after the trade
2022-02-16BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase36 @ $48.72$2K+0.4% of holding−2.1%+7.1%8,360Form 4 · filed 1483 days after the trade
2021-11-12BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase35 @ $50.84$2K+0.4% of holding−3.7%+1.1%8,324Form 4 · filed 1579 days after the trade
2021-08-13BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase35 @ $47.56$2K+0.4% of holding−3.9%+5.9%8,289Form 4 · filed 1670 days after the trade
2021-05-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase30 @ $48.06$1K+0.4% of holding−0.9%−7.0%8,254Form 4 · filed 1761 days after the trade
2021-02-12BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase42 @ $0.00$0+0.5% of holding+7.4%−4.1%8,224Form 4 · filed 1852 days after the trade
2020-11-13BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding+7.2%+18.3%8,182Form 4 · filed 1943 days after the trade
2020-08-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding−11.5%+2.6%8,181Form 4 · filed 2034 days after the trade
2020-05-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase2 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding+14.0%+2.7%8,180Form 4 · filed 2125 days after the trade
2020-02-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding−8.1%−22.7%8,178Form 4 · filed 2216 days after the trade
2019-11-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding+1.4%−35.6%8,177Form 4 · filed 2307 days after the trade
2019-08-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding+3.4%−10.2%8,176Form 4 · filed 2399 days after the trade
2019-05-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding−2.9%+4.5%8,176Form 4 · filed 2491 days after the trade
2019-02-14BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding+0.1%−7.7%8,175Form 4 · filed 2581 days after the trade
2018-11-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding−6.3%−6.7%8,174Form 4 · filed 2672 days after the trade
2018-08-15BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorPurchase1 @ $0.00$0+0.0% of holding−5.1%−14.3%8,174Form 4 · filed 2764 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04AFFLECK-GRAVES JOHN FdirectorAward / grant23921,970Form 4
2026-08-04OZARK TIMOTHY KdirectorAward / grant21152,230Form 4
2026-08-04SHREWSBURY RONDAdirectorAward / grant17814,641Form 4
2026-08-04Schurz Todd F.directorAward / grant15515,966Form 4
2026-08-04Graham Tracy DdirectorAward / grant15513,650Form 4
2026-08-04Torres Isaac P.directorAward / grant15512,716Form 4
2026-06-12MURPHY CHRISTOPHER J IIIdirectorGift2,000493,885Form 4
2026-06-12Murphy Carmen CtenPercentOwnerGift2,0001,182,690Form 4
2026-06-03Torres Isaac P.directorAward / grant1,58312,561Form 4
2026-06-03OZARK TIMOTHY KdirectorAward / grant1,58352,019Form 4
2026-06-03SHREWSBURY RONDAdirectorAward / grant1,54214,463Form 4
2026-06-03Schurz Todd F.directorAward / grant1,51515,811Form 4
2026-06-03AFFLECK-GRAVES JOHN FdirectorAward / grant1,48121,731Form 4
2026-06-03SCHWABERO MARK DdirectorAward / grant1,33830,168Form 4
2026-06-03Graham Tracy DdirectorAward / grant56213,495Form 4
2026-06-03FITZPATRICK DANIEL BdirectorAward / grant25049,329Form 4
2026-06-03Murphy Christopher J IVdirectorAward / grant250107,293Form 4
2026-06-03BIRMINGHAM MELODYdirectorAward / grant2509,389Form 4
2026-04-27MURPHY CHRISTOPHER J IIIdirectorGift13,7002,513,812Form 4
2026-04-27Murphy Carmen CtenPercentOwnerGift13,700752,238Form 4
2026-02-17Short Andrea GdirectorAward / grant5,89299,446Form 4
2026-02-17Buhr Jeffrey LofficerAward / grant4,46872,898Form 4
2026-02-17Bauer Brett A.officerAward / grant3,51931,206Form 4
2026-02-17Murphy Kevin CarmichaelofficerAward / grant4,096123,787Form 4
2026-02-03AFFLECK-GRAVES JOHN FdirectorAward / grant32620,250Form 4
2026-02-03OZARK TIMOTHY KdirectorAward / grant28850,436Form 4
2026-02-03SHREWSBURY RONDAdirectorAward / grant24312,921Form 4
2026-02-03Schurz Todd F.directorAward / grant21214,296Form 4
2026-02-03Torres Isaac P.directorAward / grant21210,978Form 4
2026-02-03Graham Tracy DdirectorAward / grant21212,933Form 4
2026-02-03SCHWABERO MARK DdirectorAward / grant16728,830Form 4
2025-12-11MURPHY CHRISTOPHER J IIIdirectorGift2,500485,885Form 4
2025-12-11MURPHY CHRISTOPHER J IIIdirectorGift2,5002,527,512Form 4
2025-12-11Murphy Carmen CtenPercentOwnerGift2,500765,938Form 4
2025-12-11Murphy Carmen CtenPercentOwnerGift2,5001,171,397Form 4
2025-11-03OZARK TIMOTHY KdirectorAward / grant31950,148Form 4
2025-11-03AFFLECK-GRAVES JOHN FdirectorAward / grant31919,924Form 4
2025-11-03Torres Isaac P.directorAward / grant23510,766Form 4
2025-11-03Schurz Todd F.directorAward / grant23514,084Form 4
2025-11-03Graham Tracy DdirectorAward / grant23512,721Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.