Issued 2026-09-25 at $82.88 · now $82.88 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SO has typically landed between $76.96 and $90.24 — a range of −7.1% to +8.9% from the issuance price $82.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($82.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $82.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $82.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $83.64 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $80.78–$86.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.96–$90.24
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −37.4% | −37.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −33.6% | −33.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −30.9% | −30.9% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +32.0% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
| 2020-03-20 | +19.7% | −6.8% | +30.1% |
| 2020-03-16 | +17.4% | −9.2% | +26.7% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$29.83
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$88.27
- Analyst target · range $79.00–$112.00$101.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$82.88
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Sena Peter P III | officer | Sale | 4,266 @ $88.59 | $378K | −13.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $88.87 | $124K | −21.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $88.45 | $9K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Spainhour Sterling A Jr. | director | Sale | 3,333 @ $94.02 | $313K | −8.6% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $94.28 | $9K | −1.5% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $95.77 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $91.16 | $9K | −1.5% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,688 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $96.57 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,788 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Greene Kimberly S, | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $96.67 | $2.4M | −19.4% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Cummiskey Christopher | officer | Sale | 6,669 @ $96.55 | $644K | −17.8% of holding | −10.5% | −26.4% | 30,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Connally Stan W | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $97.13 | $1.2M | −7.2% of holding | −9.8% | −25.0% | 161,481 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Sale | 5,123 @ $95.15 | $487K | −42.7% of holding | +2.9% | −17.3% | 6,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Anderson Bryan D | officer | Sale | 6,206 @ $93.83 | $582K | −10.8% of holding | −4.5% | +5.0% | 51,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Spainhour Sterling A Jr. | director | Sale | 2,380 @ $95.02 | $226K | −12.0% of holding | −5.0% | −12.0% | 17,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Greene Kimberly S, | director | Sale | 13,158 @ $95.00 | $1.3M | −12.3% of holding | −1.6% | −13.2% | 93,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Cummiskey Christopher | officer | Sale | 12,335 @ $89.54 | $1.1M | −35.4% of holding | −4.3% | −13.3% | 22,502 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Connally Stan W | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $92.24 | $1.2M | −7.7% of holding | +0.8% | −15.0% | 149,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Greene Kimberly S, | director | Sale | 32,190 @ $93.12 | $3.0M | −23.2% of holding | +4.6% | −17.0% | 106,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C | director | Sale | 24,407 @ $90.13 | $2.2M | −21.8% of holding | +4.7% | −7.3% | 87,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | DAVIS MARTIN BERNARD | director | Sale | 1,125 @ $89.61 | $101K | −1.1% of holding | +4.7% | −7.3% | 102,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C | director | Sale | 1,593 @ $90.00 | $143K | −1.4% of holding | +3.2% | −3.9% | 112,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Cummiskey Christopher | officer | Sale | 944 @ $86.00 | $81K | −2.6% of holding | +11.8% | +6.8% | 34,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
278 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | SMITH WILLIAM G JR | director | Award / grant | 867 | 163,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GRAIN DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 854 | 86,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MEADOR DAVID E | director | Award / grant | 802 | 9,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Turner John M JR | director | Award / grant | 802 | 3,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 473 | 32,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | EARLEY ANTHONY F JR | director | Award / grant | 473 | 31,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Etheredge James O | director | Award / grant | 473 | 2,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Svinicki Kristine L | director | Award / grant | 473 | 11,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thomas Lizanne | director | Award / grant | 473 | 7,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | JOHNS JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 473 | 88,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Akella Janaki | director | Award / grant | 473 | 21,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | EARLEY ANTHONY F JR | director | Award / grant | 230 | 859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Sena Peter P III | officer | Withheld for tax | 316 | 31,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Sena Peter P III | officer | Option exercise | 712 | 31,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Sena Peter P III | officer | Option exercise | 667 | 667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C | director | Option exercise | 6,898 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C | director | Withheld for tax | 3,414 | 213,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | WOMACK CHRISTOPHER C | director | Option exercise | 7,662 | 216,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SMITH WILLIAM G JR | director | Award / grant | 851 | 160,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GRAIN DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 838 | 85,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MEADOR DAVID E | director | Award / grant | 787 | 9,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turner John M JR | director | Award / grant | 787 | 2,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOHNS JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 464 | 87,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Akella Janaki | director | Award / grant | 464 | 20,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Klein Dale E. | director | Award / grant | 464 | 57,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Svinicki Kristine L | director | Award / grant | 464 | 11,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 464 | 31,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JAMES DONALD M | director | Award / grant | 464 | 203,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thomas Lizanne | director | Award / grant | 464 | 7,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | EARLEY ANTHONY F JR | director | Award / grant | 464 | 30,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Etheredge James O | director | Award / grant | 464 | 2,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | EARLEY ANTHONY F JR | director | Award / grant | 298 | 629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 82 | 6,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Option exercise | 82 | 6,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Option exercise | 13 | 305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Option exercise | 42 | 975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kim Matthew M. | officer | Option exercise | 23 | 539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Drake Sloane N | officer | Withheld for tax | 633 | 38,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Drake Sloane N | officer | Option exercise | 1,275 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Drake Sloane N | officer | Option exercise | 1,420 | 39,565 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-02 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-08-29 | 2025-08-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2025-05-09 | 2025-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Mrs Greene | House | purchase | 2024-11-08 | 2024-11-07 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | purchase | 2024-09-02 | 2023-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2024-08-21 | 2024-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-21 | 2023-07-14 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-19 | 2024-07-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.