Issued 2026-09-16 at $88.83 · now $88.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SOLV has typically landed between $77.79 and $101.96 — a range of −12.4% to +14.8% from the issuance price $88.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
600 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($88.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SOLV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $88.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $88.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.61 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.37–$94.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $77.79–$101.96
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-03-26 | −22.7% | −22.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | −18.8% | −18.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | −18.4% | −18.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-05 | +26.2% | −2.1% | +26.7% |
| 2025-11-03 | +25.1% | −2.7% | +25.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | +24.6% | +0.0% | +29.4% |
600 overlapping windows · 2024-03-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$142.09
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$224.19
- Analyst target · range $43.00–$94.00$90.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$88.83
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Purchase | 1,475 @ $68.03 | $100K | +41.4% of holding | −2.8% | +20.0% | 5,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | 3M CO | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,800,000 @ $73.45 | $646.4M | −25.6% of holding | +1.2% | −3.5% | 25,569,190 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
205 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Withheld for tax | 26,468 | 185,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 67,261 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 67,261 | 211,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 67,261 | 211,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 67,261 | 211,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 67,261 | 211,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Zieselman Neil Craig | officer | Award / grant | 6,911 | 6,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | COX CARRIE SMITH | director | Award / grant | 4,848 | 4,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | ALBAN CARLOS | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Edwards Shirley Ann | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | EISENBERG GLENN A | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Harris Bernard A Jr | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wilson Darryl L. | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mily Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MAY KAREN J | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | WEILAND JOHN H | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DeVore Susan D. | director | Award / grant | 3,300 | 3,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Withheld for tax | 13,503 | 144,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | McMillan Wayde D. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,404 | 48,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Landucci Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,017 | 39,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kirberger Marcela A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,952 | 13,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Harrington Paul S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,678 | 20,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Gomez Tammy L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,668 | 13,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wilcox Mary T | officer | Withheld for tax | 728 | 6,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | McMillan Wayde D. | director | Option exercise | 9,503 | 53,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 34,315 | 158,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Harrington Paul S | officer | Option exercise | 3,960 | 3,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | McMillan Wayde D. | director | Option exercise | 9,503 | 9,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wilcox Mary T | officer | Option exercise | 2,376 | 7,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wilcox Mary T | officer | Option exercise | 2,376 | 2,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Landucci Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,422 | 41,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Landucci Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,422 | 4,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kirberger Marcela A. | officer | Option exercise | 4,488 | 15,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Gomez Tammy L | officer | Option exercise | 3,960 | 3,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kirberger Marcela A. | officer | Option exercise | 4,488 | 4,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Gomez Tammy L | officer | Option exercise | 3,960 | 15,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Harrington Paul S | officer | Option exercise | 3,960 | 22,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hanson Bryan C | director | Option exercise | 34,315 | 34,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Edwards Shirley Ann | director | Option exercise | 3,403 | 8,947 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| James French Hill | House | sale | 2026-01-23 | 2025-12-31 | $15–50K |
| Ron Wyden | Senate | sale | 2025-02-21 | 2025-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-02-12 | 2025-01-15 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | purchase | 2024-06-14 | 2024-05-03 | $1–15K |
| Gary Peters | Senate | sale | 2024-05-23 | 2024-05-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.