Issued 2026-09-25 at $425.76 · now $425.76 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SNPS has typically landed between $360.19 and $501.19 — a range of −15.4% to +17.7% from the issuance price $425.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($425.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $425.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $425.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $430.33 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $400.33–$460.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $360.19–$501.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-08-11 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +1.6% |
| 2025-08-14 | −32.0% | −37.1% | +1.5% |
| 2025-08-18 | −32.0% | −38.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +38.9% | +0.0% | +42.9% |
| 2020-03-18 | +35.7% | −5.0% | +35.7% |
| 2020-03-20 | +31.7% | −1.4% | +40.9% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$71.5B
market cap
$4.38
EPS (TTM)
85.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-26
next earnings
Revenue$7.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.50
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$246.84
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$149.78
- Analyst target · range $455.00–$633.00$554.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$425.76
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
74%
+1.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.9%
n=19
May
68%
+3.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
79%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
68%
+4.0%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
89%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
39%
+0.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Sale | 14,604 @ $374.88 | $5.5M | −16.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DE GEUS AART | director | Sale | 24,641 @ $419.44 | $10.3M | −17.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | DE GEUS AART | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $441.76 | $11.0M | −17.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | DE GEUS AART | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $445.55 | $11.1M | −17.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,421 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Sale | 14,603 @ $458.96 | $6.7M | −16.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 3,394 @ $450.02 | $1.5M | −19.1% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,358 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | LEE JANET | director | Sale | 250 @ $530.00 | $133K | −2.0% of holding | −17.4% | −29.4% | 11,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | LEE JANET | director | Sale | 250 @ $510.00 | $128K | −2.0% of holding | −18.0% | −24.3% | 12,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 2,613 @ $460.77 | $1.2M | −12.8% of holding | +8.6% | −8.3% | 17,842 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 1,044 @ $460.77 | $481K | −5.5% of holding | +8.6% | −8.3% | 17,842 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Sale | 9,873 @ $500.90 | $4.9M | −32.5% of holding | −11.5% | −17.8% | 20,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $482.00 | $2.9M | −22.6% of holding | −9.7% | −12.0% | 20,520 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Purchase | 350 @ $425.44 | $149K | +18.0% of holding | +0.6% | −7.1% | 2,291 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 2,612 @ $609.77 | $1.6M | −14.6% of holding | −24.1% | −32.3% | 15,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 1,043 @ $609.77 | $636K | −6.4% of holding | −24.1% | −32.3% | 15,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Sale | 11,366 @ $589.01 | $6.7M | −13.7% of holding | −22.1% | −34.8% | 71,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 4,869 @ $471.19 | $2.3M | −76.6% of holding | +19.3% | −17.4% | 1,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 2,949 @ $471.27 | $1.4M | −66.5% of holding | +19.3% | −17.4% | 1,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 1,192 @ $471.18 | $562K | −44.5% of holding | +19.3% | −17.4% | 1,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 5,224 @ $485.72 | $2.5M | −25.5% of holding | +8.9% | −19.1% | 15,291 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Sale | 2,086 @ $485.72 | $1.0M | −12.0% of holding | +8.9% | −19.1% | 15,291 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Sale | 11,366 @ $457.93 | $5.2M | −13.7% of holding | +7.2% | −21.4% | 71,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | DE GEUS AART | director | Sale | 15,705 @ $444.42 | $7.0M | −11.9% of holding | −1.4% | +20.5% | 116,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Sale | 11,366 @ $463.75 | $5.3M | −13.8% of holding | +2.0% | +23.2% | 70,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 10,322 @ $505.99 | $5.2M | −56.9% of holding | +0.2% | +8.8% | 7,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 6,343 @ $506.07 | $3.2M | −81.3% of holding | +0.2% | +8.8% | 1,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | MAHONEY RICHARD S. | officer | Sale | 4,173 @ $505.97 | $2.1M | −34.8% of holding | +0.2% | +8.8% | 7,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
273 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 14,604 | 91,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 14,604 | 14,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | LEE JANET | director | Withheld for tax | 993 | 17,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 2,283 | 18,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 2,283 | 4,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 24,641 | 145,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | LEE JANET | director | Withheld for tax | 304 | 16,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 24,641 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 699 | 16,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 699 | 1,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 145,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Other acquisition | 27 | 76,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Other acquisition | 27 | 22,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ellow Michael | officer | Other acquisition | 27 | 2,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DE GEUS AART | director | Other acquisition | 22 | 120,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 24,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 145,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | DE GEUS AART | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 49,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | LEE JANET | director | Withheld for tax | 318 | 15,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 729 | 4,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 729 | 16,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 14,603 | 89,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellow Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,007 | 2,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Withheld for tax | 1,492 | 76,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellow Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 536 | 2,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Withheld for tax | 436 | 1,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Withheld for tax | 249 | 22,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | LEE JANET | director | Withheld for tax | 235 | 15,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DE GEUS AART | director | Withheld for tax | 156 | 120,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Option exercise | 720 | 3,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 540 | 2,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellow Michael | officer | Option exercise | 4,048 | 26,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ellow Michael | officer | Option exercise | 1,080 | 25,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 3,310 | 78,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 14,603 | 29,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghazi Sassine | director | Option exercise | 3,310 | 16,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Option exercise | 1,259 | 1,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glaser Shelagh | director | Option exercise | 1,259 | 6,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kankanwadi Sudhindra | director | Option exercise | 720 | 22,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | LEE JANET | director | Option exercise | 540 | 15,817 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-31 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.