Issued 2026-09-25 at $41.11 · now $41.11 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SNY has typically landed between $37.37 and $45.25 — a range of −9.1% to +10.1% from the issuance price $41.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($41.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $41.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.38 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.7–$43.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.37–$45.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −25.1% | −25.1% | +0.2% |
| 2008-09-11 | −24.9% | −24.9% | +2.4% |
| 2008-09-10 | −24.3% | −24.3% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-20 | +27.9% | +0.0% | +27.9% |
| 2008-11-20 | +27.3% | +0.0% | +29.3% |
| 2020-03-23 | +24.9% | +0.0% | +26.0% |
5,010 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-12-17 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of SAR442970 in Adult Participants With Ulcerative Colitis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-04-05 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Clinical Benefit of Isatuximab in Combination With Bortezomib, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Adults With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Not Eligible for Transplant (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-05-18 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Safety and Efficacy Study of One-time SAR402663 in Adults With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-06-07 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Lot-to-lot Consistency Study of a 21-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Healthy Infants From 2 Months of Age (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-05-03 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Phase 1/2 Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Human Metapneumovirus (RSV+HMPV) Vaccine Candidate in Adults 60 Years of Age and Older (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-05-09 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Induction Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Duvakitug in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of Teplizumab Compared With Placebo in Participants 1 to 25 Years of Age With Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-08-02 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Dose Optimization/Expansion Study of SAR445877 in Adult Chinese Participants With Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-01-22 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Evaluation of Amlitelimab in Participants of Previous Amlitelimab Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis Clinical Trials (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2031-06-13 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Determine the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability and Biological Activity of SAR421869 in Patients With Usher Syndrome Type 1B (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2033-08-29 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase I/II Follow-up Study of SAR422459 in Patients With Stargardt's Macular Degeneration (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.