SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.84 · now $16.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SOFI has typically landed between $12.75 and $22.76 — a range of −24.3% to +35.2% from the issuance price $16.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,434 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SOFI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.75worst · -24.3%$22.76best · +35.2%
  • now $16.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.68 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.73–$18.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.75–$22.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,434 windows spanning 2020-11-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-03-30−37.4%−37.4%+0.0%
2021-11-11−36.5%−36.5%+0.0%
2022-03-29−36.4%−39.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-12-30+106.9%−2.7%+106.9%
2021-01-05+106.3%−0.2%+112.2%
2020-12-16+105.6%+0.0%+105.6%

1,434 overlapping windows · 2020-11-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+16.6%
n=6
Feb
17%
−9.2%
n=6
Mar
0%
−13.6%
n=6
Apr
50%
−5.3%
n=6
May
100%
+12.2%
n=6
Jun
33%
+2.8%
n=6
Jul
67%
+11.1%
n=6
Aug
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Sep
33%
−2.9%
n=6
Oct
80%
+17.4%
n=5
Nov
40%
+3.6%
n=5
Dec
33%
+4.1%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$152026-08-20: 1 insider sale, $203K — Keough Kelli2026-07-20: 1 insider sale, $188K — Keough Kelli2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $190K — Keough Kelli2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $21K — Lavet Robert S2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Rishel Jeremy2026-06-16: 1 insider purchase, $251K — Noto Anthony2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $156K — Keough Kelli2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $249K — Noto Anthony2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Noto Anthony2026-04-21: 1 insider sale, $188K — Keough Kelli2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $165K — Keough Kelli2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Rishel Jeremy2026-03-17: 1 insider purchase, $501K — Noto Anthony2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Noto Anthony2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $184K — Keough Kelli2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Freiberg Steven J2026-02-06: 1 insider purchase, $105K — Lavet Robert S2026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Schuppenhauer Eric2026-01-20: 1 insider sale, $244K — Keough Kelli2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $257K — Keough Kelli2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Rishel Jeremy2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $234K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $3.0M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $284K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $244K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $205K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $188K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $499K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $156K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $251K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $188K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $203K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lavet Robert S — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rishel Jeremy — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed same daydirector Noto Anthony — Purchase on 2026-06-16, filed same dayofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Noto Anthony — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed same daydirector Noto Anthony — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-04-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed same daydirector Rishel Jeremy — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed same daydirector Noto Anthony — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector Noto Anthony — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed same dayofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector Freiberg Steven J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lavet Robert S — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer Schuppenhauer Eric — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed same dayofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Keough Kelli — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed same daydirector Rishel Jeremy — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Keough KelliofficerSale11,286 @ $18.00$203K−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open356,442Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-20Keough KelliofficerSale10,954 @ $17.19$188K−2.9% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open367,728Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Keough KelliofficerSale10,954 @ $17.35$190K−2.8% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open378,682Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18Lavet Robert SofficerSale1,188 @ $17.55$21K−1.3% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open88,200Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-17Rishel JeremydirectorSale102,123 @ $17.78$1.8M−10.2% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open895,089Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16Noto AnthonydirectorPurchase13,888 @ $18.06$251K+0.1% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open11,960,507Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-20Keough KelliofficerSale10,037 @ $15.53$156K−3.0% of holding+8.3%not yet — horizon still open323,247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Noto AnthonydirectorPurchase15,545 @ $16.00$249K+0.1% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open11,946,619Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Noto AnthonydirectorPurchase15,878 @ $15.73$250K+0.1% of holding+4.6%not yet — horizon still open11,931,074Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-21Keough KelliofficerSale9,742 @ $19.25$188K−2.8% of holding−22.0%not yet — horizon still open333,284Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-20Keough KelliofficerSale9,742 @ $16.94$165K−2.8% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open343,026Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-18Rishel JeremydirectorSale94,958 @ $17.43$1.7M−10.2% of holding+5.4%not yet — horizon still open839,640Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17Noto AnthonydirectorPurchase28,900 @ $17.32$501K+0.2% of holding+4.7%−16.1%11,704,352Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Noto AnthonydirectorPurchase56,000 @ $17.88$1.0M+0.5% of holding−8.7%−15.1%11,675,452Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20Keough KelliofficerSale9,755 @ $18.87$184K−3.2% of holding−5.2%−12.2%293,725Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Freiberg Steven JdirectorSale94,225 @ $20.31$1.9M−13.8% of holding−10.4%−25.7%588,849Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06Lavet Robert SofficerPurchase5,000 @ $21.04$105K+41.1% of holding−10.4%−25.7%17,172Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Schuppenhauer EricofficerPurchase5,000 @ $19.93$100K+2.2% of holding−3.5%−20.3%228,768Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20Keough KelliofficerSale9,468 @ $25.75$244K−3.0% of holding−25.3%−43.9%303,480Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-23Keough KelliofficerSale9,468 @ $27.14$257K−2.9% of holding−5.8%−40.8%312,948Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17Rishel JeremydirectorSale91,837 @ $26.64$2.4M−10.4% of holding−0.3%−44.1%794,598Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

279 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Keough KelliofficerWithheld for tax66,033418,276Form 4
2026-09-15Rishel JeremydirectorWithheld for tax41,750931,274Form 4
2026-09-15Lavet Robert SofficerWithheld for tax14,414109,843Form 4
2026-09-15Pinto ArunofficerWithheld for tax11,838228,623Form 4
2026-09-15Schuppenhauer EricofficerWithheld for tax2,757334,336Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorWithheld for tax188,25912,276,337Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax59,3411,870,290Form 4
2026-09-14Lavet Robert SofficerOption exercise36,05736,058Form 4
2026-09-14Schuppenhauer EricofficerOption exercise6,49390,903Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise37,824227,123Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise11,363159,080Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise52,954317,716Form 4
2026-09-14Pinto ArunofficerOption exercise11,434114,342Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise28,748186,865Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise26,476158,861Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise55,191772,668Form 4
2026-09-14Pinto ArunofficerOption exercise9,740136,354Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise13,067130,677Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise5,68179,541Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise36,589237,829Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise14,609204,531Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise82,643165,287Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise154,197513,990Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise136,166816,992Form 4
2026-09-14Pinto ArunofficerOption exercise9,740240,461Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise14,6091,929,631Form 4
2026-09-14Schuppenhauer EricofficerOption exercise6,493337,093Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise136,16612,255,208Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise136,16612,255,208Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise28,748961,661Form 4
2026-09-14Noto AnthonydirectorOption exercise154,19712,409,405Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise36,5891,915,022Form 4
2026-09-14Lapointe ChristopherofficerOption exercise14,6091,929,631Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise11,363973,024Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise13,067478,628Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise82,643439,085Form 4
2026-09-14Keough KelliofficerOption exercise5,681484,309Form 4
2026-09-14Pinto ArunofficerOption exercise9,740240,461Form 4
2026-09-14Lavet Robert SofficerOption exercise36,057124,257Form 4
2026-09-14Rishel JeremydirectorOption exercise37,824932,913Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.