Issued 2026-09-17 at $8.53 · now $8.53 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, SOPH has typically landed between $6.17 and $11.61 — a range of −27.6% to +36.1% from the issuance price $8.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,273 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($8.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SOPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $8.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.47 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.61–$9.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.17–$11.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,273 windows spanning 2021-07-23 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-17 | −49.8% | −49.8% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-25 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-05-13 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +3.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-02-24 | +109.7% | +0.0% | +141.9% |
| 2023-02-15 | +103.4% | −15.3% | +104.9% |
| 2023-02-14 | +97.5% | −18.3% | +97.5% |
1,273 overlapping windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+10.5%
n=5
Feb
60%
−0.9%
n=5
Mar
40%
+10.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−3.7%
n=5
May
0%
−9.3%
n=5
Jun
40%
−1.5%
n=5
Jul
20%
−4.9%
n=5
Aug
50%
+5.3%
n=6
Sep
50%
+1.2%
n=6
Oct
40%
+2.5%
n=5
Nov
40%
+1.2%
n=5
Dec
40%
−1.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $7.88 | $39K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 208,387 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $7.88 | $32K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 552,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Van Well Daan | officer | Sale | 6,168 @ $7.63 | $47K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 338,884 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $7.66 | $65K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,435,822 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | HIBBS KATHY L | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $8.13 | $51K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,992 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.91 | $89K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 556,887 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | HIBBS KATHY L | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $8.68 | $54K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $8.68 | $43K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 213,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $8.80 | $44K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 172,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 5,408 @ $8.40 | $45K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 566,887 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 4,592 @ $8.41 | $39K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 572,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Valente Manuela | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.94 | $79K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 210,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.94 | $79K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 576,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $8.20 | $41K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 177,171 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $7.52 | $30K | −0.7% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 586,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $7.52 | $38K | −2.2% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,387 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $7.61 | $65K | −0.2% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,444,322 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.23 | $145K | −0.6% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,452,822 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.48 | $75K | −1.7% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 590,887 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $7.02 | $49K | −1.2% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,887 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $7.60 | $38K | −2.7% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,171 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $7.00 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | +31.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.92 | $138K | −0.6% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,472,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $6.92 | $69K | −1.6% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $6.95 | $35K | −2.6% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $5.66 | $28K | −2.2% of holding | +49.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.63 | $133K | −0.6% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,492,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 19,800 @ $6.32 | $125K | −0.6% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,512,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 4,581 @ $6.17 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,512,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $5.70 | $29K | −2.1% of holding | +30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $5.70 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | +30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 610,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $5.62 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +33.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,532,622 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 17,685 @ $5.28 | $93K | −0.5% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,541,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 22,486 @ $5.25 | $118K | −0.6% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,558,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Muken Ross | director | Sale | 9,838 @ $5.22 | $51K | −1.4% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 670,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 7,393 @ $5.17 | $38K | −1.2% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 614,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 7,393 @ $5.16 | $38K | −3.1% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 5,285 @ $5.10 | $27K | −2.7% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 192,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Valente Manuela | officer | Sale | 4,241 @ $5.05 | $21K | −2.0% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | CARDOZA GEORGE | officer | Sale | 1,592 @ $5.29 | $8K | −0.5% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Puylaert Kevin | officer | Sale | 138 @ $5.03 | $693 | −0.1% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Puylaert Kevin | officer | Sale | 47 @ $5.03 | $236 | −0.0% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Puylaert Kevin | officer | Sale | 31 @ $5.09 | $158 | −0.0% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 45,419 @ $6.14 | $279K | −1.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 19,650 @ $6.02 | $118K | −0.5% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,581,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 200 @ $6.30 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,581,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 18,060 @ $5.87 | $106K | −0.5% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 350 @ $6.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 31,940 @ $5.84 | $186K | −0.9% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,493 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 18,129 @ $5.73 | $104K | −0.5% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,601,493 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Sale | 6,944 @ $5.51 | $38K | −3.4% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $5.50 | $28K | −2.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 1,373 @ $5.70 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,619,622 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | CARDOZA GEORGE | officer | Sale | 774 @ $5.38 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Muken Ross | director | Sale | 422 @ $5.38 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 680,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $5.01 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 622,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $4.95 | $25K | −2.0% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,780 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $5.24 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,620,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | CARDOZA GEORGE | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.95 | $99K | +6.9% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Menu Philippe | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $4.95 | $25K | −2.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,780 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Valente Manuela | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 220,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Valente Manuela | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 607,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 603,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 4,581 | 3,517,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 4,581 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 45,419 | 3,646,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 45,419 | 4,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 18,060 | 3,619,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 18,060 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 31,940 | 3,633,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Option exercise | 31,940 | 68,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HIBBS KATHY L | director | Award / grant | 28,818 | 218,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HIRSCH DIDIER | director | Award / grant | 28,818 | 218,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ossipow Vincent | director | Award / grant | 28,818 | 138,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cox Troy | director | Award / grant | 28,818 | 252,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cossery Jean-Michel | director | Award / grant | 28,818 | 138,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cossery Jean-Michel | director | Award / grant | 19,724 | 206,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cox Troy | director | Award / grant | 19,724 | 328,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HIBBS KATHY L | director | Award / grant | 19,724 | 109,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ossipow Vincent | director | Award / grant | 19,724 | 522,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HIRSCH DIDIER | director | Award / grant | 19,724 | 240,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | CARDOZA GEORGE | officer | Award / grant | 164,671 | 164,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Award / grant | 82,136 | 82,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Verma Abhimanyu | officer | Award / grant | 119,760 | 119,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Award / grant | 112,936 | 112,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Xu Zhenyu | officer | Award / grant | 164,671 | 164,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | CARDOZA GEORGE | officer | Award / grant | 112,936 | 112,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Muken Ross | director | Award / grant | 628,743 | 628,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Muken Ross | director | Award / grant | 431,211 | 431,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Menu Philippe | officer | Award / grant | 164,671 | 164,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Menu Philippe | officer | Award / grant | 112,936 | 112,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Valente Manuela | officer | Award / grant | 71,869 | 71,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Valente Manuela | officer | Award / grant | 104,790 | 104,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Van Well Daan | officer | Award / grant | 97,536 | 97,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Van Well Daan | officer | Award / grant | 142,216 | 142,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Award / grant | 431,211 | 431,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Camblong Jurgi | director | Award / grant | 628,743 | 628,743 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.