SPROSpero Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.11 · now $1.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPRO has typically landed between $0.84 and $1.34 — a range of −24.0% to +21.0% from the issuance price $1.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SPRO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$0.8431worst · -24.0%$1.34best · +21.0%
  • now $1.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.06 (-4.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.9532$1.17
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8431$1.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,204 windows spanning 2017-11-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-05-02−79.6%−79.6%+0.0%
2022-04-25−78.3%−78.3%+0.0%
2022-04-29−78.0%−78.0%+4.7%
3 best
2025-05-08+395.7%+0.0%+395.7%
2025-05-07+377.5%−0.5%+377.5%
2025-05-12+373.8%+0.0%+373.8%

2,204 overlapping windows · 2017-11-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+2.8%
n=9
Feb
44%
−4.2%
n=9
Mar
44%
+0.3%
n=9
Apr
33%
−2.4%
n=9
May
44%
+22.7%
n=9
Jun
44%
−1.9%
n=9
Jul
22%
−10.7%
n=9
Aug
33%
+2.8%
n=9
Sep
33%
+11.7%
n=9
Oct
38%
+0.1%
n=8
Nov
50%
+1.8%
n=8
Dec
33%
−1.2%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $63K — Rajavelu Esther2026-02-06: 3 insider sales, $252K — Rajavelu Esther, Keutzer Timothy …2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $8K — Keutzer Timothy2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $52K — Keutzer Timothy2026-02-02: 2 insider sales, $82K — Keutzer Timothy, Rajavelu Esther2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $95K — Rajavelu Esther2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $16K — Mahadevia Ankit, Keutzer Timothy2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $16K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $95K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $393K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $63K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Rajavelu Esther — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rajavelu Esther — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rajavelu Esther — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Keutzer Timothy — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Keutzer Timothy — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Keutzer Timothy — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Keutzer Timothy — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rajavelu Esther — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rajavelu Esther — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Mahadevia Ankit — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer Keutzer Timothy — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 6 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Rajavelu EstherofficerSale25,240 @ $2.51$63K−2.5% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open986,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06Rajavelu EstherofficerSale50,816 @ $2.36$120K−4.8% of holding+3.2%−61.7%1,012,091Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06Rajavelu EstherofficerSale37,101 @ $2.36$88K−3.4% of holding+3.2%−61.7%1,062,907Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06Keutzer TimothyofficerSale18,652 @ $2.36$44K−2.5% of holding+3.2%−61.7%742,506Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-04Keutzer TimothyofficerSale3,471 @ $2.24$8K−0.5% of holding+2.4%−57.1%761,158Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03Keutzer TimothyofficerSale24,224 @ $2.14$52K−3.1% of holding+8.2%−53.4%764,629Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Keutzer TimothyofficerSale18,891 @ $2.20$42K−2.3% of holding+4.2%−56.3%788,853Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-02Rajavelu EstherofficerSale18,442 @ $2.20$41K−1.6% of holding+4.2%−56.3%1,100,008Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Rajavelu EstherofficerSale40,270 @ $2.37$95K−4.4% of holding−7.1%−7.4%869,450Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28Mahadevia AnkitdirectorSale6,572 @ $1.97$13K−0.9% of holding−7.6%+3.1%703,294Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-08-28Keutzer TimothyofficerSale1,695 @ $1.97$3K−0.2% of holding−7.6%+3.1%739,744Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-02-05Shukla SathofficerSale106,408 @ $0.78$83K−5.8% of holding−6.5%+143.6%1,736,883Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Mahadevia AnkitdirectorSale55,260 @ $0.78$43K−7.4% of holding−6.5%+143.6%689,866Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Shukla SathofficerSale42,786 @ $0.78$33K−2.3% of holding−6.5%+143.6%1,843,291Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Keutzer TimothyofficerSale27,643 @ $0.78$22K−3.5% of holding−6.5%+143.6%766,359Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Keutzer TimothyofficerSale24,920 @ $0.78$19K−3.3% of holding−6.5%+143.6%741,439Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Rajavelu EstherofficerSale20,689 @ $0.78$16K−2.8% of holding−6.5%+143.6%724,720Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Mahadevia AnkitdirectorSale13,959 @ $0.78$11K−1.8% of holding−6.5%+143.6%745,126Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Shukla SathofficerSale6,139 @ $0.78$5K−0.3% of holding−6.5%+143.6%1,886,077Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Keutzer TimothyofficerSale3,974 @ $0.78$3K−0.5% of holding−6.5%+143.6%794,002Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Zack DebraofficerAward / grant324,675324,675Form 4
2026-08-03Zack DebraofficerAward / grant162,311162,311Form 4
2026-06-23Deshpande MilinddirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Jackson Scott ThomasdirectorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23Jackson Scott ThomasdirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Pottage John C JrdirectorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23Pottage John C JrdirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Smith CynthiadirectorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23THOMAS FRANK EdirectorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23THOMAS FRANK EdirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23VINK PATRICK V.J.J.directorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23VINK PATRICK V.J.J.directorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Tregoning KathleendirectorAward / grant10,00085,000Form 4
2026-06-23Tregoning KathleendirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Smith CynthiadirectorAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-06-23Deshpande MilinddirectorAward / grant10,000101,454Form 4
2026-02-02Keutzer TimothyofficerAward / grant137,000137,000Form 4
2026-02-02Rajavelu EstherofficerAward / grant498,000498,000Form 4
2026-02-02Keutzer TimothyofficerAward / grant68,000807,744Form 4
2026-02-02Rajavelu EstherofficerAward / grant249,0001,118,450Form 4
2025-06-12Deshpande MilinddirectorAward / grant20,00091,454Form 4
2025-06-12Mahadevia AnkitdirectorAward / grant20,000709,866Form 4
2025-06-12VINK PATRICK V.J.J.directorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-06-12Smith CynthiadirectorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-06-12Pottage John C JrdirectorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-06-12Tregoning KathleendirectorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-06-12THOMAS FRANK EdirectorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-06-12Jackson Scott ThomasdirectorAward / grant20,00075,000Form 4
2025-05-02Rajavelu EstherofficerAward / grant185,000909,720Form 4
2025-02-03Shukla SathofficerAward / grant751,4071,892,216Form 4
2025-02-03Rajavelu EstherofficerAward / grant266,139645,409Form 4
2025-02-03Rajavelu EstherofficerAward / grant100,000745,409Form 4
2025-02-03Keutzer TimothyofficerAward / grant266,139797,976Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.