Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.72 · now $5.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SNAP has typically landed between $3.91 and $7.27 — a range of −31.6% to +27.0% from the issuance price $5.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,378 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-03-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.58 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.96–$6.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.91–$7.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,378 windows spanning 2017-03-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −57.2% | −57.2% | +0.8% |
| 2022-05-02 | −52.8% | −56.7% | +2.2% |
| 2022-05-04 | −52.0% | −57.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-09-24 | +77.5% | +0.0% | +77.5% |
| 2020-10-08 | +67.8% | −0.3% | +67.8% |
| 2020-09-25 | +67.2% | +0.0% | +74.8% |
2,378 overlapping windows · 2017-03-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+1.7%
n=9
Feb
44%
+2.4%
n=9
Mar
33%
−6.0%
n=9
Apr
60%
+6.9%
n=10
May
50%
−4.7%
n=10
Jun
70%
+5.6%
n=10
Jul
40%
−4.0%
n=10
Aug
50%
−4.4%
n=10
Sep
50%
−0.8%
n=10
Oct
67%
+3.2%
n=9
Nov
44%
+3.4%
n=9
Dec
56%
+1.6%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $5.35 | $107K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 578,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 11,257 @ $6.00 | $68K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,345,534 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 67,540 @ $5.08 | $343K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,356,791 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 136,504 @ $5.20 | $709K | −5.3% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,424,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hott Douglas | officer | Sale | 131,884 @ $5.20 | $685K | −5.4% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,324,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 54,608 @ $5.20 | $284K | −1.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,972,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 17,336 @ $5.20 | $90K | −2.8% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 598,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $5.25 | $10.5M | −4.8% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,809,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $5.55 | $11.1M | −4.6% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,809,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 24,263 @ $4.72 | $114K | −0.5% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,026,705 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 6,923 @ $5.58 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,050,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 11,958 @ $6.00 | $72K | −0.5% of holding | −22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,560,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 343,945 @ $5.88 | $2.0M | −6.5% of holding | −21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,963,581 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Hott Douglas | officer | Sale | 114,702 @ $5.67 | $650K | −4.5% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,456,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 71,745 @ $5.67 | $407K | −2.7% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,572,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 3,570 @ $5.74 | $20K | −0.7% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 129,493 @ $5.60 | $725K | −4.7% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,644,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Hott Douglas | officer | Sale | 124,209 @ $5.60 | $696K | −4.6% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,571,149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 44,785 @ $5.60 | $251K | −0.9% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,057,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 16,729 @ $5.60 | $94K | −3.2% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 512,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $5.28 | $10.6M | −4.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,012,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $5.44 | $10.9M | −4.1% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,012,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 28,058 @ $6.02 | $169K | −0.5% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,102,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 11,437 @ $6.04 | $69K | −0.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,774,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Spiegel Evan | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $5.04 | $5.0M | −33.0% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,027,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 92,956 @ $4.59 | $427K | −2.4% of holding | +24.2% | +10.8% | 3,799,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 27,743 @ $4.59 | $127K | −0.5% of holding | +24.2% | +10.8% | 5,130,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 3,175 @ $4.84 | $15K | −0.7% of holding | −5.4% | −7.8% | 463,507 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 68,620 @ $4.73 | $325K | −2.4% of holding | −2.7% | −5.3% | 2,785,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Sale | 134,705 @ $4.70 | $633K | −4.5% of holding | +0.8% | −5.0% | 2,854,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 119,339 @ $4.70 | $561K | −2.3% of holding | +0.8% | −5.0% | 5,158,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 63,041 @ $4.70 | $296K | −1.6% of holding | +0.8% | −5.0% | 3,892,617 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 16,499 @ $4.70 | $78K | −3.4% of holding | +0.8% | −5.0% | 466,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $5.36 | $5.4M | −2.0% of holding | −7.3% | −12.8% | 49,313,775 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $5.27 | $5.3M | −1.9% of holding | −4.0% | −10.0% | 50,613,777 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 20,848 @ $7.62 | $159K | −0.4% of holding | −34.4% | −48.2% | 5,277,816 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 23,715 @ $7.83 | $186K | −0.8% of holding | −37.6% | −50.9% | 2,972,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Spiegel Evan | director | Sale | 1,220,165 @ $8.25 | $10.1M | −4.5% of holding | −28.1% | −52.8% | 25,851,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Spiegel Evan | director | Sale | 1,258,850 @ $8.00 | $10.1M | −4.3% of holding | −14.8% | −49.0% | 