Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.27 · now $11.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPT has typically landed between $8.27 and $14.07 — a range of −26.6% to +24.9% from the issuance price $11.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,676 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-12-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.93 (-3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.64–$12.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.27–$14.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,676 windows spanning 2019-12-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-04-09 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-04-08 | −52.6% | −52.6% | +1.9% |
| 2024-04-12 | −50.0% | −52.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-21 | +91.3% | +0.0% | +91.3% |
| 2020-05-04 | +89.8% | +0.0% | +89.8% |
| 2020-04-13 | +87.8% | +0.0% | +94.3% |
1,676 overlapping windows · 2019-12-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
+7.0%
n=7
Feb
29%
−8.3%
n=7
Mar
14%
−6.1%
n=7
Apr
43%
−5.4%
n=7
May
57%
+4.8%
n=7
Jun
71%
+7.6%
n=7
Jul
57%
+3.6%
n=7
Aug
57%
+12.0%
n=7
Sep
29%
−4.5%
n=7
Oct
33%
−4.2%
n=6
Nov
50%
+8.8%
n=6
Dec
33%
−3.0%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $10.77 | $431K | −84.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 10,895 @ $11.45 | $125K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 239,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick | director | Sale | 717 @ $11.45 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 234,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $10.12 | $405K | −84.4% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $8.28 | $331K | −84.4% of holding | +19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $6.99 | $280K | −84.4% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 11,641 @ $7.75 | $90K | −4.4% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 39,960 @ $6.58 | $263K | −84.3% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40 @ $7.41 | $296 | −0.5% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $5.03 | $201K | −84.4% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $5.96 | $238K | −84.4% of holding | −17.7% | +63.9% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $6.80 | $31K | −2.1% of holding | −12.1% | +55.7% | 210,179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 23,855 @ $6.76 | $161K | −8.3% of holding | −14.8% | +54.9% | 262,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 16,139 @ $6.76 | $109K | −7.0% of holding | −14.8% | +54.9% | 214,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $7.37 | $295K | −84.4% of holding | −15.2% | +23.9% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Purchase | 93,984 @ $10.67 | $1.0M | +12.0% of holding | −25.4% | −29.7% | 875,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $10.70 | $428K | −84.4% of holding | −25.4% | −29.7% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick | director | Purchase | 90,661 @ $11.14 | $1.0M | +373.0% of holding | −15.7% | −53.8% | 114,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $11.12 | $445K | −84.4% of holding | −12.8% | −44.8% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 10,291 @ $10.21 | $105K | −3.5% of holding | +1.0% | −40.4% | 286,231 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $10.22 | $46K | −1.9% of holding | −1.0% | −38.9% | 230,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,550 @ $10.21 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | +0.2% | −39.9% | 235,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.22 | $204K | −72.9% of holding | +1.6% | −42.4% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $10.22 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | +1.6% | −42.4% | 238,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $11.81 | $236K | −72.9% of holding | −14.1% | −56.6% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $11.81 | $18K | −0.6% of holding | −14.1% | −56.6% | 240,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $14.94 | $299K | −72.9% of holding | −23.1% | −64.1% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-03 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 10,566 @ $15.16 | $160K | −3.4% of holding | −21.8% | −60.2% | 296,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,644 @ $15.16 | $55K | −1.5% of holding | −21.8% | −60.2% | 243,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $15.19 | $23K | −0.6% of holding | −21.8% | −60.2% | 241,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $16.38 | $328K | −72.9% of holding | −11.8% | −60.3% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $16.42 | $25K | −0.6% of holding | −11.8% | −60.3% | 247,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | Walker Karen | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.05 | $95K | −14.7% of holding | −32.6% | −59.5% | 28,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $21.13 | $845K | −84.4% of holding | −26.2% | −61.4% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $21.16 | $355K | −12.3% of holding | −26.2% | −61.4% | 119,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $21.08 | $32K | −0.6% of holding | −21.2% | −57.9% | 248,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick | director | Sale | 2,466 @ $20.55 | $51K | −100.0% of holding | −12.6% | −62.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 26,392 @ $21.80 | $575K | −78.1% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 13,608 @ $21.35 | $291K | −28.7% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 33,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Sale | 10,641 @ $21.56 | $229K | −1.3% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 809,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 10,575 @ $21.56 | $228K | −3.3% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 307,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,649 @ $21.56 | $79K | −1.4% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 251,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $21.13 | $32K | −0.6% of holding | −9.3% | −68.5% | 250,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $20.81 | $833K | −84.4% of holding | −0.9% | −72.4% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $20.82 | $31K | −0.6% of holding | −0.9% | −72.4% | 255,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Walker Karen | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.42 | $97K | −16.3% of holding | +15.9% | −66.4% | 25,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $19.99 | $800K | −84.4% of holding | −7.9% | −73.0% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $19.90 | $334K | −11.0% of holding | −7.9% | −73.0% | 136,575 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $21.93 | $33K | −0.6% of holding | −3.9% | −63.2% | 256,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick | director | Sale | 23,646 @ $24.58 | $581K | −100.0% of holding | −16.6% | −58.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 37,035 @ $26.28 | $973K | −78.1% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 10,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 24,496 @ $26.32 | $645K | −10.5% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 208,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Sale | 17,787 @ $26.32 | $468K | −3.3% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 528,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 9,025 @ $26.32 | $238K | −6.0% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 141,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 2,965 @ $26.83 | $80K | −28.6% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $26.26 | $37K | −1.0% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 139,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 100 @ $26.89 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −13.6% | −55.1% | 139,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 33,018 @ $32.48 | $1.1M | −69.6% of holding | −20.6% | −63.0% | 14,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Sale | 6,982 @ $33.09 | $231K | −48.5% of holding | −20.6% | −63.0% | 7,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Del Preto Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $33.64 | $50K | −1.0% of holding | −21.8% | −61.1% | 150,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,321,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 13,323 | 1,356,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,361,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick | director | Award / grant | 120,192 | 235,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,401,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 2,190 | 1,370,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Award / grant | 2,415 | 1,372,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,441,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 13,323 | 1,369,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Walker Karen | director | Award / grant | 26,470 | 55,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Collins Steven A | director | Award / grant | 26,470 | 127,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BARRIS PETER J | director | Award / grant | 26,470 | 57,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Stanley William Thomas | director | Award / grant | 26,470 | 50,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brown Gregory Scott | director | Award / grant | 13,779 | 51,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,481,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,521,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 2,189 | 1,383,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,561,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 36,342 | 838,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Award / grant | 546,448 | 1,385,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,601,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,641,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 2,484 | 781,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 1,681,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 47,417 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Barretto Ryan Paul | director | Withheld for tax | 7,618 | 783,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Brown Gregory Scott | director | Award / grant | 37,422 | 37,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 1,721,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 27,417 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-07 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 1,741,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-07 | Howard Justyn Russell | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 27,417 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.