SPNT · TickerCove

SPNTSiriusPoint Ltd.Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsuranceas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.47 · now $24.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPNT has typically landed between $21.64 and $28.42 — a range of −11.6% to +16.1% from the issuance price $24.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,270 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$24.47 · 79% of range

$17.48 low$26.31 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 11.6%

−11.6%worst (p90)+16.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SPNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $24.47 (+0.0%)
typical $24.81 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $23.39–$26.22
90% range $21.64–$28.42

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,270 windows spanning 2013-08-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−46.0%	−46.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−45.2%	−45.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−45.0%	−45.0%	+0.7%
3 best
2023-03-17	+31.6%	+0.0%	+31.6%
2023-03-15	+30.8%	+0.0%	+31.1%
2023-03-13	+30.7%	+0.0%	+30.7%

3,270 overlapping windows · 2013-08-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

−1.0%

n=13

Feb

54%

−0.9%

n=13

Mar

69%

+1.6%

n=13

Apr

46%

−0.4%

n=13

May

54%

+1.4%

n=13

Jun

62%

+0.3%

n=13

Jul

54%

+0.4%

n=13

Aug

69%

+2.8%

n=13

Sep

36%

−1.5%

n=14

Oct

62%

+2.4%

n=13

Nov

77%

+3.8%

n=13

Dec

46%

+0.5%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-05-08	de la Gueronniere Rafe	director	Sale	30,000 @ $19.55	$587K	−19.0% of holding	−6.3%	−18.9%	127,578	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-02-27	Loeb Daniel S	director	Sale	2,916,631 @ $13.71	$40.0M	−21.5% of holding	+16.8%	+9.4%	10,618,008	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27	Loeb Daniel S	director	Sale	1,190,000 @ $13.71	$16.3M	−11.2% of holding	+16.8%	+9.4%	9,428,008	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,702	248,995	Form 4
2026-05-31	McKinney James J.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,648	50,711	Form 4
2026-05-29	Hudson Martin Peter	director	Award / grant	5,903	9,601	Form 4
2026-05-29	Ludlow Sharon M	director	Award / grant	5,903	160,693	Form 4
2026-05-29	Mahmud Mehdi	director	Award / grant	5,903	123,558	Form 4
2026-05-29	Masojada Bronislaw Edmund	director	Award / grant	5,903	65,727	Form 4
2026-05-29	Purtill Sabra R.	director	Award / grant	5,903	5,903	Form 4
2026-05-29	Robart Jason	director	Award / grant	5,903	97,303	Form 4
2026-05-29	Cross Susan Lee	director	Award / grant	5,903	23,887	Form 4
2026-05-11	Egan Scott	director	Other acquisition	16,582	117,213	Form 4
2026-05-11	Egan Scott	director	Other acquisition	16,582	1,336,694	Form 4
2026-04-30	Govrin David E.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,488	673,208	Form 4
2026-04-30	Egan Scott	director	Withheld for tax	4,247	133,795	Form 4
2026-04-30	McKinney James J.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,620	54,359	Form 4
2026-04-30	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,413	250,697	Form 4
2026-04-30	Gibbs Robin	officer	Withheld for tax	2,174	164,063	Form 4
2026-04-30	Charles Patrick John	officer	Withheld for tax	1,068	145,658	Form 4
2026-04-30	Shapella Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	911	43,942	Form 4
2026-04-28	McKinney James J.	officer	Award / grant	15,180	56,979	Form 4
2026-04-28	Govrin David E.	officer	Award / grant	19,926	677,696	Form 4
2026-04-28	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Award / grant	12,746	253,110	Form 4
2026-04-28	Shapella Anthony	officer	Award / grant	5,895	44,853	Form 4
2026-04-28	Egan Scott	director	Award / grant	48,625	913,071	Form 4
2026-04-28	Egan Scott	director	Other acquisition	775,029	138,042	Form 4
2026-04-28	Egan Scott	director	Other acquisition	775,029	1,320,112	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gibbs Robin	officer	Award / grant	10,766	166,237	Form 4
2026-04-28	Charles Patrick John	officer	Award / grant	10,717	146,726	Form 4
2026-04-14	Govrin David E.	officer	Withheld for tax	161,185	672,528	Form 4
2026-04-14	Egan Scott	director	Withheld for tax	138,421	876,758	Form 4
2026-04-14	Gibbs Robin	officer	Withheld for tax	72,375	162,211	Form 4
2026-04-14	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Withheld for tax	42,360	276,458	Form 4
2026-04-14	Charles Patrick John	officer	Withheld for tax	36,152	139,359	Form 4
2026-04-14	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,620	243,484	Form 4
2026-04-14	Govrin David E.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,955	663,573	Form 4
2026-04-14	Egan Scott	director	Withheld for tax	7,690	869,068	Form 4
2026-04-14	Govrin David E.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,803	657,770	Form 4
2026-04-14	Egan Scott	director	Withheld for tax	4,622	864,446	Form 4
2026-04-14	Gibbs Robin	officer	Withheld for tax	4,021	158,190	Form 4
2026-04-14	Leonardo Thomas C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,120	240,364	Form 4
2026-04-14	Gibbs Robin	officer	Withheld for tax	2,719	155,471	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i