Issued 2026-09-16 at $547.43 · now $547.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPOT has typically landed between $441.57 and $666.38 — a range of −19.3% to +21.7% from the issuance price $547.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,105 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-04-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($547.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPOT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $547.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $547.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $562.55 (+2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $516.91–$608.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $441.57–$666.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,105 windows spanning 2018-04-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-03-28 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +5.8% |
| 2022-03-30 | −34.9% | −38.1% | +1.7% |
| 2022-03-29 | −34.7% | −38.5% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-05 | +50.7% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
| 2023-01-06 | +50.1% | +0.0% | +50.1% |
| 2023-01-03 | +49.7% | −0.7% | +49.7% |
2,105 overlapping windows · 2018-04-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
63%
+8.0%
n=8
Feb
63%
+1.7%
n=8
Mar
25%
−3.3%
n=8
Apr
38%
−0.8%
n=8
May
67%
+5.9%
n=9
Jun
78%
+9.4%
n=9
Jul
56%
+1.2%
n=9
Aug
67%
+2.1%
n=9
Sep
44%
−5.2%
n=9
Oct
50%
+4.4%
n=8
Nov
38%
+2.5%
n=8
Dec
38%
−1.8%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $544.64 | $2.4M | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 3,829 @ $542.71 | $2.1M | −10.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 3,069 @ $543.79 | $1.7M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,230 @ $541.72 | $1.2M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,194 @ $546.68 | $1.2M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,958 @ $545.60 | $1.1M | −7.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,259 @ $540.69 | $681K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 755 @ $547.81 | $414K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 693 @ $548.74 | $380K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 333 @ $549.49 | $183K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 154 @ $539.92 | $83K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 39 @ $537.19 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Sale | 2,088 @ $512.50 | $1.1M | −5.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Sale | 1,722 @ $513.43 | $884K | −4.1% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 4,089 @ $510.94 | $2.1M | −16.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,377 @ $508.99 | $1.2M | −8.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,235 @ $510.00 | $1.1M | −8.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,937 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,224 @ $508.19 | $1.1M | −7.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,054 @ $506.87 | $1.0M | −6.1% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 1,865 @ $502.05 | $936K | −2.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,501 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $502.07 | $836K | −4.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,574 @ $502.90 | $792K | −4.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,553 @ $506.04 | $786K | −4.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 1,253 @ $501.16 | $628K | −1.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 1,159 @ $502.86 | $583K | −1.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 769 @ $500.03 | $385K | −1.9% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 744 @ $501.17 | $373K | −1.9% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 706 @ $511.64 | $361K | −3.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 600 @ $504.03 | $302K | −1.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 590 @ $499.96 | $295K | −0.8% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 315 @ $506.04 | $159K | −0.5% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 254 @ $503.86 | $128K | −0.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 242 @ $504.76 | $122K | −0.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 4,025 @ $475.97 | $1.9M | −10.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 3,234 @ $480.00 | $1.6M | −11.8% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,978 @ $478.02 | $1.4M | −9.0% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,699 @ $477.08 | $1.3M | −7.6% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,992 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,625 @ $478.83 | $1.3M | −8.7% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 2,248 @ $480.87 | $1.1M | −9.3% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 1,409 @ $481.23 | $678K | −2.0% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 1,376 @ $474.96 | $654K | −3.3% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 1,224 @ $480.38 | $588K | −1.7% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 778 @ $482.24 | $375K | −3.6% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 635 @ $482.37 | $306K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 625 @ $484.48 | $303K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,757 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 509 @ $476.31 | $242K | −0.7% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 452 @ $484.21 | $219K | −2.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 385 @ $478.45 | $184K | −0.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 324 @ $477.33 | $155K | −0.4% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 239 @ $485.82 | $116K | −1.2% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 150 @ $483.64 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 135 @ $485.47 | $66K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 104 @ $484.70 | $50K | −0.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 75 @ $482.83 | $36K | −0.4% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 40 @ $486.00 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $496.52 | $10.3M | −50.6% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Norstrom Alex | director | Sale | 5,436 @ $498.27 | $2.7M | −7.4% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,390 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | STAGGS THOMAS O | director | Sale | 5,477 @ $526.00 | $2.9M | −60.2% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Marshall Christopher P | director | Sale | 2,650 @ $519.86 | $1.4M | −39.6% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Lorentzon Sven Hans Martin | director | Sale | 35,380 @ $525.73 | $18.6M | −84.7% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,383 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,913 | 40,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,913 | 104,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Norstrom Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 809 | 65,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Withheld for tax | 428 | 39,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lundstrom Anna | officer | Withheld for tax | 249 | 16,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Withheld for tax | 117 | 20,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Luiga Christian | officer | Withheld for tax | 105 | 8,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Option exercise | 1,722 | 41,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Option exercise | 1,722 | 1,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 40,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 72,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 125,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Norstrom Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 808 | 66,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Withheld for tax | 559 | 41,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Lundstrom Anna | officer | Withheld for tax | 443 | 16,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Luiga Christian | officer | Withheld for tax | 315 | 9,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Withheld for tax | 117 | 20,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 41,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 73,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 146,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 5,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Norstrom Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 808 | 67,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Withheld for tax | 362 | 42,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lundstrom Anna | officer | Withheld for tax | 152 | 17,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Withheld for tax | 117 | 20,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 41,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 73,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Norstrom Alex | director | Option exercise | 5,436 | 10,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 167,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Norstrom Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 808 | 68,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jenkins Dustee | officer | Withheld for tax | 363 | 42,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lundstrom Anna | officer | Withheld for tax | 153 | 17,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Soderstrom Gustav | director | Withheld for tax | 117 | 20,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Option exercise | 5,630 | 19,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | SARANDOS THEODORE A | director | Option exercise | 5,630 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Lorentzon Sven Hans Martin | director | Award / grant | 1,974 | 1,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Marshall Christopher P | director | Award / grant | 658 | 4,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | McCARTHY BARRY | director | Award / grant | 1,974 | 1,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Mehrotra Shishir | director | Award / grant | 3,948 | 3,948 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.