SPGIS&P Global Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchangesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $406.76 · now $406.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPGI has typically landed between $360.54 and $449.93 — a range of −11.4% to +10.6% from the issuance price $406.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($406.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SPGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $406.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$360.54worst · -11.4%$449.93best · +10.6%
  • now $406.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $410.33 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $390.96–$429.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $360.54–$449.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−50.6%−50.6%+0.0%
2008-09-10−49.2%−49.2%+0.9%
2008-09-08−46.9%−46.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-20+49.4%+0.0%+55.9%
2009-03-18+47.0%−5.7%+47.0%
2020-03-18+46.4%−0.5%+46.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$126.2B
market cap
$15.80
EPS (TTM)
27.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$15.3B
'20'25
Net income$4.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr29.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $406.76$229.54$654.29
  • DCF (intrinsic)$273.02
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$258.84
  • Analyst target · range $498.00–$625.00$546.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$406.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.3%
n=19
May
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.2%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−3.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$559$3742026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — Clay Catherine R2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Moritz Robert Edward Jr.2026-04-29: 1 insider purchase, $998K — CHEUNG MARTINA2026-02-11: 2 insider purchases, $997K — Joly Hubert …2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Eager William W2025-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Eager William W2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $997K2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Clay Catherine R — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Moritz Robert Edward Jr. — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHEUNG MARTINA — Purchase on 2026-04-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Joly Hubert — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Joly Hubert — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Eager William W — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 36 days after the tradedirector Eager William W — Purchase on 2025-09-10, filed 127 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Clay Catherine RdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $431.39$1.1Mownership Δ n/a−12.5%not yet — horizon still open2,500Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30Moritz Robert Edward Jr.directorPurchase1,152 @ $434.03$500Kownership Δ n/a−5.9%not yet — horizon still open1,152Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-29CHEUNG MARTINAdirectorPurchase2,322 @ $429.93$998K+9.2% of holding−8.2%not yet — horizon still open27,518Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11Joly HubertdirectorPurchase2,301 @ $398.94$918K+1394.5% of holding+12.7%−4.3%2,466Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Joly HubertdirectorPurchase199 @ $399.49$79K+8.1% of holding+12.7%−4.3%2,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Eager William WdirectorPurchase12 @ $493.40$6K+0.1% of holding+9.4%−27.5%8,724Form 4 · filed 36 days after the trade
2025-09-10Eager William WdirectorPurchase11 @ $544.30$6K+0.1% of holding−12.9%−24.6%8,712Form 4 · filed 127 days after the trade
2025-08-08Saha SaugataofficerSale2,000 @ $561.12$1.1M−38.8% of holding−3.5%−29.5%3,150Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-06Tavernier EdouardofficerSale1,799 @ $555.00$999K−9.5% of holding−6.5%−27.1%17,138Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Kemps Steven JofficerSale2,000 @ $508.82$1.0M−21.6% of holding−4.0%−23.4%7,249Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Moore SallyofficerSale500 @ $510.43$255K−8.9% of holding−4.0%−23.4%5,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Peterson Douglas L.directorSale5,856 @ $503.59$2.9M−10.6% of holding−3.0%−23.5%49,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Peterson Douglas L.directorSale4,544 @ $501.73$2.3M−7.1% of holding−3.0%−23.5%59,512Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Peterson Douglas L.directorSale4,514 @ $502.72$2.3M−7.6% of holding−3.0%−23.5%54,998Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Peterson Douglas L.directorSale3,959 @ $500.67$2.0M−5.8% of holding−3.0%−23.5%64,056Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Peterson Douglas L.directorSale300 @ $504.38$151K−0.6% of holding−3.0%−23.5%48,842Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14Peterson Douglas L.directorSale3,879 @ $543.46$2.1M−2.5% of holding−1.0%−3.6%153,207Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Peterson Douglas L.directorSale1,025 @ $544.26$558K−0.7% of holding−1.0%−3.6%152,182Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Peterson Douglas L.directorSale300 @ $541.76$163K−0.2% of holding−1.0%−3.6%157,086Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Peterson Douglas L.directorSale277 @ $540.62$150K−0.2% of holding−1.0%−3.6%157,386Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Peterson Douglas L.directorSale40 @ $545.12$22K−0.0% of holding−1.0%−3.6%152,142Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

279 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Thomas Darren RobertofficerWithheld for tax2276,505Form 4
2026-08-01Thomas Darren RobertofficerOption exercise5586,732Form 4
2026-08-01Thomas Darren RobertofficerOption exercise5581,134Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition2,1070Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorAward / grant13,28613,286Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorAward / grant4,9174,917Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition3,7840Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition1190Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition2630Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition3,5690Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorAward / grant13,28613,286Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorAward / grant4,9174,917Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition13,2860Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition4,9170Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition13,2860Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition4,9170Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition2,1070Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition3,7840Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition1190Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition2630Form 4
2026-07-01Eager William WdirectorDisposition3,5690Form 4
2026-05-01Bhathena FirdausofficerAward / grant4,1154,115Form 4
2026-05-01Bhathena FirdausofficerAward / grant2,7432,743Form 4
2026-04-01Craig ChristopherofficerOption exercise1,48012,247Form 4
2026-04-01Craig ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax75611,491Form 4
2026-04-01Craig ChristopherofficerOption exercise1,4800Form 4
2026-03-01Aboaf Eric W.directorOption exercise1,0911,790Form 4
2026-03-01Aboaf Eric W.directorWithheld for tax4791,311Form 4
2026-03-01Saha SaugataofficerAward / grant3,5713,571Form 4
2026-03-01Moore SallyofficerAward / grant1,7851,785Form 4
2026-03-01Ganesan GirishofficerAward / grant1,4281,428Form 4
2026-03-01Aboaf Eric W.directorAward / grant4,6434,643Form 4
2026-03-01Aboaf Eric W.directorOption exercise1,0912,217Form 4
2026-03-01CHEUNG MARTINAdirectorAward / grant10,35810,358Form 4
2026-03-01Twomey ChristinaofficerAward / grant346346Form 4
2026-03-01Eager William WdirectorAward / grant2,1072,107Form 4
2026-03-01Clay Catherine RdirectorAward / grant1,3251,325Form 4
2026-03-01Clay Catherine RdirectorAward / grant857857Form 4
2026-03-01Kemps Steven JofficerAward / grant2,0352,035Form 4
2026-03-01Craig ChristopherofficerAward / grant857857Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2026-07-152026-06-29$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2026-07-122026-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-18$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-08$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-14$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousesale2026-06-052026-04-16$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.