SPH · TickerCove

SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.Utilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.01 · now $17.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPH has typically landed between $15.54 and $18.81 — a range of −8.7% to +10.6% from the issuance price $17.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.01 · 19% of range

$16.27 low$20.09 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 6.6%

−8.7%worst (p90)+10.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.01 (+0.0%)
typical $17.09 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $16.53–$17.65
90% range $15.54–$18.81

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−50.9%	−50.9%	+0.1%
2020-02-19	−50.0%	−50.8%	+0.3%
2020-02-21	−47.2%	−50.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-10	+50.5%	+0.0%	+57.1%
2008-10-09	+45.1%	−4.5%	+50.0%
2016-02-10	+40.4%	+0.0%	+42.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

90%

+6.0%

n=20

Feb

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Mar

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Apr

85%

+3.9%

n=20

May

50%

−0.0%

n=20

Jun

35%

−1.7%

n=20

Jul

75%

+1.8%

n=20

Aug

30%

−1.8%

n=20

Sep

65%

+1.7%

n=20

Oct

85%

+3.7%

n=20

Nov

35%

−2.6%

n=20

Dec

50%

−1.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Koepke Bryon L	officer	Sale	2,848 @ $17.65	$50K	−2.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	100,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	Chanin Matthew J	director	Sale	10,000 @ $19.31	$193K	−13.7% of holding	−2.3%	−6.2%	63,176	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13	LOGAN HAROLD R JR	director	Sale	7,500 @ $18.66	$140K	−19.1% of holding	−3.2%	+4.4%	31,727	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21	LOGAN HAROLD R JR	director	Sale	6,900 @ $19.14	$132K	−15.0% of holding	−3.0%	−13.1%	39,227	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $20.50	$41K	−1.2% of holding	+0.9%	−24.2%	159,355	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Palleschi Craig	officer	Sale	1,400 @ $22.03	$31K	−6.4% of holding	+2.5%	−19.9%	20,498	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11	Schueler Michael A	other	Sale	7,746 @ $20.93	$162K	−41.0% of holding	+3.7%	−15.9%	11,133	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Sale	5,971 @ $19.50	$116K	−3.6% of holding	−5.3%	−3.2%	161,355	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-19	LOGAN HAROLD R JR	director	Disposition	5,000	26,727	Form 4
2025-11-15	Cleffi Francesca	officer	Award / grant	17,415	34,049	Form 4
2025-11-15	Koepke Bryon L	officer	Award / grant	17,415	103,562	Form 4
2025-11-15	STIVALA MICHAEL A	director	Award / grant	48,224	336,981	Form 4
2025-11-15	Centeno Alejandro	officer	Award / grant	18,754	69,587	Form 4
2025-11-15	Cleffi Francesca	officer	Award / grant	17,415	105,776	Form 4
2025-11-15	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Award / grant	24,112	49,064	Form 4
2025-11-15	DAMBROSIO A DAVIN	officer	Award / grant	7,368	14,992	Form 4
2025-11-15	Scanlon Neil	officer	Award / grant	21,433	43,612	Form 4
2025-11-15	Onderdonk Keith P	officer	Award / grant	10,717	21,316	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sankara Nandini	officer	Award / grant	10,717	21,316	Form 4
2025-11-15	Onderdonk Keith P	officer	Award / grant	10,717	86,599	Form 4
2025-11-15	Bloomstein Daniel S	officer	Award / grant	10,717	77,570	Form 4
2025-11-15	Centeno Alejandro	officer	Award / grant	18,754	18,754	Form 4
2025-11-15	Bloomstein Daniel S	officer	Award / grant	10,717	21,316	Form 4
2025-11-15	Dante Elmer	officer	Award / grant	8,038	14,928	Form 4
2025-11-15	Koepke Bryon L	officer	Award / grant	17,415	34,049	Form 4
2025-11-15	Kuglin Michael	officer	Award / grant	24,112	198,182	Form 4
2025-11-15	Kuglin Michael	officer	Award / grant	24,112	49,064	Form 4
2025-11-15	Palleschi Craig	officer	Award / grant	8,038	15,417	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sankara Nandini	officer	Award / grant	10,717	66,092	Form 4
2025-11-15	Dante Elmer	officer	Award / grant	8,038	37,482	Form 4
2025-11-15	Scanlon Neil	officer	Award / grant	21,433	180,403	Form 4
2025-11-15	DAMBROSIO A DAVIN	officer	Award / grant	7,368	79,710	Form 4
2025-11-15	Palleschi Craig	officer	Award / grant	8,038	24,949	Form 4
2025-11-15	Dagan Douglas	officer	Award / grant	34,830	101,331	Form 4
2025-11-15	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Award / grant	24,112	171,469	Form 4
2025-11-15	STIVALA MICHAEL A	director	Award / grant	16,075	31,290	Form 4
2025-11-14	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Disposition	23,403	147,357	Form 4
2025-11-14	Kuglin Michael	officer	Disposition	23,403	174,070	Form 4
2025-11-14	Kuglin Michael	officer	Option exercise	23,403	197,473	Form 4
2025-11-14	Brinkworth Douglas	officer	Option exercise	23,403	170,760	Form 4
2025-11-14	STIVALA MICHAEL A	director	Withheld for tax	22,442	288,757	Form 4
2025-11-14	Scanlon Neil	officer	Option exercise	20,712	179,682	Form 4
2025-11-14	Scanlon Neil	officer	Disposition	20,712	158,970	Form 4
2025-11-14	Cleffi Francesca	officer	Option exercise	15,331	103,692	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dagan Douglas	officer	Disposition	15,331	66,501	Form 4
2025-11-14	Koepke Bryon L	officer	Option exercise	15,331	101,478	Form 4
2025-11-14	Dagan Douglas	officer	Option exercise	15,331	81,832	Form 4
2025-11-14	Cleffi Francesca	officer	Disposition	15,331	88,361	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i