Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.49 · now $11.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPIR has typically landed between $7.45 and $17.17 — a range of −35.1% to +49.4% from the issuance price $11.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,451 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.03 (-4.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.99–$13.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.45–$17.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,451 windows spanning 2020-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-09-22 | −69.2% | −69.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-09-21 | −62.5% | −62.5% | +20.8% |
| 2021-09-23 | −62.1% | −62.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-08-23 | +121.0% | +0.0% | +121.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | +113.7% | −1.6% | +113.7% |
| 2026-03-09 | +98.1% | −0.1% | +98.1% |
1,451 overlapping windows · 2020-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+10.9%
n=6
Feb
33%
−1.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−5.5%
n=6
Apr
50%
+4.6%
n=6
May
50%
+4.0%
n=6
Jun
50%
−6.6%
n=6
Jul
50%
+7.0%
n=6
Aug
17%
−8.9%
n=6
Sep
50%
+4.6%
n=6
Oct
20%
−9.8%
n=5
Nov
40%
+8.6%
n=5
Dec
33%
−1.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Messer Stephen | director | Sale | 17,986 @ $14.06 | $253K | −17.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 22,502 @ $14.09 | $317K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 948,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 5,100 @ $14.09 | $72K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,473,468 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Pelez Perez Celia | officer | Sale | 4,484 @ $14.09 | $63K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 258,632 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | ENGEL ALISON K | officer | Sale | 4,286 @ $14.09 | $60K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 261,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Oehme Johann Gabriel | officer | Sale | 2,989 @ $14.09 | $42K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 215,107 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 19,596 @ $19.07 | $374K | −2.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 968,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | ENGEL ALISON K | officer | Sale | 12,702 @ $19.08 | $242K | −4.6% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 5,299 @ $19.08 | $101K | −0.4% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,478,568 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 5,048 @ $19.08 | $96K | −0.5% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Pelez Perez Celia | officer | Sale | 4,660 @ $19.07 | $89K | −1.7% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 263,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Oehme Johann Gabriel | officer | Sale | 3,107 @ $19.07 | $59K | −1.4% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,885 @ $19.07 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,483,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $18.31 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,485,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $18.31 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 988,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,801 @ $12.86 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +44.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,691,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,201 @ $12.86 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +44.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,115,380 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 58,428 @ $8.53 | $498K | −3.3% of holding | +43.9% | +39.7% | 1,693,603 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 41,712 @ $8.53 | $356K | −3.6% of holding | +43.9% | +39.7% | 1,116,581 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Pelez Perez Celia | officer | Sale | 19,134 @ $8.53 | $163K | −6.7% of holding | +43.9% | +39.7% | 267,776 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Oehme Johann Gabriel | officer | Sale | 12,757 @ $8.53 | $109K | −5.5% of holding | +43.9% | +39.7% | 221,203 | Form 4 · filed 49 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,801 @ $12.10 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −21.0% | −8.6% | 1,487,552 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,201 @ $12.10 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −21.0% | −8.6% | 989,514 | Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,802 @ $8.24 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +42.7% | +68.7% | 1,489,353 | Form 4 · filed 109 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,202 @ $8.24 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +42.7% | +68.7% | 990,715 | Form 4 · filed 109 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 54,793 @ $7.59 | $416K | −3.5% of holding | +7.4% | +216.8% | 1,491,155 | Form 4 · filed 140 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 39,119 @ $7.59 | $297K | −3.8% of holding | +7.4% | +216.8% | 991,917 | Form 4 · filed 140 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 117,236 @ $8.40 | $985K | −7.4% of holding | +17.5% | +106.5% | 1,476,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,817 @ $12.02 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −30.9% | +41.4% | 1,545,948 | Form 4 · filed 171 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,212 @ $12.02 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −30.9% | +41.4% | 1,031,036 | Form 4 · filed 171 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,811 @ $10.42 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | +13.8% | 1,547,765 | Form 4 · filed 200 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,208 @ $10.42 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | +13.8% | 1,032,248 | Form 4 · filed 200 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 54,783 @ $8.66 | $474K | −3.4% of holding | +24.7% | −12.3% | 1,549,576 | Form 4 · filed 232 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 39,112 @ $8.66 | $339K | −3.6% of holding | +24.7% | −12.3% | 1,033,456 | Form 4 · filed 232 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 20,799 @ $10.92 | $227K | −1.3% of holding | −20.8% | −1.6% | 1,593,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,801 @ $12.45 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −29.1% | −10.5% | 1,604,359 | Form 4 · filed 263 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,201 @ $12.45 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −29.1% | −10.5% | 