Issued 2026-09-16 at $1519.97 · now $1519.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SNDK has typically landed between $980.41 and $2982.19 — a range of −35.5% to +96.2% from the issuance price $1519.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
378 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1519.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNDK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,520 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,520 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,829 (+20.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,431–$2,226
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $980.41–$2,982
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 378 windows spanning 2025-02-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +10.9% |
| 2026-06-26 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +8.8% |
| 2025-03-20 | −47.0% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-31 | +180.2% | +0.0% | +180.2% |
| 2026-01-02 | +152.7% | −0.4% | +152.7% |
| 2025-12-30 | +139.9% | −1.2% | +139.9% |
378 overlapping windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$212.7B
market cap
$28.77
EPS (TTM)
49.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$7.4B
'22'25
Net income−$1.6B
'22'25
Free cash flow−$120M
'22'25
Net margin · by yr-22.3%
'22'25
ROE · by yr-17.8%
'22'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.22
'22'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$49.75
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$984.08
- Analyst target · range $650.00–$3,100$1,750
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,520
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+142.8%
n=1
Feb
100%
+10.3%
n=1
Mar
50%
+0.8%
n=2
Apr
50%
+20.0%
n=2
May
100%
+36.0%
n=2
Jun
100%
+27.2%
n=2
Jul
0%
−26.0%
n=2
Aug
100%
+25.6%
n=2
Sep
50%
+55.4%
n=2
Oct
100%
+77.7%
n=1
Nov
100%
+12.0%
n=1
Dec
100%
+6.3%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $1568.83 | $1.6M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 14,364 @ $1522.59 | $21.9M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 4,080 @ $1528.45 | $6.2M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 423,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $1537.68 | $4.9M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 416,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 3,075 @ $1524.27 | $4.7M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 429,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 2,280 @ $1526.45 | $3.5M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 427,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 1,695 @ $1535.96 | $2.6M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 419,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 1,480 @ $1539.19 | $2.3M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 414,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $1532.17 | $1.8M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 421,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 864 @ $1540.78 | $1.3M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 413,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 700 @ $1535.12 | $1.1M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 421,009 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 360 @ $1541.88 | $555K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 413,410 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 359 @ $1529.36 | $549K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 422,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Goeckeler David | director | Sale | 181 @ $1522.87 | $276K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shek Bernard | officer | Sale | 2,308 @ $1767.33 | $4.1M | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,305 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 2,594 @ $1543.76 | $4.0M | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,732 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 200 @ $1563.68 | $313K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,814 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 160 @ $1537.49 | $246K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,646 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 120 @ $1561.69 | $187K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 120 @ $1553.35 | $186K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,372 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 120 @ $1533.69 | $184K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,966 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1557.79 | $125K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,174 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1547.46 | $124K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,572 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1546.02 | $124K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,652 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1542.67 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,326 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1541.01 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,406 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1539.61 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,486 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1538.41 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,566 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1535.65 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,806 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1534.48 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,886 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1530.52 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,126 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1529.70 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,206 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1526.81 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,326 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1523.61 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,406 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1520.93 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,526 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 78 @ $1555.57 | $121K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,254 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1515.05 | $121K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,726 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 68 @ $1519.23 | $103K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,606 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 52 @ $1517.68 | $79K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,674 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1571.04 | $63K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,734 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1564.40 | $63K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,774 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1558.90 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1554.02 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,332 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1550.48 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,492 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1548.85 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,532 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1532.02 | $61K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,086 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1527.58 | $61K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,286 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1522.10 | $61K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,486 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 40 @ $1513.23 | $61K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,806 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Shek Bernard | officer | Sale | 600 @ $1525.60 | $915K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Shek Bernard | officer | Sale | 600 @ $1162.16 | $697K | −1.9% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Shek Bernard | officer | Sale | 600 @ $2088.00 | $1.3M | −1.9% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Shek Bernard | officer | Sale | 600 @ $1736.00 | $1.0M | −1.8% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 999 @ $1755.31 | $1.8M | −1.8% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 600 @ $1758.40 | $1.1M | −1.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Sale | 401 @ $1757.00 | $705K | −0.7% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Pokorny Michael | officer | Sale | 2,446 @ $1426.18 | $3.5M | −9.9% of holding | +29.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 579 @ $1503.11 | $870K | −16.6% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Suzuki Miyuki | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $627.53 | $2.2M | −26.1% of holding | +2.1% | +126.0% | 9,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 1,271 @ $195.14 | $248K | −26.8% of holding | +40.1% | +693.7% | 3,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 10,540 | 447,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Withheld for tax | 5,838 | 131,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,244 | 40,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,271 | 27,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Pokorny Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,283 | 21,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 49,782 | 457,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 654 | 48,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 212 | 30,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Withheld for tax | 1,589 | 137,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,033 | 507,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 320 | 49,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 108 | 30,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Withheld for tax | 25,655 | 139,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,300 | 508,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 276 | 49,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 163 | 49,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 111 | 30,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Option exercise | 276 | 50,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Option exercise | 276 | 148,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 117 | 32,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Gift | 2,694 | 49,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,569 | 509,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 653 | 54,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 211 | 32,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Withheld for tax | 1,588 | 165,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,032 | 511,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 319 | 55,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 33,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,299 | 512,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 162 | 55,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 109 | 33,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Caulfield Thomas | director | Gift | 9,666 | 4,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Pokorny Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,429 | 24,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,251 | 55,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 41 | 33,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Shek Bernard | officer | Withheld for tax | 117 | 33,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Caulfield Thomas | director | Gift | 14,500 | 2,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Caulfield Thomas | director | Gift | 14,500 | 14,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Goeckeler David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,569 | 513,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Ilkbahar Alper | officer | Withheld for tax | 566 | 58,062 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.