27,824,340 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 3,783 @ $7.34 | $28K | −0.8% of holding | −3.2% | −50.1% | 483,181 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 34,535 @ $7.21 | $249K | −1.1% of holding | −0.0% | −47.7% | 2,995,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 28,137 @ $7.21 | $203K | −0.5% of holding | −0.0% | −47.7% | 5,298,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 3,090 @ $7.22 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | −0.0% | −47.7% | 486,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $7.33 | $51K | −1.4% of holding | +4.9% | −44.2% | 490,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Spiegel Evan | director | Sale | 1,258,600 @ $8.01 | $10.1M | −4.1% of holding | +3.4% | −39.7% | 29,083,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Spiegel Evan | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $8.00 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +8.1% | −37.4% | 30,341,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 109,372 @ $8.34 | $912K | −2.0% of holding | −9.2% | −43.3% | 5,326,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Sale | 70,882 @ $8.34 | $591K | −3.7% of holding | −9.2% | −43.3% | 1,854,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 62,868 @ $8.34 | $524K | −2.0% of holding | −9.2% | −43.3% | 3,030,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 12,699 @ $8.34 | $106K | −2.6% of holding | −9.2% | −43.3% | 466,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 16,412 @ $8.40 | $138K | −0.5% of holding | −15.0% | −45.1% | 3,093,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $8.00 | $8.0M | −1.9% of holding | −5.3% | −43.0% | 51,911,126 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $7.73 | $186K | −4.7% of holding | −2.2% | −28.4% | 490,454 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 28,238 @ $7.83 | $221K | −0.5% of holding | +8.7% | −30.6% | 5,436,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $7.86 | $189K | −4.5% of holding | −2.8% | −35.4% | 514,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Andersen Derek | officer | Sale | 33,871 @ $7.56 | $256K | −1.1% of holding | +1.1% | −41.1% | 3,109,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Mohan Ajit | officer | Sale | 27,595 @ $7.56 | $209K | −0.5% of holding | +1.1% | −41.1% | 5,464,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Sale | 14,290 @ $7.58 | $108K | −0.7% of holding | +1.1% | −41.1% | 1,939,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Sale | 2,501 @ $7.56 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | +1.1% | −41.1% | 479,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $7.16 | $172K | −4.4% of holding | +4.4% | −32.5% | 525,254 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Spence Patrick | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 118,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wood Luke | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 60,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vargas Fidel | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 130,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 67,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MILLER SCOTT D | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 219,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 65,081 | 615,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thorpe Poppy | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 142,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Coffey Kelly | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 137,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Coles Joanna | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 132,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Jenkins Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 112,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Lanzone James | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 102,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Lynton Michael | director | Award / grant | 46,905 | 197,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Gift | 1,223,340 | 38,586,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 2,866,669 | 43,809,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 333,438 | 46,676,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 2,866,669 | 2,866,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 2,533,231 | 1,317,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 2,533,231 | 46,343,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Other acquisition | 333,438 | 815,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wood Luke | director | Award / grant | 13,186 | 13,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 41,119 | 550,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Gift | 1,202,533 | 43,809,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hott Douglas | officer | Award / grant | 2,450,659 | 2,695,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 66,033 | 529,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Gift | 301,451 | 49,012,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Gift | 300,002 | 50,313,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Andersen Derek | officer | Award / grant | 983,607 | 3,955,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Spiegel Evan | director | Gift | 364,078 | 25,487,274 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Award / grant | 20,653 | 20,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Spiegel Evan | director | Gift | 752,823 | 27,071,517 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Briers Zachary M | officer | Award / grant | 2,988,793 | 2,988,793 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 30,451 | 497,054 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 60,094 | 1,794,888 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 60,094 | 550,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Murphy Robert C. | director | Gift | 297,349 | 51,613,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 13,200 | 538,454 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 13,200 | 1,925,864 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Morrow Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 45,716 | 481,803 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 62,270 | 549,254 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | O'Sullivan Michael J. | officer | Other acquisition | 62,270 | 1,953,354 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.