Issued 2026-09-16 at $202.94 · now $202.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPG has typically landed between $179.35 and $227.82 — a range of −11.6% to +12.3% from the issuance price $202.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($202.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $202.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $202.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $206.43 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $195.9–$216.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $179.35–$227.82
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −67.7% | −67.7% | +2.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −65.7% | −68.0% | +1.2% |
| 2020-02-21 | −64.7% | −68.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +67.5% | −10.2% | +67.5% |
| 2009-03-30 | +61.0% | +0.0% | +64.1% |
| 2020-05-06 | +59.0% | −8.2% | +59.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$240.09
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$471.73
- Analyst target · range $194.00–$285.00$215.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$202.94
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 430 @ $223.14 | $96K | +0.8% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 330 @ $223.14 | $74K | +0.7% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 314 @ $223.14 | $70K | +0.9% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 209 @ $223.14 | $47K | +1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Purchase | 199 @ $223.14 | $44K | +1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Purchase | 187 @ $223.14 | $42K | +0.6% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 179 @ $223.14 | $40K | +1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 80 @ $223.14 | $18K | +1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 58 @ $223.14 | $13K | +0.8% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 54 @ $224.92 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 53 @ $225.03 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 47 @ $224.41 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Purchase | 44 @ $224.33 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 43 @ $224.31 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Jones Nina P | director | Purchase | 41 @ $223.14 | $9K | +1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Purchase | 33 @ $224.01 | $7K | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 25 @ $223.94 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Cicco Martin J | director | Purchase | 13 @ $223.14 | $3K | +0.9% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 13 @ $223.10 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 11 @ $223.32 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 6 @ $223.27 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 4 @ $223.51 | $894 | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 4 @ $223.25 | $893 | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 3 @ $223.31 | $670 | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 2 @ $224.07 | $448 | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Jones Nina P | director | Purchase | 2 @ $223.49 | $447 | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Cicco Martin J | director | Purchase | 2 @ $223.37 | $447 | +0.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 1 @ $224.10 | $224 | +0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 491 @ $183.80 | $90K | +0.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 373 @ $183.80 | $69K | +0.8% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 355 @ $183.80 | $65K | +1.1% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 232 @ $183.80 | $43K | +1.2% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Purchase | 221 @ $183.80 | $41K | +1.1% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Purchase | 206 @ $183.80 | $38K | +0.6% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 196 @ $183.80 | $36K | +1.2% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 81 @ $183.80 | $15K | +1.2% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 56 @ $183.80 | $10K | +1.0% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Jones Nina P | director | Purchase | 36 @ $183.80 | $7K | +1.2% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | RULLI JOHN | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $200.88 | $2.0M | −21.9% of holding | −1.8% | −0.6% | 35,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 480 @ $186.00 | $89K | +0.9% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 53,639 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 363 @ $186.00 | $68K | +0.8% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 43,899 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 347 @ $186.00 | $65K | +1.1% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 32,680 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 226 @ $186.00 | $42K | +1.2% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 19,455 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Purchase | 216 @ $186.00 | $40K | +1.1% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 19,481 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Purchase | 201 @ $186.00 | $37K | +0.6% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 32,277 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 192 @ $186.00 | $36K | +1.2% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 16,500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 78 @ $186.00 | $15K | +1.2% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 6,804 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 54 @ $186.00 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 5,827 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Jones Nina P | director | Purchase | 35 @ $186.00 | $7K | +1.2% of holding | +1.3% | +13.5% | 3,031 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 545 @ $183.96 | $100K | +10.4% of holding | −3.0% | +7.1% | 5,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 588 @ $180.80 | $106K | +12.7% of holding | +0.5% | +2.2% | 5,228 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-30 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Purchase | 464 @ $185.95 | $86K | +0.8% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 58,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Purchase | 351 @ $185.95 | $65K | +0.8% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 43,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Purchase | 335 @ $185.95 | $62K | +1.0% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 32,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Purchase | 219 @ $185.95 | $41K | +1.2% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 19,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Purchase | 208 @ $185.95 | $39K | +1.1% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 19,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Purchase | 195 @ $185.95 | $36K | +0.6% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 32,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Purchase | 186 @ $185.95 | $35K | +1.2% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 16,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Roe Peggy | director | Purchase | 76 @ $185.95 | $14K | +1.1% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 6,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Purchase | 53 @ $185.95 | $10K | +1.2% of holding | −10.7% | +3.7% | 4,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Simon Eli | director | Withheld for tax | 5,821 | 50,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SOKOLOV RICHARD S | director | Withheld for tax | 2,306 | 276,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Kelly Kevin M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,434 | 21,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Jackson Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 250 | 9,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Gift | 7,679,189 | 7,679,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Gift | 57,546 | 57,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Gift | 7,679,189 | 7,679,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Code W | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Gift | 57,546 | 57,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Simon Eli | director | Code W | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Simon Eli | director | Award / grant | 3,117 | 3,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Award / grant | 1,109 | 33,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 6,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Award / grant | 1,233 | 45,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 20,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Award / grant | 1,159 | 55,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Award / grant | 1,122 | 17,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Award / grant | 1,122 | 20,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 34,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SELIG STEFAN M | director | Award / grant | 1,109 | 33,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cicco Martin J | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 1,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Roe Peggy | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 7,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Jones Nina P | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 4,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | STEWART MARTA R | director | Award / grant | 1,122 | 17,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Award / grant | 1,122 | 20,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Smith Daniel C. | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 34,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cicco Martin J | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 1,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | RODKIN GARY M | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 20,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Roe Peggy | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 7,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | LEWIS RANDALL J | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 6,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | director | Award / grant | 1,159 | 55,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Jones Nina P | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 4,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | director | Award / grant | 1,233 | 45,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Simon Eli | director | Withheld for tax | 2,030 | 56,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Frey Donald G | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,312 | 22,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RULLI JOHN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,156 | 37,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FIVEL STEVEN E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,048 | 40,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kelly Kevin M | officer | Withheld for tax | 478 | 22,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jackson Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 447 | 9,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Reuille Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 391 | 16,620 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2026-05-27 | 2026-04-20 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Victoria Spartz | House | purchase | 2025-04-26 | 2025-04-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.