Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.14 · now $22.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPTX has typically landed between $19.72 and $29.15 — a range of −10.9% to +31.6% from the issuance price $22.14.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
74 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.14 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.87 (+12.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.73–$26.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.72–$29.15
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-01 | −13.3% | −23.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | −12.3% | −19.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | −9.3% | −10.9% | +14.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-28 | +39.9% | −0.8% | +39.9% |
| 2026-07-29 | +33.0% | +0.0% | +41.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | +29.3% | −1.5% | +37.0% |
74 overlapping windows · 2026-05-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | HOMBACH ROBERT J. | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $18.14 | $236K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Purchase | 1,100,000 @ $18.00 | $19.8M | +21.2% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,294,951 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Gladstein Lana | officer | Conversion | 105,263 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chen Michael Cunyuan | officer | Conversion | 10,526 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PAUL STEVEN M | director | Conversion | 210,526 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Loebel Antony | officer | Conversion | 63,157 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PureTech Health plc | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 40,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | HEALY JAMES | director | Conversion | 2,526,315 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | HEALY JAMES | director | Conversion | 6,052,631 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Torres Denice | director | Conversion | 42,105 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PureTech Health plc | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,031,578 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | White Lauren | officer | Conversion | 21,052 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PureTech Health plc | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 8,421,052 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Gladstein Lana | officer | Conversion | 33,515 | 33,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | White Lauren | officer | Conversion | 6,702 | 6,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Torres Denice | director | Conversion | 13,406 | 13,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PAUL STEVEN M | director | Conversion | 67,031 | 863,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Loebel Antony | officer | Conversion | 20,109 | 20,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chen Michael Cunyuan | officer | Conversion | 3,351 | 3,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | HEALY JAMES | director | Conversion | 1,927,159 | 1,927,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | HEALY JAMES | director | Conversion | 804,379 | 2,731,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,513,686 | 2,513,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,681,265 | 5,194,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PAUL STEVEN M | director | Conversion | 67,031 | 863,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Loebel Antony | officer | Conversion | 20,109 | 20,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chen Michael Cunyuan | officer | Conversion | 3,351 | 3,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Gladstein Lana | officer | Conversion | 33,515 | 33,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Torres Denice | director | Conversion | 13,406 | 13,406 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.