Issued 2026-09-16 at $372.98 · now $372.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SNA has typically landed between $344.57 and $410.48 — a range of −7.6% to +10.1% from the issuance price $372.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($372.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $372.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $372.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $377.21 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $362.65–$391.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $344.57–$410.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −38.9% | −38.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-09 | +43.9% | +0.0% | +43.9% |
| 2009-07-10 | +40.4% | −0.2% | +42.1% |
| 2009-07-08 | +40.3% | +0.0% | +40.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$20.9B
market cap
$19.60
EPS (TTM)
20.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$5.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.22
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$369.24
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$600.80
- Analyst target · range $415.00–$461.00$420.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$372.98
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Apr
79%
+5.5%
n=19
May
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
78%
+3.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $400.00 | $320K | −34.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 9,720 @ $399.60 | $3.9M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 872,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 7,475 @ $399.01 | $3.0M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 882,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 3,454 @ $400.73 | $1.4M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 869,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 1,640 @ $401.93 | $659K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 867,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 600 @ $397.50 | $239K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 890,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 2,564 @ $403.90 | $1.0M | −2.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,164 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 1,447 @ $403.14 | $583K | −1.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 831 @ $405.94 | $337K | −0.7% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,892 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 441 @ $404.95 | $179K | −0.4% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,723 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 208 @ $406.98 | $85K | −0.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 40 @ $409.69 | $16K | −0.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,644 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Sale | 2,275 @ $413.37 | $940K | −67.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Sale | 1,952 @ $413.99 | $808K | −36.6% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,381 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Sale | 125 @ $413.92 | $52K | −11.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Sale | 1,878 @ $423.00 | $794K | −12.1% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Chambers Timothy L | officer | Sale | 9,091 @ $419.36 | $3.8M | −30.0% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,243 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Chambers Timothy L | officer | Sale | 20 @ $420.00 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | Chambers Timothy L | officer | Sale | 389 @ $419.43 | $163K | −1.8% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Miller Richard Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $405.92 | $812K | −30.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Arregui Jesus | officer | Sale | 2,676 @ $383.72 | $1.0M | −33.0% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Arregui Jesus | officer | Sale | 602 @ $384.55 | $232K | −11.1% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Arregui Jesus | officer | Sale | 573 @ $382.84 | $219K | −6.6% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Miller Richard Thomas | officer | Sale | 427 @ $389.55 | $166K | −8.6% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Arregui Jesus | officer | Sale | 400 @ $385.83 | $154K | −8.3% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 1,330 @ $379.27 | $504K | −1.1% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,158 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 3,029 @ $367.09 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,162 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 1,674 @ $367.96 | $616K | −1.4% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,488 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 1,010 @ $366.20 | $370K | −0.8% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,191 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 6,957 @ $376.77 | $2.6M | −0.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 859,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 6,850 @ $375.83 | $2.6M | −0.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 3,795 @ $374.77 | $1.4M | −0.4% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 873,594 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 2,480 @ $377.52 | $936K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 857,307 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 1,581 @ $372.53 | $589K | −0.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 878,093 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 704 @ $374.20 | $263K | −0.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 877,389 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 640 @ $371.28 | $238K | −0.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 879,674 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 389 @ $378.59 | $147K | −0.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 856,918 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Lemerand June C | officer | Sale | 1,378 @ $387.57 | $534K | −32.1% of holding | +0.4% | −7.6% | 2,913 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 5,777 @ $381.36 | $2.2M | −0.7% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 864,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 4,538 @ $382.19 | $1.7M | −0.5% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 859,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 3,933 @ $384.22 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 852,093 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 3,652 @ $385.26 | $1.4M | −0.4% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 848,441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 3,450 @ $383.26 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 856,026 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $386.35 | $386K | −0.1% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 847,441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 479 @ $387.00 | $185K | −0.1% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 846,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Sale | 400 @ $388.68 | $155K | −0.0% of holding | −1.2% | −8.8% | 846,562 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 3,721 @ $381.93 | $1.4M | −3.0% of holding | −1.4% | −8.7% | 118,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 1,778 @ $381.24 | $678K | −1.4% of holding | −1.4% | −8.7% | 122,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 984 @ $382.78 | $377K | −0.8% of holding | −1.4% | −8.7% | 117,743 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Sale | 560 @ $384.14 | $215K | −0.5% of holding | −1.4% | −8.7% | 117,183 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
250 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 7,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 7,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 7,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Adams David Charles | director | Gift | 1,732 | 7,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 2,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | OZOLINS MARTY V. | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Option exercise | 33,750 | 890,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Option exercise | 33,750 | 33,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Option exercise | 33,750 | 33,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Option exercise | 33,750 | 33,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | PINCHUK NICHOLAS T | director | Option exercise | 33,750 | 33,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 126,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pagliari Aldo John | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 4,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 5,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lemerand June C | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 1,558 | 15,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 160 | 15,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 160 | 15,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 160 | 2,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 1,558 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 160 | 2,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Boyd Iain | officer | Option exercise | 160 | 1,998 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-21 | 2024-02-01 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2024-08-19 | 2024-07-05 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-06 | 2024-02-01 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-06 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-11-08 | 2023-11-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-10 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2022-04-08 | 2022-03-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.