Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.93 · now $2.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPCE has typically landed between $1.92 and $4.14 — a range of −34.4% to +41.4% from the issuance price $2.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,231 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPCE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.66 (-9.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.26–$3.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.92–$4.14
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −71.9% | −71.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −69.9% | −71.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −65.1% | −65.1% | +23.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +216.0% | +0.0% | +216.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | +165.2% | +0.0% | +165.2% |
| 2021-01-04 | +146.1% | +0.0% | +146.1% |
2,231 overlapping windows · 2017-09-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Strandberg Diana S. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.49 | $50K | +39.3% of holding | +40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,227 | 149,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Withheld for tax | 743 | 87,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Withheld for tax | 284 | 36,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 1,377 | 4,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 525 | 1,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 1,377 | 88,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 2,273 | 150,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 2,273 | 6,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 525 | 37,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kim Sarah E | officer | Withheld for tax | 41 | 33,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sigur Wanda A | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 72,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Arcangeli Henio R Jr | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 71,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Jonas Tina W | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 71,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kreeger Craig S | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 73,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mabus Raymond E | director | Award / grant | 25,306 | 84,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Strandberg Diana S. | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 92,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | West W Gilbert | director | Award / grant | 21,816 | 71,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Withheld for tax | 148,726 | 147,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Withheld for tax | 81,799 | 87,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Withheld for tax | 35,632 | 36,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Kim Sarah E | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,781 | 33,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,227 | 148,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Withheld for tax | 799 | 148,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Withheld for tax | 743 | 87,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Withheld for tax | 459 | 87,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Withheld for tax | 283 | 36,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Withheld for tax | 153 | 36,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 66,046 | 72,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 524 | 37,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 66,046 | 132,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chitale Aparna | officer | Option exercise | 524 | 2,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 275,672 | 296,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 2,273 | 150,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 275,672 | 551,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Colglazier Michael A | director | Option exercise | 2,273 | 9,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 151,619 | 168,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Kim Sarah E | officer | Option exercise | 55,594 | 111,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 1,377 | 88,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 151,619 | 303,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ahrens Douglas T | officer | Option exercise | 1,377 | 5,507 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.