1,072,568 | Form 4 · filed 263 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 130,191 @ $12.25 | $1.6M | −7.5% of holding | −22.7% | −35.2% | 1,614,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 1,805 @ $9.92 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | −26.1% | 1,606,160 | Form 4 · filed 289 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 1,204 @ $9.92 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | −26.1% | 1,073,769 | Form 4 · filed 289 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 25,907 @ $9.91 | $257K | −1.6% of holding | +9.2% | −22.2% | 1,614,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Messer Stephen | director | Sale | 16,660 @ $10.85 | $181K | −16.9% of holding | −2.0% | −26.5% | 82,062 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 7,750 @ $12.01 | $93K | −0.5% of holding | −7.1% | −32.2% | 1,640,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 9,227 @ $12.06 | $111K | −0.6% of holding | −5.0% | −34.9% | 1,640,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 23,563 @ $10.87 | $256K | −1.5% of holding | −0.2% | −40.5% | 1,565,046 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 53,289 @ $11.44 | $610K | −3.2% of holding | −16.5% | −44.8% | 1,607,965 | Form 4 · filed 323 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 21,933 @ $11.44 | $251K | −2.0% of holding | −16.5% | −44.8% | 1,074,973 | Form 4 · filed 323 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 27,293 @ $9.28 | $253K | −1.7% of holding | +16.8% | +23.3% | 1,588,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 27,564 @ $8.57 | $236K | −1.7% of holding | +10.2% | −0.7% | 1,615,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 28,015 @ $10.67 | $299K | −1.7% of holding | −23.7% | −33.0% | 1,666,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 23,276 @ $11.20 | $261K | −1.4% of holding | −23.7% | −33.0% | 1,643,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 78,933 @ $10.02 | $791K | −4.3% of holding | −21.9% | −29.2% | 1,761,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 66,667 @ $10.81 | $721K | −3.8% of holding | −21.9% | −29.2% | 1,694,757 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 51,346 @ $11.27 | $579K | −2.7% of holding | −17.0% | −22.8% | 1,840,357 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 17,979 @ $11.27 | $203K | −4.8% of holding | −17.0% | −22.8% | 359,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Basola Leonardo | officer | Sale | 14,228 @ $11.27 | $160K | −6.0% of holding | −17.0% | −22.8% | 222,251 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Johnson Boyd C. | officer | Sale | 11,304 @ $11.27 | $127K | −3.6% of holding | −17.0% | −22.8% | 300,304 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-20 | Platzer Peter | director | Sale | 30,546 @ $8.74 | $267K | −1.8% of holding | +3.5% | +34.6% | 1,661,254 | Form 4 · filed 690 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-20 | Condor Theresa | director | Sale | 18,474 @ $8.74 | $161K | −1.7% of holding | +3.5% | +34.6% | 1,096,906 | Form 4 · filed 690 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Mellinger Eric M. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 1,516 | 129,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Withheld for tax | 14,423 | 971,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 18,282 | 984,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 2,285 | 965,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 820 | 985,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 554 | 984,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 820 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 554 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 18,282 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Condor Theresa | director | Option exercise | 2,285 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rinow Toni | director | Award / grant | 7,261 | 28,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Messer Stephen | director | Award / grant | 7,261 | 101,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | AMBLE JOAN LORDI | director | Award / grant | 7,261 | 95,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hoke Dirk | director | Award / grant | 9,062 | 9,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 7,261 | 127,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 120,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Martinez John Thomas | director | Award / grant | 26,570 | 26,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Pelez Perez Celia | officer | Award / grant | 136,910 | 286,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | ENGEL ALISON K | officer | Award / grant | 128,540 | 278,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Platzer Peter | director | Award / grant | 275,867 | 1,752,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Condor Theresa | director | Award / grant | 301,120 | 1,158,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Oehme Johann Gabriel | officer | Award / grant | 83,960 | 233,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Myers David E. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 3,249 | 118,346 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Messer Stephen | director | Other acquisition | 12,330 | 94,392 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Messer Stephen | director | Other acquisition | 24,660 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Rinow Toni | director | Award / grant | 21,517 | 21,517 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 2,136 | 115,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-08 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 130,191 | 1,744,390 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-08 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 130,191 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Porteous William | director | Award / grant | 2,065 | 112,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 7,750 | 1,647,856 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 7,750 | 130,191 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 8,444 | 1,648,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 783 | 1,649,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 8,444 | 137,941 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Platzer Peter | director | Option exercise | 783 | 3,134 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Messer Stephen | director | Award / grant | 15,909 | 98,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Hoke Dirk | director | Award / grant | 21,650 | 21,650 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.