Issued 2026-09-16 at $86.56 · now $86.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SPB has typically landed between $75.44 and $98.78 — a range of −12.9% to +14.1% from the issuance price $86.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($86.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $86.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $86.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $86.85 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $82.05–$91.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $75.44–$98.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-21 | −57.8% | −60.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −55.9% | −59.6% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-06-04 | +75.2% | +0.0% | +75.2% |
| 2012-06-05 | +72.4% | +0.0% | +73.2% |
| 2012-06-01 | +71.0% | −1.5% | +71.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Maura David M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $72.85 | $182K | +0.3% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 790,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Maura David M | director | Sale | 5,180 @ $63.77 | $330K | −0.7% of holding | −19.4% | −22.5% | 718,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Maura David M | director | Sale | 46,400 @ $65.25 | $3.0M | −5.9% of holding | −21.4% | −33.7% | 743,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Maura David M | director | Sale | 19,400 @ $66.18 | $1.3M | −2.6% of holding | −21.4% | −33.7% | 723,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Maura David M | director | Sale | 200 @ $66.92 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −21.4% | −33.7% | 723,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Patel Gautam | director | Award / grant | 4,602 | 22,141 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Maura David M | director | Award / grant | 40,179 | 788,208 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Campbell Leslie Lloyd | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 14,072 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Rovit Hugh R | director | Award / grant | 4,234 | 52,566 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | James Sherianne | director | Award / grant | 4,510 | 25,839 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Qadir Faisal | officer | Award / grant | 4,971 | 13,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Zargar Ehsan | officer | Award / grant | 9,864 | 153,620 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | POLISTINA TERRY | director | Award / grant | 5,615 | 56,355 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Maura David M | director | Withheld for tax | 40,313 | 748,029 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Zargar Ehsan | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,659 | 156,439 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Qadir Faisal | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,159 | 8,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Maura David M | director | Award / grant | 69,915 | 788,342 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Qadir Faisal | officer | Award / grant | 2,312 | 10,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Zargar Ehsan | officer | Award / grant | 20,716 | 172,098 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Maura David M | director | Withheld for tax | 6,224 | 789,607 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Zargar Ehsan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,845 | 151,382 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Smeltser Jeremy W | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,526 | 60,909 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.