Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.67 · now $8.65 (2026-09-17, −0.2% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SNFCA has typically landed between $7.58 and $10.07 — a range of −12.6% to +16.2% from the issuance price $8.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNFCA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.65 (-0.2%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.69 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.16–$9.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.58–$10.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-04-01 | −52.6% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-30 | −47.7% | −53.1% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-02 | −47.4% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-05-05 | +138.3% | +0.0% | +138.3% |
| 2009-05-01 | +127.4% | +0.0% | +145.9% |
| 2009-04-21 | +125.6% | −1.6% | +125.6% |
5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $9.45 | $95K | −23.8% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,973 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-02 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 460 @ $12.22 | $6K | −3.0% of holding | +1.5% | −26.4% | 14,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
298 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Neufeld Alissa | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Option exercise | 888 | 37,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Award / grant | 888 | 1,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Disposition | 616 | 31,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 616 | 32,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Award / grant | 616 | 51,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cook John L | director | Option exercise | 616 | 25,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cook John L | director | Award / grant | 616 | 51,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Option exercise | 616 | 50,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Award / grant | 616 | 1,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Overbaugh Jason G. | director | Option exercise | 21,596 | 110,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Overbaugh Jason G. | director | Option exercise | 30,750 | 49,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Overbaugh Jason G. | director | Disposition | 7,000 | 103,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Option exercise | 4,471 | 48,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Option exercise | 862 | 49,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Quist Adam George | director | Option exercise | 8,934 | 19,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Award / grant | 887 | 2,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Option exercise | 887 | 36,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Disposition | 615 | 41,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Award / grant | 615 | 61,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Award / grant | 615 | 1,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Option exercise | 615 | 44,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 615 | 42,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cook John L | director | Option exercise | 615 | 24,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cook John L | director | Award / grant | 615 | 52,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Cook John L | director | Option exercise | 4,678 | 23,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cook John L | director | Option exercise | 627 | 19,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 627 | 42,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Option exercise | 603 | 35,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Disposition | 627 | 41,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Option exercise | 627 | 43,529 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Overbaugh Jason G. | director | Gift | 4,500 | 88,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Quist S. Andrew | director | Gift | 5,005 | 164,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Stephens Jeffrey Russell | officer | Gift | 10,000 | 34,745 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | MOODY H. CRAIG | director | Gift | 800 | 42,902 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Quist S. Andrew | director | Award / grant | 289,343 | 735,891 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Quist Adam George | director | Award / grant | 289,343 | 783,167 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Quist Adam George | director | Award / grant | 289,343 | 799,068 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Sill Garrett S. | officer | Award / grant | 210,000 | 495,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Overbaugh Jason G. | director | Award / grant | 44,343 | 298,537 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.